Ethan should win IMO.
Bond will win due to luck (his greatest power) plus he is BOND. He could pimp slap Thanos with the greatest ease.
Seriously, James Bond has the greatest jobber aura of all. Things just fall perfectly for him ....he always hits both the 'good' woman and the 'evil' woman, his foes always ALMOST kill him before making the most idiotic error possible at that moment, and he always looks immaculately dressed even when he should be soiled and sweaty and ruffled up!
His jobber aura is the greatest!
Greater than Doom's.
Greater than Batman's.
Greater than Wolverine's.
Goodness, even greater than the all-powerful aura of Captain America.
James Bond trumps all, and does so in style.
The guy is even immortal .....Ian Fleming killed him in the novel 'From Russia with Love' (although in the movie obviously that was not part of it), and upon having some regret brought Bond back in the novel Dr. No.
Thus Bond is even able to come back Deadpool style!
Ethan is good, hanging off mountains and blowing up stuff, but he needs a serious upgrade to his jobber aura to even try and tie Bond's shoelaces. I even bet Ethan could dodge the omnipotent shield of Captain America nor bend the all-cutting claws (claws I tell you) that Wolverine snikts-out and snikts-in every fourth panel or so.