UFC 129 Predictions and Discussion

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long pig
Here is the main fights. My predictions are listed below each fight. -GSP VS JAKE SHIELDS- Unlike most, I know Shields can win this very quickly. Georges can't. But, I believe this will go to the judges, leaving GSP with a hard won UD. -JOSE ALDO V MARK HOMINICK- True enough Mark is technically the best striker in the FW division. And he will make it out of the 1st and 2nd round, but not the third. 3rd TKO. -RANDY C. V MACHIDA- Randy retires the winner of a split decision. -NATE DIAZ V RORY MCDONALD- Nate wins 3RD SUB . -BEN HENDERSON V BOCEK- HENDERSON VIA SUB 3RD Your thoughts on the main as well as the under cards?

Darth Angel
There are a topic for this already you know?

Anyway:

GSP vs Shields: I am betting in another jab festival. Most likely a unanimous decision for GSP. If it ends up in the ground though, Shields may pull a submission victory.

Aldo vs Hominick: Hmm, Aldo by 2nd round KO/submission probably

Randy vs Machida: I am betting on 3rd round KO for Machida. If he doesn't ge the KO then Randy by decision

Diaz vs McDonald: Diaz by submission probably

Henderson vs Bocek: Ah, who cares lol. Maybe henderson.

batdude123
GSP by 3rd round TKO.
Aldo by 2nd round submission.
Machida by UD (though I REEEAALLLY want Randy to retire on a win sad).
Nate Diaz by 2nd round TKO.
Ben Henderson by UD.

Darth Angel
Originally posted by batdude123
GSP by 3rd round TKO

Wishful thinking? :P

batdude123
That's just how I see it in all honesty. I don't think Jake will be able to take GSP down, and he's going to be lit up on the feet. Wishful thinking would be me saying Georges will TKO him in the 2nd, but I'm giving Shields the benefit of the doubt.

Dr. Leg Kick
And all this time I thought it was Kampmann vs GSP for the title. -_- lol

Poor Kampmann, two bad decisions in a row. His time will come.

Quiero Mota
Originally posted by Dr. Leg Kick
And all this time I thought it was Kampmann vs GSP for the title. -_- lol

Poor Kampmann, two bad decisions in a row. His time will come.

In your defense, the Shields/Kampmann fight could have gone either way. I kinda suspect that the judges were playing favorites.

batdude123
Without a doubt Shields was brought in to win against Kampmann in order to set up a fight with GSP.

Mindset
Shields is going to win.

I'll bet batdude's life on it.

batdude123
Originally posted by Mindset
Shields is going to win.

I'll bet batdude's life on it.

Looks like I'm safe.

Mindset
So you think Shields will win too?

Dr. Leg Kick
I'm just saying, Shields landed 4 out of 15 takedown attempts against Kampmann. And I understand he's training with Chael at the moment, but if MMA math works in this situation, Shields should technically have tons of difficulty taking down GSP.

Mindset
You can't be serious.

batdude123
Why the hell wouldn't he be? Surely you can't be serious about Shields winning...

Mindset
Surely you didn't just go full retard.

StyleTime
Mindset, you're the best there is at what you do.

batdude123
Originally posted by StyleTime
Mindset, you're the best there is at what you do.

Originally posted by Mindset
go full retard.

Mindset
batdude is afraid to embrace the truth that Shields will win.

I'll hold him in my strong arms and comfort him when that time comes.

batdude123
I can't tell if you're serious or not.

srankmissingnin
GSP is a better striker and wrestler than Shields. Sure anything could happen, but I'm not really seeing how being slightly better at BJJ gives Jake decent odds at winning.

batdude123
Originally posted by srankmissingnin
GSP is a better striker and wrestler than Shields. Sure anything could happen, but I'm not really seeing how being slightly better at BJJ gives Jake decent odds at winning.

Thank you.

See? We can agree on some things.

srankmissingnin
Originally posted by batdude123
Thank you.

See? We can agree on some things.

Are we best friends now? Ask your mom if you can come over and play.

