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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nine-dotted_line

http://news.bbcimg.co.uk/media/images/48951000/gif/_48951920_south_china-sea_1_466.gif

So, I'm sure you've all heard about this on the news at some point, but basically, China has laid claim to a massive u-shaped chunk of the South China Sea on the basis that these areas were originally explored by Chinese navigators (can't comment on that given Chinese history isn't something I've read up much on), which--if we were to apply this standard to the whole world--would mean Spain and Portugal would have territorial waters extending over most of the Atlantic.

Anyway, my question is: how far do you think China will press this? Is it all just bluster? Will they just force Malaysia, Vietnam, Taiwan, and the Philippines into a military pact, a kind of NATO for Southeast Asia?

Maybe out of sheer symbolism, it's time to lift the military restrictions off of Japan and start providing military aid to Mongolia?

Originally posted by Darth Jello
Maybe out of sheer symbolism, it's time to lift the military restrictions off of Japan and start providing military aid to Mongolia?
That wouldn't solve this situation--the East China Sea dispute and the South China Sea dispute aren't really connected, in fact, Taiwan actually sees more eye to eye with China than with Japan on the Senkaku/Diayou dispute, because they consider them Chinese islands above all else (their kind of Chinese, of course).

My take is that this won't (for the foreseeable future) intensify much so long as China remains committed to peaceful expansion. What I can see happening is China pressuring the other nations one-by-one to sign Unequal Treaties that would give China economic dominion over the claim zone while nominally respecting the sovereignty of said nations over their territorial waters.

Omega Vision, China has a habit of making some claims concerning history and science that are a bit out there. Not as bad North Korea, however.

But what you said about Spain and Portugal puts this posturing in perspective: it is a bit odd for them to be making these claims.

It's like the Argentinian claim on the Falklands--it vaporizes as soon as you inspect it and assess it on the basis of international law.

Would a South-East Asian NATO (SETO?) be powerful enough for China to care about? I think Malaysia could make a case to the UN given that the border actually touches their coastline.

China's South China Sea

Originally posted by Symmetric Chaos
Would a South-East Asian NATO (SETO?) be powerful enough for China to care about? I think Malaysia could make a case to the UN given that the border actually touches their coastline.
Not at the moment, but the countries combined (even assuming Taiwan isn't included) have a population of more than 200,000. If China keeps pushing them, and they pull their resources together and receive military aid from the United States that's nothing to sneer at.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-21137144

So, it appears the Philippines is trying to take this to a UN Court. I doubt China will play along, but if they do the Tribunal will certainly strike down this irridentist nonsense.

There'll be a few skirmishes here and there but China actually getting any major portion of the South China Sea in the foreseeable future is unlikely. It's not like the border disputes it has had with its neighbors wherein against an unprepped opponent(India) it managed to snatch off considerable chunks of land.

The Chinese military establishment simply isn't ready yet for naval warfare of any sort(barring Somalian piracy), especially not with american allies like Japan and Taiwan.
Originally posted by Omega Vision
My take is that this won't (for the foreseeable future) intensify much so long as China remains committed to peaceful expansion. What I can see happening is China pressuring the other nations one-by-one to sign Unequal Treaties that would give China economic dominion over the claim zone while nominally respecting the sovereignty of said nations over their territorial waters.
This is spot-on.

I laughed my ass off when Mercenaries 2 came out and it portrayed the Chinese military moving a massive army across two oceans to invade Venezuela.

"which are believed to sit on vast mineral resources, including oil."

What the West needs to do is pull a Daniel Plainview and drink their milkshake from just beyond their imaginary U-shaped border before the Chinese even begin drilling.

Originally posted by Robtard
"which are believed to sit on vast mineral resources, including oil."

What the West needs to do is pull a Daniel Plainview and drink their milkshake from just beyond their imaginary U-shaped border before the Chinese even begin drilling.
Xi Jiping: "Don't bully me, Barack!"
Obama: "RAARRRGHHH!!!" *proceeds to throw Xi Jiping around the room before bludgeoning him with a bowling pin*
Joe Biden: "Mr. Obama?"
Obama: "I'm finished."

Originally posted by Omega Vision
irridentist I learned a new word today.

Damn it, I misspelled it.

Let them have it

Originally posted by Colossus-Big C
Let them have it

Stand of for something once in your life, worm.

jyDbfCbQnH8

Originally posted by Symmetric Chaos
Would a South-East Asian NATO (SETO?) be powerful enough for China to care about? I think Malaysia could make a case to the UN given that the border actually touches their coastline.

ASEAN exists and doesn't have a security component because the members have a bunch of territorial disputes amongst themselves.

Originally posted by Darth Jello
Maybe out of sheer symbolism, it's time to lift the military restrictions off of Japan and start providing military aid to Mongolia?

Japan isn't barred from having a military by anything other than its own constitution, which Japanese people don't want to amend.

ermm

Originally posted by Tzeentch._
ermm
Nice to see you finally got a set, none of that blank noob bullmess.

Originally posted by Omega Vision
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nine-dotted_line

http://news.bbcimg.co.uk/media/images/48951000/gif/_48951920_south_china-sea_1_466.gif

So, I'm sure you've all heard about this on the news at some point, but basically, China has laid claim to a massive u-shaped chunk of the South China Sea on the basis that these areas were originally explored by Chinese navigators (can't comment on that given Chinese history isn't something I've read up much on), which--if we were to apply this standard to the whole world--would mean Spain and Portugal would have territorial waters extending over most of the Atlantic.

Anyway, my question is: how far do you think China will press this? Is it all just bluster? Will they just force Malaysia, Vietnam, Taiwan, and the Philippines into a military pact, a kind of NATO for Southeast Asia? It seems like China is trying to flex it's muscles. Maybe they think if they make such a big claim and do some posturing they can get some of the expanded territory as a compromise.

I don't think this will last. The U.N. should vote it down.

Originally posted by Omega Vision
Nice to see you finally got a set, none of that blank noob bullmess.

edit- Oh, I... totally misunderstood you. When you said a set I thought you meant like, balls. LOL

edit- Because I do have balls. Big, low-hanging ones. uhuh

Something like this might happen: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Svalbard_Treaty