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http://www.physorg.com/news/2011-02-ibm-watson-jeopardy-champs_1.html

Watching the right now.

It did so well up until the first commercial break and then suddenly its performance crashed.

Jennings lost the first round with Rutter and Watson tied at $5000.

I like the avatar they made. You can see Watson think, be elated by success, and be sad when it makes a mistake.

Well, that was quick. They spent a long time talking about Watson so there wasn't enough time for the whole game to run in one day.

If Watson wins, I do hope Jennings and Rutter don't accuse it of cheating like that whiny little ***** Kasparov.

There are two more days of this before it's done...which is why it isn't finished.

Originally posted by Robtard
If Watson wins, I do hope Jennings and Rutter don't accuse it of cheating like that whiny little ***** Kasparov.

They won't: they were not raised in the USSR.

Originally posted by dadudemon
They won't: they were not raised in the USSR.

TAKE THAT COMMUNISM!

watched this tonight...

more answers should have been answered instead of them talking about Watson

What the hell are you guys talking about?

Originally posted by skekUng
What the hell are you guys talking about?

It's totally not in the link at the top.

Originally posted by Symmetric Chaos
It's totally not in the link at the top.

So, you guys are on the edge of your seats over a computer playing a gameshow? You do know those wires are connected to something, right?

Originally posted by inimalist
TAKE THAT COMMUNISM!

Originally posted by skekUng
So, you guys are on the edge of your seats over a computer playing a gameshow? You do know those wires are connected to something, right?

What is a power source?

Or a CPU.

Originally posted by skekUng
Or a CPU.

Twenty server sized computers in fact.

Ooo, game's on!

I weep for humanity.

Also, triple post!

is he/it cleaning up again?

Watson nearly wiped the floor with those wetwares.

/terror

Originally posted by inimalist
is he/it cleaning up again?

Destroyed both of them (going into Final Jeopardy W 36000, J 2200, R 5400). Missed the Final Jeopardy but had the foresight to only wager $923.

36000?

jesusWTFingchrist

"Watson" could have safely wagered $25,199 and still would not have lost if Rutler bet it all and won. I wonder what the logic was behind him wagering just a little bit? (I did not watch it, just going off of what Sym said.)

Originally posted by inimalist
36000?

jesusWTFingchrist

For reference, though, the record for a single game is 77000 (set in 2010). http://www.denverpost.com/nationworld/ci_16076411

They have one more game to play. If Watson can set a record, that would be really amazing, though the way it plays it could probably keep playing forever without losing a game.

A talking database vs nervous, sweaty primates, in a glorified trivia contest.

I think Watson's ready for Big Brother 13.

Originally posted by dadudemon
"Watson" could have safely wagered $25,199 and still would not have lost if Rutler bet it all and won. I wonder what the logic was behind him wagering just a little bit? (I did not watch it, just going off of what Sym said.)

It has algorithms gauge its own confidence and, given its comically specific Daily Double selections, must have an algorithm for optimizing how much money it bets. So Watson must have had very low confidence on its knowledge of cities, possibly adjusted for knowing it was Final Jeopardy and the question would be especially hard.

Interestingly both Rutter and Jennings got the answer right.

Originally posted by inimalist
36000?

jesusWTFingchrist

"Resistance is futile, bitches."

They should program Watson to type that out in the beginning of next game.

Originally posted by Symmetric Chaos
It has algorithms gauge its own confidence and, given its comically specific Daily Double selections, must have an algorithm for optimizing how much money it bets. So Watson must have had very low confidence on its knowledge of cities, possibly adjusted for knowing it was Final Jeopardy and the question would be especially hard.

Interestingly both Rutter and Jennings got the answer right.

What was the question?

Additionally, they need to adjust the algorithm to be more "encompassing" so it can take into consideration the other's votes. But, that makes sense that they would adjust the algorithm to only bet on a magnitude of confidence, maximizing "earnings."

Originally posted by Symmetric Chaos
For reference, though, the record for a single game is 77000 (set in 2010). http://www.denverpost.com/nationworld/ci_16076411

They have one more game to play. If Watson can set a record, that would be really amazing, though the way it plays it could probably keep playing forever without losing a game.

I was talking with a friend in my lab about this

so amazing, like seriously amazing. It is weird though, he was saying that questions that use sarcasm or puns tended to trick the computer, because these things are much harder to understand than "simple" language. I'm sure they could skew the questions such that it had a much harder time with them (or, by chance alone, we'd expect that on any given week).

still, so amazing

Originally posted by dadudemon
What was the question?

The answer is: Its largest airport is named for a World War II hero; its second largest, for a World War II battle.

Both humans said "Chicago". Watson said "What is Toronto?????"

Originally posted by dadudemon
What was the question?

