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Nate Drake from Uncharted 3.

VS

McClane from Die Hard 5.

Round 1: Gunfight.
Drake gets a .45 Defender and McClane gets a Beretta 92FS.

Round 2: Pure H2H.

Round 3: Who's luckier.

The fight takes place inside of a Roman Colosseum with several containers to be used as cover.

Who wins and why?

I'm not quite sure about the gunfight since Nate doesn't have many gunplay feats I can remember from the cutscenes. But Nate definitely takes 2 and 3. His luck makes McClane's look normal considering what's happened over 3 games and about to be 4.