Mindset
Originally posted by srankmissingnin
GSP is a better striker and wrestler than Shields. Sure anything could happen, but I'm not really seeing how being slightly better at BJJ gives Jake decent odds at winning. Canadian.

Also, lmfao at slightly better at bjj.

Shields is a better overall grappler than Gsp.

StyleTime
Originally posted by batdude123
I can't tell if you're serious or not.
Which is why I said this.
Originally posted by StyleTime
Mindset, you're the best there is at what you do.
He's like the Wolverine of ****ing with people.

Mindset
I never joke about Shields, he's a serious man that demands a serious discussion.

batdude123
I acknowledge that Shields is a huge threat to GSP, but I just think right now is the wrong time to fight him. A couple years ago, I'd be really concerned, but at this point, he's ever evolving and getting exponentially better (which is scary). I see GSP as being able to keep the fight on the feet by stuffing his take down attempts (via being miles ahead of him athletically) and making it a really bad night for Shields.

GSP via 3rd round TKO.

StyleTime
Originally posted by Mindset
I never joke about Shields, he's a serious man that demands a serious discussion.
laughing out loud
Originally posted by batdude123
I acknowledge that Shields is a huge threat to GSP, but I just think right is just the wrong time to fight him. A couple years ago, I'd be really concerned, but at this point, he's ever evolving and getting exponentially better (which is scary). I see GSP as being able to keep the fight on the feet by stuffing his take down attempts (via being miles ahead of him athletically) and making it a really bad night for Shields.

GSP via 3rd round TKO.
I think GSP will tear him up on the feet, but I am willing to bet that GSP will also go for a takedown at some point.

I like Jake a lot, but it would be nice for GSP to have a clean finish with a TKO.

Also, damnit quit giving in to Mindset. He grows more powerful with each response.

srankmissingnin
Originally posted by Mindset
Canadian.

Also, lmfao at slightly better at bjj.

Shields is a better overall grappler than Gsp.

American. roll eyes (sarcastic)

cool

Mindset
I'm Italian.

Bonjourno.

Spaghetti and meatballs!

long pig
Ha. There is a lot wrong about this thread. At the time i was a bit.....confused....even the poll was too much to figure out. Anyway. What about this whole 'jake is a better grappler' thing? I honestly don't think that true, and if it is, they're not that far apart. Of course he's technically superior, but not practically superior. Technically Kos, hughes and fitch are far, far superior Grapplers. But in use, not so much. BUT the more i watch shields the more I worry about the canadian.

Mindset
Jake has better grappling than everyone you just named.

How is he technically superior but not practically superior?

StyleTime
I don't think Koscheck, Fitch, and Hughes are superior grapplers to GSP.

Jake's grappling is really in a league of its own. He is so good at grappling, that he wins despite sucking at literally every other aspect of martial arts. You could make the argument that the UFC welterweights are just better than the competition Shield's has faced before, but time will tell.

GSP will still win of course, but it's because GSP is one of the most versatile guys ever in MMA. Heck, GSP is a freak; it wouldn't surprise me if he busted out an even more godlike ground game on Jake.

batdude123
I think long pig meant "wrestlers," not "grapplers."

Also, in terms of technique vs. practical usage, I understand what he's trying to say. Shogun is technically superior to Jones on the ground, but Jones' athleticism and raw, explosive power really made the difference. Georges is a much better athlete than Jake, and it really wouldn't surprise me if he was able to neutralize Jake's ground game if it ended up there.

srankmissingnin
I think Jon Fitch would win a split decision against Shields, and I really don't see either of those two having a good shot at beating GSP ever.

StyleTime
Originally posted by batdude123
I think long pig meant "wrestlers," not "grapplers."