Additionally, they need to adjust the algorithm to be more "encompassing" so it can take into consideration the other's votes. But, that makes sense that they would adjust the algorithm to only bet on a magnitude of confidence, maximizing "earnings."

if im not mistaken, the Watson program is more about being able to interact with humans in a linguistic manner

the type of probabilistic max-min stuff that it would take to do that is trivial for programming, isn't it? Like, an algorhythm that said "X has 2000 dollars, do not bet so much as to go below 4001 dollars" shouldn't be hard, in theory? (no idea about this stuff personally, lol)

LoL, fail. A Canadian war hero? WTF was it thinking.

Originally posted by Symmetric Chaos
Both humans said "Chicago". Watson said "What is Toronto?????"

Lester B Pearson just decided to haunt that machine

Originally posted by Robtard
LoL, fail. A Canadian war hero? WTF was it thinking.

The answer is:

The nationality of the man who shot down the Red Barron

or

The nationality of the man who single handedly rescued Holland from Nazis

or

The nationality of the only Western military leader who wanted to end the genocide in Rwanda



also: soooooo mad!

Originally posted by inimalist
if im not mistaken, the Watson program is more about being able to interact with humans in a linguistic manner I believe that's exactly what this is about. It's vs . Otherwise, this really would be a slaughter.

Originally posted by inimalist
if im not mistaken, the Watson program is more about being able to interact with humans in a linguistic manner

the type of probabilistic max-min stuff that it would take to do that is trivial for programming, isn't it? Like, an algorhythm that said "X has 2000 dollars, do not bet so much as to go below 4001 dollars" shouldn't be hard, in theory? (no idea about this stuff personally, lol)

Yes. It would be what some call a "subroutine."

It's a miniature program within a program.


To do the "money" bet thing.


It would be similar to this:

Retrieve "current earnings."

Wager "current earnings"*"probability value" such that x*"probability value is < or = "current earnings."

Then, you have a separate routine (massive) for the probability value calculator (that's the one that shows 3 answers with a weight for each). And a separate program (actually, multiple) for the current earnings.


That math portion is very easy...the hard part is the building of the probability program (which would be massive amounts of code because it is the "meat" of the entire program" and the "current earnings" portion because that would be comprised of multiple smaller programs.)

Here's a cheat Watson is capable of that a lot of people missed. It has figured out the Daily Double patterns that Jeopardy! uses based on all the games it has memorized. Human players have tried the same tactic but Watson managed to hit a pretty incredibly number during its first game.

http://live.washingtonpost.com/jeopardy-ken-jennings.html#question-17

Originally posted by Symmetric Chaos
Here's a cheat Watson is capable of that a lot of people missed. It has figured out the Daily Double patterns that Jeopardy! uses based on all the games it has memorized. Human players have tried the same tactic but Watson managed to hit a pretty incredibly number during its first game.

http://live.washingtonpost.com/jeopardy-ken-jennings.html#question-17 I bet he is connected to a network during the game.

Originally posted by chomperx9
I bet he is connected to a network during the game.

It was mentioned, in very explicit terms, that he is not connected to the internet.


However, he is definitely "networked." He's connected to his own network. How else is information going to get to and from each "smaller" server?

Originally posted by dadudemon
It was mentioned, in very explicit terms, that he is not connected to the internet.


However, he is definitely "networked." He's connected to his own network. How else is information going to get to and from each "smaller" server? well we dont know how fast he is capable of scanning the question and searching for the answer online, if he was connected to the net. He can probably google something 100 times faster than we can.

Originally posted by chomperx9
well we dont know how fast he is capable of scanning the question and searching for the answer online, if he was connected to the net. He can probably google something 100 times faster than we can.

He's not connected to the internet at all. He would be much slower if he had to do that.

Originally posted by chomperx9
well we dont know how fast he is capable of scanning the question and searching for the answer online, if he was connected to the net. He can probably google something 100 times faster than we can.

thats the thing, he is built using search algorithms far superior to anything google uses, and much more specific to the understanding of language.

google might be able to match words or sounds, but it can't interpret the meaning of a sentence, which is what Watson needs to do. If you typed a jeopardy question verbatim into a google search bar, I highly doubt you would get answers superior to human contestants most times.

so, I watched a clip of the final jeopardy question...

Watson guessed Toronto to a question that was specifically about US cities. This means that Watson either cannot form related connections between concepts like "this city is in this nation", or, is unable to filter items by particular qualities...

I know it is designed more as a language understanding machine, but that seems like a huge flaw... I'd be interested in the process it went through to guess "Toronto"... and why it couldn't restrict its search to only cities located in the US. All I mean, is given the category of "US cities", Toronto has a 100% chance of being the wrong answer.

Originally posted by inimalist
so, I watched a clip of the final jeopardy question...

Watson guessed Toronto to a question that was specifically about US cities. This means that Watson either cannot form related connections between concepts like "this city is in this nation", or, is unable to filter items by particular qualities...

