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I'm pretty sure the Hobbit's certificate will be either a PG or a 12a (A.K.A PG-13 if you live in the US), but I'm not sure sure which one it'll be. Which one of those do you reckon it'll be?

I suppose PG-13 since it's too close to the Lord of the Rings.

(In Germany, the Extended Edition of the LotR movies was even rated FSK-16, i.e. only for age 16 up.)

Interesting question. LOTR got rated PG-13 in the USA, Adult Accompaniment (for 13 and under) up her in Canada. The Hobbit book is a little less heavy on the violence; maybe they could get away with PG and increase the box office that much more.