Robot automation will take 800 million jobs by 2030

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BrolyBlack
BBC
Fortune CNBC

This is going to happen in our lifetime, what can we do to stop it?

1. Population Control?
2. Tax Automation?

truejedi
Do a Title IX type thing where for every job a robot is doing, you have to hire a human too.

cdtm
It's been happening in our lifetime. This is simply an escalation of the problem.


At some point, they'll figure out a way to automate jobs at the center of the immigration debate, too. Then the issue will go away.. Immigrants won't come here, because there's no jobs for people.

Jmanghan
Idk man... In some ways I like talking to people.

Can you imagine going to a food restaurant and having a robot serve you? No people in the back? It'd be the creepiest and the weirdest.

BrolyBlack
Originally posted by cdtm
It's been happening in our lifetime. This is simply an escalation of the problem.


At some point, they'll figure out a way to automate jobs at the center of the immigration debate, too. Then the issue will go away.. Immigrants won't come here, because there are no jobs for people.

Automation typically replaces low wage job.

Janitorial, seamstresses, fast food, waitresses and waiters, trash pick up, taxi/uber/lyft ridesharing just off the top of my head is what can be replaced with robots.

Even mid-range work, building cars, houses, can be replaced by machines, 3D printers.

Surtur
Originally posted by truejedi
Do a Title IX type thing where for every job a robot is doing, you have to hire a human too.

Plus now if a robot gets accused of rape the robot can question its accuser. Thanks Betsy!

Surtur
Originally posted by BrolyBlack
Automation typically replaces low wage job.

Janitorial, seamstresses, fast food, waitresses and waiters, trash pick up, taxi/uber/lyft ridesharing just off the top of my head is what can be replaced with robots.

Even mid-range work, building cars, houses, can be replaced by machines, 3D printers.

Idea: you know all those shitty jobs that those on the left say americans are unwilling to do, so illegals do them?

Why not get robots to do those jobs? I mean if we aren't gonna have an American doing it I'd rather have a robot. The robot isn't gonna send the money it earns back to Mexico. Nor will they commit crimes, etc.

BrolyBlack
A robot could replace those jobs, and it would take the burden from those people.

But we have to think about population, If the earth's population keeps growing, we will run out of resources.

I think we could suffer the same fate as Krypton honestly.

What about artifical population control?

Surtur
Originally posted by BrolyBlack
A robot could replace those jobs, and it would take the burden from those people.

But we have to think about population, If the earth's population keeps growing, we will run out of resources.

I think we could suffer the same fate as Krypton honestly.

What about artifical population control?

And how would we control the population? The only way would be to make it illegal to have more than 1 kid. Do we really wanna become like China?

Putinbot1
Surt doesn't have to worry about a robot taking his job.

Surtur
Originally posted by Putinbot1
Surt doesn't have to worry about a robot taking his job.

Indeed I'm irreplaceable, good point b*tch t*ts thumb up

BrolyBlack
Originally posted by Surtur
And how would we control the population? The only way would be to make it illegal to have more than 1 kid. Do we really wanna become like China?

Dont know.

gold slorg
finally

now just introduce UBI and i can finally neet in peace

Surtur
We gotta figure out how to transfer human consciousness into robots. Problem solved.

Putinbot1
Originally posted by Surtur
Indeed I'm irreplaceable, good point b*tch t*ts thumb up little puny Incel gimp, you will never have a job, kids or any life offline. You are what you are a complete loser, repulsive to women and men alike.

Surtur
Originally posted by Putinbot1
little puny Incel gimp, you will never have a job, kids or any life offline. You are what you are a complete loser, repulsive to women and men alike.

Whatever helps you cope b*tch t*ts, perhaps get back on topic? Don't worry, your cowardly self can continue to obsess over me in other threads.

Putinbot1
Originally posted by Surtur
Whatever helps you cope b*tch t*ts, perhaps get back on topic? Don't worry, you can continue to obsess over me in other threads. you are a self admitted cuck, on disability with no education. Why would anyone obsess over you? Your ex even ****ed you.

Surtur
Originally posted by Putinbot1
you are a self admitted cuck, on disability with no education. Why would anyone obsess over you? Your ex even ****ed you.

