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I think it is. I don't believe there is any way the chance of something happening can be expressed as a number. In a world of infinite variables, how can events be reduced to something as primitive as numbers?

probability is a lie...........which has recently been proven with quantum physics/photons.

given every possible route.......all are just as likely.......if there are three routes.......there's a 33.33333333% chance..........if there are only two there's a 50% chance.........it's called chaos.

LOL!That picture under your name remains me of the movie "The Shinning"When he says "Here's johnny!JM I am not sure if I under this subject anyone care to exclaim it to me?JM

that's exactly it.

It is?Cool!JM

What are you talking about? You're contradicting yourself. Probability is what says that given three equally likely routes, each has a 1/3 chance of happening (this is the principle of indifference, if anyone cares), but you think probability is a lie?

I have no idea what the original poster is really asking. The laws of probability are well-defined, and have been tested time and time again. You can use impericle data to determine what the probability of something is, and how the things you do relate to it. If you mean that you can't take into account every varioable, no ****. That doesn't make probability subjective in any way.

no Gregory......you are mistaken.

what I stated was the laws of percentage.........which is completely opposite from probability.

Since you nodded off in class alot.......I'll share with you.

percentage - each time a test is run......no matter what the previous results, all possible outcomes have the exact same chance of occuring. That chance is the whole 100% divided by the exact number of possible outcomes.

probability - a test is run multiple times and the outcome determined for each. Taking into account the results the previous times the test was run, a prediction is made as to what the outcome will be based on previous results.........which is where the term "pattern" comes in.

percentage - all possible outcomes have the exact same chance of being the result.

probability - previous data is taken into account and a hypothesis about the future results are made based on that data........searching for patterns that favor one possible outcome over the others.


sue your university if you did not learn that.....get your tuition back......it's basic, simple terms of scientific method.

also



need to catch up on your quantum too..........

quantum physics has basically labelled probability null and void......it cannot be applied to anything at the quantum level, at all......everything is pure chaos at the quantum level. Since the theory does not hold true to all things anymore.......it has been tossed out for being flawed.....

You're a bit of a jackass, aren't you? The General Theory of Relativity doesn't work on the Quantum level either. Have physicists thrown that out, too, without me noticing?

Regarding the definition of probability you just made up ... well, you made it up. Not much else to say, really.

Edit: On reflection, you didn't "make up" that definition, but you are erronous in believing that it's the only valid one. It's not the definition used in classical (a priori) probability, for example.

Ay time you want to stop looking stupid try telling us what you mean by "at the quantum level."

why know they havn't as it pertains to our visual world......it has however been undermined alot, although it is still the best working theory (even as flawed as it is, pointed out by you) and will continue to be used as a model until an acceptable theory that covers both worlds arises.



glad to see you edited that........I'd hate to think I wasted alot of money to just make stuff up off the top of my head.

Here Mr Zero.........I did a quick little google search for you........

boy don't I look stupid

http://www.cosmopolis.com/topics/quantum-nonlocality.html

excerpt:

"At the quantum level, "particles" do not possess definite, deterministic qualities until they are measured"

yes, you look stupid.

I asked you what you meant by "at the quantum level." and you resorted to dictionary definitions of each individual word. "At the quantum level" is a trendy buzz word phrase you've used a few times and you obviously think it sounds impressive. Any time you want to tell me what you MEAN by it - i'm listening: till then, you look stupid.

The fact that you had to google for an answer, dont mind admitting that you had to do it means, yes, you guessed it - you look stupid.

The fact that you googled and still couldnt come up with anything - (key phrase "until they are measured" - probability is a system of measurement. Saying "if you dont measure it then probability does work" isn't coherent and makes you look... ah you know where I'm going with this already.

Dont misinterpret me : I'm not saying your initial argument is entirely incorrect, I'm just saying you obviously dont understand it.






makes you look stupid.

actually I do understand it.........excuse me for using universally acceptable terminology that most people who have studied physics at all understand.

I was actually baffled by you not understanding.......which is why I googled the term "quantum level" to show you that I'm not the only one who uses such terminology, many do and is quite accepted..........unless ofcourse you're in a heated meeting with physics professors.

in general........quantum level or quantum world refers to the microscopic world we are unable to see with our un-aided eye...........

I don't pretend to be an expert in this, so correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't it more specifically anything below the Planck length?

Spot on cowboy!

no

chance of something happening:

0.2

chance of something NOT happening:

0.8

0.2+0.8 = 1

so we can say it is inevitable that this event either happens, or does not happen

that is a FACT

just mebbe... the numbers aren't very accurate

I think you're referring to the _accuracy_ of probability of an event in non-perfect conditions, i.e. the real world.