Also, in terms of technique vs. practical usage, I understand what he's trying to say. Shogun is technically superior to Jones on the ground, but Jones' athleticism and raw, explosive power really made the difference. Georges is a much better athlete than Jake, and it really wouldn't surprise me if he was able to neutralize Jake's ground game if it ended up there.
Ok. That seems more reasonable then. There is a slight difference between wrestling and the submission fighting that people usually mean when they say "grappling."
Originally posted by srankmissingnin
I think Jon Fitch would win a split decision against Shields, and I really don't see either of those two having a good shot at beating GSP ever.
When it comes to metahumans like GSP, it all gets relative. In a typical fight, 10% chances at victory are horrible. Against GSP, it's as good as you're going to get. Shields causes such a stir because he is the one fighter that actually brings something to the table. When you take guys like Fitch/Alves/Koscheck, there is literally no area where you can say "yeah, GSP will definitely be in trouble if the fight goes here." GSP just outclasses them. Jake is the only guy where you can point out a specific area in which he might threaten GSP.

When Serra beat GSP, Matt Hughes put it perfectly. GSP should take Serra(in this case Shields) 9/10 times. Serra's(possibly Shields's) victory is just that 1/10 coming through.

srankmissingnin
Jake should change his name to Matt Shields if he is hoping on getting lucky and pulling a longshot victory out of his hat against GSP.

Mindset
Originally posted by srankmissingnin
I think Jon Fitch would win a split decision against Shields, and I really don't see either of those two having a good shot at beating GSP ever. Fitch loses a dec or gets submitted by Shields.

long pig
Originally posted by Mindset
Jake has better grappling than everyone you just named.

How is he technically superior but not practically superior? That was the only way i could phrase it. What I mean is Jake, just like every other grappler he's faced, has tons of credentials and titles and GSP has none. KOS was a D1 wrestling champ, but got out wrestled by a guy who's wrestled for what.....less than ten years? Same with Fitch. Hughs too. They are all more skilled at actual wrestling, but GSP is able to apply it better. I'm sure a lot of it is due to superior athleticism, but whatever. He's going to out wrestle jake, and whatever he lacks in bjj, if anything, he'll make up with superior execution. Isn't he a gracie black belt, too? Under Henzo i think. Maybe not. I hope jake wins though. It'd be a great upset to witness.

batdude123
Originally posted by long pig
I hope jake wins though.

You're dead to me.

StyleTime
laughing out loud

Jake seems like such a cool guy though.

He needs to stop training with the Diaz Bros. I don't want their douchebaggery rubbing off on him.

batdude123
Originally posted by StyleTime
Jake seems like such a cool guy though.

Originally posted by batdude123
You're dead to me.

Mindset
Originally posted by long pig
That was the only way i could phrase it. What I mean is Jake, just like every other grappler he's faced, has tons of credentials and titles and GSP has none. KOS was a D1 wrestling champ, but got out wrestled by a guy who's wrestled for what.....less than ten years? Same with Fitch. Hughs too. They are all more skilled at actual wrestling, but GSP is able to apply it better. I'm sure a lot of it is due to superior athleticism, but whatever. He's going to out wrestle jake, and whatever he lacks in bjj, if anything, he'll make up with superior execution. Isn't he a gracie black belt, too? Under Henzo i think. Maybe not. I hope jake wins though. It'd be a great upset to witness. Except Jake isn't like every other grappler he has faced, because he is better than all of them.

Dr. Leg Kick
The only way I see Shields winning is by a heel hook or a variation of some leg lock. I can't picture him pulling off any other submission.

Mindset
Why not?

Dr. Leg Kick
Originally posted by Mindset
Why not? http://i54.tinypic.com/30b3goo.jpg

Here's one reason.

Mindset
Only person he fought with comparable grappling to Jake is Penn, and he's smaller and weaker than Jake with worse wrestling.

So...

long pig
Originally posted by Mindset
Except Jake isn't like every other grappler he has faced, because he is better than all of them. And so was GSP. So much better it wasn't even a fight. GSP's grappling was way better than Penn's. Although shields is better than Penn, but not by a lot. Either way....I'm going out on a limb and change my prediction to shields winning.

guy222
pulling for jake

Mindset
Originally posted by long pig
And so was GSP. So much better it wasn't even a fight. GSP's grappling was way better than Penn's. Although shields is better than Penn, but not by a lot. Either way....I'm going out on a limb and change my prediction to shields winning. If Gsp's grappling is way better than Penn's, then so is Jake's.

long pig
Originally posted by batdude123
You're dead to me. i've been excommunicated from the church of fox. a chaos offer to lose every 5 years. It always makes them better. The gsp who lost to hughs wasn't even related to the gsp who beat hughs. The gsp who lost to serra wasn't the same as the gsp who avenged that loss. Everytime he lost he got 10x better in the area he got beat in. After being submitted, he did the gracie bjj thing and his wrestling got world class. after gettin k.o'd, he got freddy roach and now his boxing is on the way to being world class. Losing makes better. But, seeing my fav super human get beat is gonna suck. He is super human literally. He was on sports science and they said he doesnt produce lactic acid like normal people. That's some captain america shit right there.