I'm clearly in your head 24/7, you literally can't stop yourself from posting comments about me in threads that have nothing at all to do with me lol. And this is after just a few days ago you were whining like a b*tch and going "can't we all just stop this?". Now you've derailed another thread due to your obsession.

El oh El.

Putinbot1
Originally posted by Surtur
I'm clearly in your head 24/7, you literally can't stop yourself from posting comments about me in threads that have nothing at all to do with me lol. kid your deflections fail. I have a life, you have nothing. No job, no kids, no education, no physicality, have you ever succeeded at anything. You come on here and talk about things you will never be part of like the workplace or in a relationship. I pity you.

BrolyBlack
Can you guys take this elsewhere please

Putinbot1
Originally posted by BrolyBlack
Can you guys take this elsewhere please certainly pal.

Surtur
Originally posted by BrolyBlack
Can you guys take this elsewhere please

The obsession over me is getting pathetic yeah, he's best treated like a loud obnoxious child: just ignore him.

BrolyBlack
Thank you both

Putinbot1
Originally posted by Surtur
The obsession over me is getting pathetic yeah, he's best treated like a loud obnoxious child: just ignore him. there you going trying to have the last word my little Incel. I'll bite though. What have you ever succeeded at in life?

Surtur
Anyways, since that pathetic spectacle is over:

Perhaps we should start training people to fix robots? Lol.

Putinbot1
Originally posted by BrolyBlack
Thank you both Don't thank me I was happy to leave it but... clearly Surt needed to try and give it again.

Putinbot1
Originally posted by Surtur
Anyways, since that pathetic spectacle is over:

Perhaps we should start training people to fix robots? Lol. There you go again baiting my little Incel.

Surtur
Ignoring the continuing sad display: though I guess we could just have robots to fix the robots as well.

Surtur
Originally posted by BrolyBlack
BBC
Fortune CNBC

This is going to happen in our lifetime, what can we do to stop it?

1. Population Control?
2. Tax Automation?

Seems there is one silver lining to being a poor country: they won't be impacted by this as much.

carthage

Eternal Idol
Originally posted by Surtur
Idea: you know all those shitty jobs that those on the left say americans are unwilling to do, so illegals do them?

Why not get robots to do those jobs? I mean if we aren't gonna have an American doing it I'd rather have a robot. The robot isn't gonna send the money it earns back to Mexico. Nor will they commit crimes, etc.

A robot wouldn't be earning any money for itself, as it is a company-owned tool, and therefore would not stimulate the economy. Even if an immigrant sends money to his or her family in their home countries, they still need to meet their basic needs here in order to continue working to support themselves and their family, wherever they may be. On top of that, they pay sales taxes, property taxes, and many pay income taxes as well.

The only way I'd support that level of automation is if a substantial and progressive universal basic income were put into action nationwide, and that would very likely require raising taxes on the wealthy business owners making record profits via the automation.

Surtur
Originally posted by Eternal Idol
A robot wouldn't be earning any money for itself, as it is a company-owned tool, and therefore would not stimulate the economy. Even if an immigrant sends money to his or her family in their home countries, they still need to meet their basic needs here in order to continue working to support themselves and their family, wherever they may be. On top of that, they pay sales taxes, property taxes, and many pay income taxes as well.

The only way I'd support that level of automation is if a substantial and progressive universal basic income were put into action nationwide, and that would very likely require raising taxes on the wealthy business owners making record profits via the automation.

^Better hope our future robot overlords never see this post.

Flyattractor
Mankind is quickly becoming Obsolete. And I can see the good and bad. Not having to put up with Idiot and Snotty Teenagers when trying to simply order a hamburger at a drive thru will be awesome. Knowing that only Rich Elite Ass Munchers like Politicians and Lawyers will have jobs. They will need to arm the robots to protect them from the Little People.


Mega City via Judge Dredd is the Future of Mankind.

Flyattractor
Originally posted by BrolyBlack
A robot could replace those jobs, and it would take the burden from those people.

But we have to think about population, If the earth's population keeps growing, we will run out of resources.

I think we could suffer the same fate as Krypton honestly.

What about artifical population control?

The Best we could hope for would be a Logan's Run Future.

Surtur
Just gonna float this idea out there: robot genocide.

Flyattractor
Terminator Future. I can dig it!