Yes, you'll never get it 100% correct, especially with complex situations, but thats true for most maths and sciences when it comes to the real world.

oh come on -


FINE:

In which case please explain what the difference between sub-quantum length* and "quantum level" is.


* IE Planck Length

Yes. Yes, he is.

Kids, quit it. Take it to PMs.

sorry boss.

isn't quantum level something to do with gravitational photons and something to do with atoms or something smaller then a atom?


Forgive me its been two years sine i did Quantum Mechanics as a elective at uni and i didn't do very well in it

cry but it's better on forums

Mr Zero.........I've spent my time in the classroom......so have you.......I'm not taking you're little test. I'm tired and need to go to bed.......I have to be up for work in 4 hours.

I came into this thread to discuss the topic.......not answer physics questions from you because you believe you're the only one who ever went to school and actually paid attention.

I'll be on tomorrow......we can discuss then. Reply to my PM and we can discuss as much as you want at my leisure.

ash007.........yes, quantum covers both atomic and sub-atomic........

now I'm out.

OK, I've thought about this, and decided to explain it thusly:

probability is a numerical value given to the chances of an event happening, based on the known data. So if i told you there were 2 out comes from flipping a coin, you could say the probably of heads to tails respectively is:

50:50

suppose i extended your knowledge.... the head's side weighs more, and is therefore more likely to land face down, you could say:

49:51

then i told you the point at which the person was flicking the coin, the angle, the strength, the air resistance... suppose i gave you every variable that would affect the flip of this coin? then we could say:

0:100

see, probability isn't exact. it's just a numberical value, based on what we know. if we knew everything, then every event could be predicted, and every event would have a value of 1 or 0.

since we don't know everything, we must use the given data to assess a value between 0 and 1

You can't take _all_ factors into account, there are just too many. One obvious one would be the wind speed, which could possibly affect the toss.

Probability numbers are only useful in a non-existent "perfect world".

wind speed is a terrible example, because the speed could be 20mph, or 20.0001mph or 20.0002mph... you get the idea

and what is a "perfect world", raz?

Actually wind speed is a good example of something unpredictable affecting the outcome.

The perfect non-existent theoretical world would be one where you can control, or at least know of, all the factors that would affect the outcome.

Tell that to the people who get rich running loteries.

in a perfect world, probability wouldn't exist at all... since there's no "chance" of it happening, we know if it happens or not.

in a perfect world, probability = 1 or 0.... it is in an imperfect world where probability becomes useful for prediction.

Raz and others: It's true that you can only get 100% accurate results in perfect (mathematical) situations, but that doesn't mean that the results you get in the real world are useless. You can never know exactly how long something is, because no ruler is perfect, but the measurements you get are still useful; it's the same sort of thing with probability.

Which is true, and which is why probability is only good for guesstimates.

quite right gregory

probability is the chance of something happening based on given variables...

but we must remember, the TRUE probability of an event is 1 or 0, but we can't give those numbers until AFTER the event has happened, or until we know EVERY variable

Then its not probability, but eventuality.

well if we get every variable prior to the event, and decide if it happens or not, it's probability

well, it's certainty

since its not probable it will happen.... it's certain

Read Brave New World. It's the closest thing to a utopia that could ever be achieved.

There are lots of perfect worlds. The only thing bad about them is that they are all imaginary.

If the world was perfect, there would be no sin in it, so anybody here who has ever done anything wrong would not exist in it.

That's exactly what I meant. This person just expressed it better. I don't think anyone can refute this, can they?

I believe you are wrong.... because if the perfect world is without sin.. then the people there are stupid...don't you think??? people can't learn at all...think before you post next time.....

People that life in a "perfect" world don'T have to sin. Although again as in brave new world people should have the right to sin. This is all theoretical though a perfect world is not possible, and if you look at Nova Atlantis or Utopia you see that the idea of a perfect world changes too.

umm..no. you are quite wrong.
first of all...'infinite' itself is a concept. an 'infinit' ammount of variables does not exist. however large, it will ALWAYS stop somewhere. based on that, you can ALWAYS express a probability in number...a percentage, that's what it is. a fraction: the favorable cases of an event divided by the possible cases of the event, equals the probability of that event.

you learn this in school

School is stupid.

no...you are, without it

Well Dexx you are PROBABLY right there is an ending amount of variables but if we don't know all the variables, and we probably don't, it is (IMO) impossible to give a numeric probability that is a 100% correct.

yes....but ..mathematically...you can work with infinity as a number.
with operations....the whole deal