Mindset
sports science is retarded, dont believe anything they say

long pig
Originally posted by Mindset
If Gsp's grappling is way better than Penn's, then so is Jake's. We can't know for sure until jake and penn fight. That's the only reason i can say gsp's was way better. There is proof of it. Until bj and jake fight, i'll just say he's better. But I'm sure you'll be proven right if they do fight.

long pig
Why don't you like sport science?

long pig
I'm more excited for the cruz faber fight than any so far this year. Cruz is my 2nd fav fighter. One of the only guys i've watched from his first fight knowing one day he'd be great. Didn't know he'd be as good a kick boxer, though. I hope he destroys the butt chinned one.

Mindset
Originally posted by long pig
Why don't you like sport science? Because it's not science.

This is the same show that said GSP hits harder than Cain and Rampage and kicks harder than Shogun. Every time a new fighter is on the show they hit harder than the last.

Dr. Leg Kick
Originally posted by Mindset
Because it's not science.

This is the same show that said GSP hits harder than Cain and Rampage and kicks harder than Shogun. Every time a new fighter is on the show they hit harder than the last. Co-sign^

Anatomically, it's impossible for a punch to generate more force than a kick.

Quiero Mota
Originally posted by guy222
pulling for jake

Me too. A six-year, 15-fight undefeated streak is nothing to sneeze at. Not even the almighty GSP can claim that.

On UFC Primetime GSP even said himself that people who believe he's gonna plow through Shields are just fooling themselves. "If you go in there thinking you're gonna walk all over Jake Shields, then he's gonna walk all over you." - Greg Jackson, GSP's own coach.

srankmissingnin
Originally posted by Quiero Mota
Me too. A six-year, 15-fight undefeated streak is nothing to sneeze at. Not even the almighty GSP can claim that.

On UFC Primetime GSP even said himself that people who believe he's gonna plow through Shields are just fooling themselves. "If you go in there thinking you're gonna walk all over Jake Shields, then he's gonna walk all over you." - Greg Jackson, GSP's own coach.

Everything you just said is verbatim what was said about GSP vs Fitch... and GSP dominated Fitch for five rounds... and Fitch is better than Shields. cool

Mindset
What is Fitch better than Jake at, it definitely isn't grappling.

They faced each other in a grappling match and Shields subbed him, granted it was in 05, but I don't see what would change...Shields is still better.

batdude123
Fitch has much better striking and slightly better wrestling. Shields got that submission by pulling guard, and the whole equation gets f*cked with when you add in punches on the ground, ala MMA.

Also, HOLY SHIT @ that spinning backfist.

srankmissingnin
Originally posted by Mindset
What is Fitch better than Jake at, it definitely isn't grappling.

They faced each other in a grappling match and Shields subbed him, granted it was in 05, but I don't see what would change...Shields is still better.

Fitch is the equal of Shields on the ground, and he at least has some semblance of a stand up game. Fitch is just better all round.

Fitch also beat Shields in a grappling contest in '04 when he was only a white belt in BJJ. They are 1-1.

Mindset
Originally posted by srankmissingnin
Fitch is the equal of Shields on the ground, and he at least has some semblance of a stand up game. Fitch is just better all round.

Fitch also beat Shields in a grappling contest in '04 when he was only a white belt in BJJ. They are 1-1. He's his equal based on what?

And what was Shields, blue?

Shields has a better in and out of mma grappling resume.

Mindset
Anyway, Shields via k1 striking resulting in a brutal KO in the 1st.

He's bringing that belt back home to Merica.