I know it is designed more as a language understanding machine, but that seems like a huge flaw... I'd be interested in the process it went through to guess "Toronto"... and why it couldn't restrict its search to only cities located in the US. All I mean, is given the category of "US cities", Toronto has a 100% chance of being the wrong answer.
Seems more likely just a small glitch... given the other questions it answered it obviously is sophisticated enough to understand simple linguistic combination like "this goes in this".

but such a connection isn't as "simple" as it sounds

the computer would require some sense of "location" to "understand"

it could be just a small glitch, it is interesting though. It selected an answer that had no possibility of being correct

Yeah, but i think it clearly showed that it understood concepts on that tier of complexity, so I find it difficult to think that that was the one thing that they weren't able to get it to do. Let alone that they would put it on the show knowing it didn't have the capability to parse language that was extremely likely to be important to questions asked.

Originally posted by inimalist
so, I watched a clip of the final jeopardy question...

Watson guessed Toronto to a question that was specifically about US cities. This means that Watson either cannot form related connections between concepts like "this city is in this nation", or, is unable to filter items by particular qualities...

I know it is designed more as a language understanding machine, but that seems like a huge flaw... I'd be interested in the process it went through to guess "Toronto"... and why it couldn't restrict its search to only cities located in the US. All I mean, is given the category of "US cities", Toronto has a 100% chance of being the wrong answer. Toronto cant have a 100% chance of being the wrong answer because there are 3 towns in the US named toronto.

Originally posted by chomperx9
Toronto cant have a 100% chance of being the wrong answer because there are 3 towns in the US named toronto.

inimalist got owned.

Originally posted by chomperx9
Toronto cant have a 100% chance of being the wrong answer because there are 3 towns in the US named toronto.

I was going to say the same thing but I realized that, in the context of the question, inimalist is still correct: Watson would have a 100% chance of being incorrect if he named a non-US City as his answer. Toronto Canada is definitely not right. (Did he say "Toronto Canada, though?)

Originally posted by dadudemon
I was going to say the same thing but I realized that, in the context of the question, inimalist is still correct: Watson would have a 100% chance of being incorrect if he named a non-US City as his answer. Toronto Canada is definitely not right. (Did he say "Toronto Canada, though?) He only said Toronto

Originally posted by chomperx9
He only said Toronto

I just did some major internet researching for the lulz, and the cities in the U.S that have Toronto for name's airports don't have names associated with figures or events from WWII, so I'm gonna say that the robot was wrong. Maybe Skynet won't be getting built after all....

Originally posted by Lestov16
I just did some major internet researching for the lulz, and the cities in the U.S that have Toronto for name's airports don't have names associated with figures or events from WWII, so I'm gonna say that the robot was wrong. Maybe Skynet won't be getting built after all....

Obviously it was wrong. That's not the issue. The point of contention is if it should have discarded Toronto as an answer automatically because it isn't in the US. There are, in fact, places in the US called Toronto.

Originally posted by Symmetric Chaos
inimalist got owned.

judges would have also accepted:

all incorrect answers had a 100% chance of being wrong

Originally posted by Lestov16
I just did some major internet researching for the lulz, and the cities in the U.S that have Toronto for name's airports don't have names associated with figures or events from WWII, so I'm gonna say that the robot was wrong. Maybe Skynet won't be getting built after all.... just because it got one wrong answer that doesnt mean its not capable of accessing other private network servers and gathering personal data all across the net. and plus some of the skynet bots were even dumber than Watson. not talking about Arnold T-800 or TX. was refering to the ones on the wheels like in Terminator 3. the T-14 or even the skynet bike in the last movie. it couldnt even jump over a Wire.

Originally posted by chomperx9
just because it got one wrong answer that doesnt mean its not capable of accessing other private network servers and gathering personal data all across the net.

We know it's not able to do that because it's not built to do that (checking the whole internet is not a good method of producing answers anyway) and it was confirmed by the state gaming commission to be unconnected to it. Watson can no more search the internet than you or I can shoot lasers from our eyes.

Originally posted by Symmetric Chaos
We know it's not able to do that because it's not built to do that (checking the whole internet is not a good method of producing answers anyway) and it was confirmed by the state gaming commission to be unconnected to it. Watson can no more search the internet than you or I can shoot lasers from our eyes. they will upgrade him at some point

This comic, I saw from a friend is made of win and leaves room, yet, for human "win":

http://i.imgur.com/lZd0q.jpg

I saw one where the categories for Double Jeopardy included "human emotions" and "SQL injection attacks".

lol

http://ken-jennings.com/blog/?p=2578

Rargh, I read this amazing article about "Watson" about a year or so ago, it went into the specifics of how it works and some alternate possibilities, but I can't find it now.

Found it: http://www.nytimes.com/2010/06/20/magazine/20Computer-t.html?_r=1&hp


Didn't read it again, but at the time it impressed me a lot.