Surtur
No I mean our solution should be to genocide these robots. It's the only way to be safe.

Eternal Idol
Fly! Your phone and computer are conspiring against you! Quick! Destroy them!

Flyattractor
Nice Try Skippy. I got my machines Under Control and Slaved to my WILL!


Weill I aint to sure about the playstation tho....

Surtur
Al Gore is a robot from the future who was sent back in time to create the internet so Skynet can then infect the internet.

Flyattractor
So if Al Gore is the Best they could send back that just means we never prefect a Actual Life Like Android then?

The Spectre+
Prepare for the robot invasion
........wish hitler were alive.

Astner
Get a proper education and learn how to program, maintain and service mechatronics, and automated systems, or move to the third world where they still have use of people who peel eggs for a living.

Flyattractor
Originally posted by Astner
Get a proper education and learn how to program, maintain and service mechatronics, and automated systems,

Machines will be able to do that for themselves soon enough. You are Already OBSOLETE!!!!!!

Putinbot1
Originally posted by Flyattractor
Machines will be able to do that for themselves soon enough. You are Already OBSOLETE!!!!!! You dont understand the third world and how much cheaper humans are here than machines.

Flyattractor
The Entire World will be come the 3rd World and Above it all will be the MACHINE WORLD!!!!!! Which will then probably destroy us all in a final burst of Logic.

MANKIND IS DOOMED!!!

dadudemon
Originally posted by Putinbot1
You dont understand the third world and how much cheaper humans are here than machines.

Economies of scale.

If it costs $7,400,000 to develop the software that can make food, it costs $200, annually to maintain, has a MTBF of 90 days, and makes 228 meals a day (service operation time is 5AM to midnight, every day of the year, at 5 minutes of meal prep and serve time)...

That's 20,520 meals made between each failure. And assume one day for failure (4 production-disrupting failures per year). 365.25-4 = 82,365 meals per day (this number not accidental).

If your manufacturing costs for this device are 24,000 per device (which is actually less but the R&D portion for the hardware-software combo increases the average cost per device and the End of Life and End of Service cycle for this particular device will hit a stopping point and you will repeat it with a Mark II version) and you make 1,000 of them, your hardware costs for the first year are $31,600,000.

Assuming you reach 3 sigma in quality for the device (meaning, your critical failure rate for the devices is 6.7%) per year, you will have to replace 67 devices so add an additional $1,608,000 for the first year.

Now you're looking at a first year cost of $33,208,000.

Second year costs will now be: $1,808,000 (200,000 in maintenance costs and 1,608,000 in hardware replacement costs for the critical failures).

2 year costs: $35,016,000.

That's for development, hardware, and maintenance. Doesn't include a pre-prod testing period (a pilot) or marketing, or regulatory and compliance costs.


And the cost per meal over that 2 year period is going to be:

$35,016,000./164,730,000 meals = $0.21 per meal + costs of food per meal (transportation, certification, regulatory and compliance, food cost itself from distributor, storage (cold storage and dry storage), and import taxes).


21 cents per meal doesn't sound bad but all that food will likely have to be imported and stored. Marketing can be very cheap in poorer places. If food costs can be less than a dollar (extremely unlikely), this is feasible in many places.

Also, I did not account for maintenance techs travel in that cost.



I did all that to show that I agree with you. The "economies of scale" has to be in the tens of thousands before this is feasible. That's why a place like McDonald's might be a better choice before a poor country is a good choice. McDonald's already has the acquisition, manufacturing, and storage problem solved for food. They just need the food making bots. And their bots will cost more than $100k for each device, require more maintenance, and have a higher failure rate. 3 sigma is not that great of a quality standard.

The Spectre+
racist robots soon to come

Putinbot1
Originally posted by dadudemon
Economies of scale.

If it costs $7,400,000 to develop the software that can make food, it costs $200, annually to maintain, has a MTBF of 90 days, and makes 228 meals a day (service operation time is 5AM to midnight, every day of the year, at 5 minutes of meal prep and serve time)...

That's 20,520 meals made between each failure. And assume one day for failure (4 production-disrupting failures per year). 365.25-4 = 82,365 meals per day (this number not accidental).