Deal with it.

Quiero Mota
Originally posted by srankmissingnin
Fitch is the equal of Shields on the ground, and he at least has some semblance of a stand up game. Fitch is just better all round.

Fitch also beat Shields in a grappling contest in '04 when he was only a white belt in BJJ. They are 1-1.

Are you just rooting for your fellow countryman, or do you actually think that Shields doesn't have a legitimate shot? 15 straight victories is an objective measure to go by. Not many fighters can claim that.

batdude123
Yo, Mindset...

http://ggurls.com/images/gossip/you-mad.gif

Although I'll admit, that wasn't a very impressive performance.

Also, Randy...

WWaLxFIVX1s

sad

Mindset
Did you really think I thought he was gonna win?

I just was hoping he'd beat Georges Snore Pierre.

Mindset
http://www.pohrani.com/f/42/gv/3vqiZibw/seagal-kick.gif

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-3JpHX4OKbRI/TbzGYu9lOiI/AAAAAAAACkk/jA5QS1DzdpU/s1600/laters.gif

batdude123
WWaLxFIVX1s

Mindset
Look at him swagger jacking Silva.

Quiero Mota
I really liked Machida's Crane style Stepping Bird technique.

Who ever thought that The Natural would ever be knocked out by something like that...

long pig
I retract my statement about gsp's striking. That was a terrible fight. Gsp regressed or something. Wtf was wrong with Aldo? Or is hominick a better striker than people realized? Without the tds, aldo would have lost.

long pig
Originally posted by Mindset
Because it's not science.

This is the same show that said GSP hits harder than Cain and Rampage and kicks harder than Shogun. Every time a new fighter is on the show they hit harder than the last. I can't argue with you there. The few i've seen have followed that pattern.

juggernaut74
Maybe all this GSP v Anderson will stop now. GSP would get murdered.

srankmissingnin
Originally posted by long pig
I retract my statement about gsp's striking. That was a terrible fight. Gsp regressed or something. Wtf was wrong with Aldo? Or is hominick a better striker than people realized? Without the tds, aldo would have lost.

Too be fair GSP couldn't see out of his left eye for three and a half rounds. That is a pretty big handicap.

Naija boy
Originally posted by long pig
I retract my statement about gsp's striking. That was a terrible fight. Gsp regressed or something. Wtf was wrong with Aldo? Or is hominick a better striker than people realized? Without the tds, aldo would have lost.

Homnick certainly wouldt have won withou the TDs. Aldo had much more significant strikes on the feet and even knocked him down twice. He was also slipping and countering homnick very well with fanastic head movement for long stretches of the fight. However it was clear that after round 1, he was certainly not a his best, as he gassed heavily likely due to a bad weight cut coming off surgery. He is still a young fighter and so these things happen this early on in ones career. It seemed a lot like aldos takedown were done so he could rest on he floor, more han anything Rogan was simply seeing things, with all those claims of homnick outstriking aldo or what not, heck he was seeing things throughout the whole night with some heavily biased commentary.

juggernaut74
Originally posted by srankmissingnin
Too be fair GSP couldn't see out of his left eye for three and a half rounds. That is a pretty big handicap. Shields should get credit for messing his eye up, that's part of the game. Although I heard it was a eye poke that messed his eye up rather than a punch. If that's true then hats off to GSP for still winning with one eye.

Bouboumaster
Sad that GSP didn't finished Shields. Also, Shields has stop the strike of round winning of the champ.

Still GSP remain the greatest WW in the world. I'd love to see him fight Diaz and give a rematch to Fitch before, if he has to do it, moving against Silva

Darth Angel
My oh my. GSP striking is so good he can't even finish Shields. But this is no big news though, he never steps him for a punch, he always throws punches from the security of the distance, afraid from trading, how can he KO anyone?

Well, Shields showed that UFC's WW division is weak (he did better then anyone else against GSP) and that Nick Diaz maybe much more dangerous then we thought for GSP. In fact, right now I don't see how will GSP win against Diaz. If Diaz finishes Daley in the 1st round and GSP can't even damage Shields, who will he endure Diaz striking? Besides Diaz BJJ will be on Shields' level so I guess he will also avoid the ground as he did with Shields. Another boring decision via takedown is his only chance.

As for Aldo, I don't know what happened but he was gassed for most of the fight. Bad weight cut? Even though he clearly won the fight, both in striking (look at Hominick's face) or the rest of the fight.

The rest was a great overall card.

And Lyoto "The Karate Kid" Machida finishes Couture with a Crane Kick.

Mr Miyagi would be proud.

Mindset
Originally posted by Bouboumaster
Sad that GSP didn't finished Shields. Also, Shields has stop the strike of round winning of the champ.

Still GSP remain the greatest WW in the world. I'd love to see him fight Diaz and give a rematch to Fitch before, if he has to do it, moving against Silva GSP is never going to fight Silva.

Dr. Leg Kick
Kampmann should have had this title shot! He would have actually had a good chance of winning. He got robbed by the Shields decision and raped by the Diego decision.

And Mindset, great avatar!

srankmissingnin
Originally posted by Dr. Leg Kick
Kampmann should have had this title shot! He would have actually had a good chance of winning. He got robbed by the Shields decision and raped by the Diego decision.

And Mindset, great avatar!

I think whoever wins the Condit / Dong Hyun Kim fight should have the next shot at GSP.

JayDaDon
Originally posted by Naija boy
Homnick certainly wouldt have won withou the TDs. Aldo had much more significant strikes on the feet and even knocked him down twice. He was also slipping and countering homnick very well with fanastic head movement for long stretches of the fight. However it was clear that after round 1, he was certainly not a his best, as he gassed heavily likely due to a bad weight cut coming off surgery. He is still a young fighter and so these things happen this early on in ones career. It seemed a lot like aldos takedown were done so he could rest on he floor, more han anything Rogan was simply seeing things, with all those claims of homnick outstriking aldo or what not, heck he was seeing things throughout the whole night with some heavily biased commentary.

I'm new here but I just gotta say thank you! I was wondering what joe was watching that whole fight. Aldo was showcasing some sick head movement and dropped Homnick twice. I didn't hear joe comment on much of that. Made it sound as if homnick was lighting him up on the feet when I thought aldo was better(more damaging shots).

long pig
Originally posted by Naija boy
Homnick certainly wouldt have won withou the TDs. Aldo had much more significant strikes on the feet and even knocked him down twice. He was also slipping and countering homnick very well with fanastic head movement for long stretches of the fight. However it was clear that after round 1, he was certainly not a his best, as he gassed heavily likely due to a bad we a young fighter and so these things happen this early on in ones career. It seemed a lot like aldos takedown were done so he could rest on he floor, more han anything Rogthings, with ims of homnick outstriking aldo or what not, heck he was seeing things throughout the whole night with some heavily biased commentary. I disagree totally. Aldo Did good on the feet the first round, but after that he started getting hit. Aldo hits harder, but Hominick hits more. If it would have stayed on the feet, he would have eventually out pointed him. He turned into a wrestler for a reason.

long pig
And GSP would smash Silva.

Naija boy
Originally posted by long pig
I disagree totally. Aldo Did good on the feet the first round, but after that he started getting hit. Aldo hits harder, but Hominick hits more. If it would have stayed on the feet, he would have eventually out pointed him. He turned into a wrestler for a reason.

After the first round Aldo did get tired, and that was certainly his best round but he did win the standup exchanges throughout most of the fight. Aldo and homnick were virtually even in strikes landed on the feet with the only difference being that aldo landed the far more devastating strikes. In no world of boxing would that translate to homnick outpointing him. He was freaking knocked down twice. Aldo turned to a wrestler in order to vary his attack and also seemingly rest since he was clearly gassing. That does not take away from the fact that we clearly saw that aldo was the one doing the damage and having a greater impact on the feet.

Rogans nonsensical commentary doesnt change that.

JayDaDon
That's the way I saw it. Homnick landed more strikes after round 1, but after that first round I didn't feel aldo was in danger at all. He was packing the power in his strikes. I only got worried at the end when he gave up that takedown and started getting blasted.

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