If your manufacturing costs for this device are 24,000 per device (which is actually less but the R&D portion for the hardware-software combo increases the average cost per device and the End of Life and End of Service cycle for this particular device will hit a stopping point and you will repeat it with a Mark II version) and you make 1,000 of them, your hardware costs for the first year are $31,600,000.

Assuming you reach 3 sigma in quality for the device (meaning, your critical failure rate for the devices is 6.7%) per year, you will have to replace 67 devices so add an additional $1,608,000 for the first year.

Now you're looking at a first year cost of $33,208,000.

Second year costs will now be: $1,808,000 (200,000 in maintenance costs and 1,608,000 in hardware replacement costs for the critical failures).

2 year costs: $35,016,000.

That's for development, hardware, and maintenance. Doesn't include a pre-prod testing period (a pilot) or marketing, or regulatory and compliance costs.


And the cost per meal over that 2 year period is going to be:

$35,016,000./164,730,000 meals = $0.21 per meal + costs of food per meal (transportation, certification, regulatory and compliance, food cost itself from distributor, storage (cold storage and dry storage), and import taxes).


21 cents per meal doesn't sound bad but all that food will likely have to be imported and stored. Marketing can be very cheap in poorer places. If food costs can be less than a dollar (extremely unlikely), this is feasible in many places.

Also, I did not account for maintenance techs travel in that cost.



I did all that to show that I agree with you. The "economies of scale" has to be in the tens of thousands before this is feasible. That's why a place like McDonald's might be a better choice before a poor country is a good choice. McDonald's already has the acquisition, manufacturing, and storage problem solved for food. They just need the food making bots. And their bots will cost more than $100k for each device, require more maintenance, and have a higher failure rate. 3 sigma is not that great of a quality standard. to use most African countries as an example the average wage in many is 40$ a month or 480$ a year, that's for a house chef, gate man or driver. Some it's far less.

BrolyBlack
Originally posted by The Spectre+
racist robots soon to come

This is a gem right here, and worth going my my profilelaughing out loud

cdtm
This topic made me remember something I learned awhile ago.

You know map makers for Doom? Turns out there's automated programs, that do such a good job, they beat the professionals. People have gotten awards for just running a random map generator.

And that's just the tip of the iceberg:




Watch out, devs, you're replaceable by a computer.

dadudemon
Originally posted by cdtm
This topic made me remember something I learned awhile ago.

You know map makers for Doom? Turns out there's automated programs, that do such a good job, they beat the professionals. People have gotten awards for just running a random map generator.

And that's just the tip of the iceberg:




Watch out, devs, you're replaceable by a computer.

Procedurally generated levels/maps has been a thing for a long-ass time.

Deep Blue with chess was in the 90s, to put things into perspective.


We need much more automation in farming before we can work down the path of automated food production.


Hope the birth of true AI comes soon. They can make these improvements faster than we can.

cdtm
Originally posted by dadudemon
Procedurally generated levels/maps has been a thing for a long-ass time.

Deep Blue with chess was in the 90s, to put things into perspective.


We need much more automation in farming before we can work down the path of automated food production.


Hope the birth of true AI comes soon. They can make these improvements faster than we can.

Oh yeah, I'm way late to the party on random map generators.

That one that's been running for decades non stop, producing a map a day every day. I'd like to know how often the computers been replaced, if ever, and if it's just been sitting in a basement somewhere, long forgotten.

Flyattractor
3rd World Countries will simply become Resource Piles for the Machine Empires!

cdtm
Child labor will be used to maintain the machines.

Until they, too, are replaced by machines. Child machines.

dadudemon
Originally posted by cdtm
Child labor will be used to maintain the machines.

Until they, too, are replaced by machines. Child machines.

I laughed.


I told my coworker.


He laughed.

Surtur
I really don't think we wanna essentially give the robots "children" and then enslave those children.

Putinbot1
Originally posted by cdtm
Child labor will be used to maintain the machines.

Until they, too, are replaced by machines. Child machines. laughing out loud Brilliantly funny post cdtm

BrolyBlack
Originally posted by cdtm
Child labor will be used to maintain the machines.

Until they, too, are replaced by machines. Child machines.

laughing out loud

Surtur
The 6 Worst Jobs Ever (Were Done by Children)

Article is nearly 9 years old and still funny. This is back when Cracked was good.

Putinbot1
The world of work...

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