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What Just Happened Also Occurred Before The Last 7 U.S. Recessions. Reason To Worry?

Signs are pointing to a coming U.S. recession, according to an economic indicator that has preceded every recession over the past five decades.

It is known among economists and Wall Street traders as a "yield curve inversion," and it refers to when long-term interest rates are paying out less than short-term rates.

That curve has been flattening out and sloping down for more than a year, raising worries among some analysts that investors' long-term view of the market is not positive and that an economic downturn is looming.

But on Sunday, an inauspicious milestone was achieved: The yield curve remained inverted for three months, or an entire quarter, which has for half a century been a clear signal that the economy is heading for recession in the next nine to 18 months, according to Campbell Harvey, a Duke University finance professor who spoke to NPR on Sunday. His research in the mid-1980s first linked yield curve inversions to recessions.

"That has been associated with predicting a recession for the last seven recessions," Harvey said. "From the 1960s, this indicator has been reliable in terms of foretelling a recession, and also importantly, it has not given any false signals yet."

Still, many economic forecasters do not see a recession on the horizon.

For instance, Randal Quarles, the Federal Reserve's vice chairman for banking supervision, has said that the gap between short- and long-term interest rates does not mean the U.S. is moving toward a recession.

And then there is a sea of bright economic news setting the backdrop for the yield curve inversion hitting its three-month mark: Unemployment is at a near historic low. The stock market is going strong. The S&P 500 is up 17% for the year. And while some economists say the pace of growth may be slowing, the consensus view is that a dramatic economic plunge is not on the horizon.

But Harvey says no single economic predictor has the impressively prescient track record of the yield curve inversion.

"Yes, the economy looks good right now," Harvey said. "But the yield curve is about the future. It captures the expectations of the broad market in terms of what might happen in the future." -snip



Been said for the last year or two that what's been happening policy-wise will lead us to another recession, so save your pennies.

Oh no, the sky is falling!! The world is about to end (just ask AOC lol) and it's all because of the big bad orange man waaah, waaah, waaah!!

Big bad orange man was also...like... TOTALLY responsible for the fall of the roman empire and the crucifixion of Christ as well!!

Orange man bad! Orange man bad!! Orange man bad!! Her derp!!

Shadow Stats still shows that we have a sick economy with true unemployment still barely below 21%:

http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/unemployment-charts


However, the Shadow State shows a recent downward trend in unemployment. We are still not back to pre-2008 recession levels of unemployment, according to Shadwostats.


So while Trump and his administration may talk about how well the economy is doing, it is still sick and recovering from the Great Recession.


Edit - And if a recession does strike, I hope it strikes at the end of 2020, in December.

If anything it goes to show how strong the Fed is in controlling our growth and spending/saving.

Nostradamus economics!

PS get your annuities now here is a link for my "educational" page where I can show you how to save for the future despite tumultuous stock/invest forecasts........buy gold NOW

The fact is that we've had the longest expansion cycle in modern times since the last 08 recession. It is only a matter of time, though I wouldn't count on an inverted yield curve being an indicator of it happening very soon. Also this is old news.

Oh my...

lots of coping from cult45

The warnings have been spoken about since early 2018 at least...

The recession is coming, it's going to be big, pay off your loans and credit cards.

Originally posted by Putinbot1
The recession is coming, it's going to be big, pay off your loans and credit cards.

Bingo.

As as wise man has been saying since late 2017 "save your pennies".

Seems this thread was prophetic...


Economists Announce The U.S. Economy Is Officially In A Recession

We all got this right...

StopTheHate got it right first back in 2017.

Originally posted by Robtard
StopTheHate got it right first back in 2017. He tried but Trumpers could not be reasoned with. They were made of hate and other base emotions.

Unemployment claims drop.

Shadow stats show that true unemployment is 2/3 the way recovered to pre-COVID-19 economic ruin. And it is still recovering.


DOW, Russell, S&P, and NASDAQ have hit record highs in the last few days. Remember, the Russell Index is much more indicative of the medium to small "guys" in the market and a better barometer for the economy.


So what's this about economists saying we are in a recession?

That article is from June, 2020. The damage from government policies related to the coronavirus is why it was called a recession. Which should be obvious.

Originally posted by dadudemon
Unemployment claims drop.

Shadow stats show that true unemployment is 2/3 the way recovered to pre-COVID-19 economic ruin. And it is still recovering.

Lol so those in this thread claiming they got it right didn't.

Good stuff.

Trying to gaslight out of a recession. Not sure that will actually do anything in reality, surt. But you can hope.

I'm sure Democrats shutting down the country has nothing to do with this.

Originally posted by Robtard
Trying to gaslight out of a recession. Not sure that will actually do anything in reality, surt. But you can hope.

Trust me when I say you don't want to bring gaslighting into the conversation.

Originally posted by wxyz
I'm sure Democrats shutting down the country has nothing to do with this.


You're blaming "Der Democrats", well that's something and at least you're not denying the recession.

Originally posted by Surtur
Trust me when I say you don't want to bring gaslighting into the conversation.

Um, that word is right in the post you quoted, dummy.

Wise choice. We move on.

That was telling you to 'bring it', dummy.

No, you have to type out "I want to make this a gaslighting discussion".

Do you son? We move on if your next post lacks that.

Your silly cowardice has been noted and you're finished here.

Originally posted by Surtur
Lol so those in this thread claiming they got it right didn't.

Good stuff.

No, there really was a recession.

A government caused recession due to the harmful actions they took to "combat" the coronavirus where they actually ended up killing more people than if they hadn't done anything at all.

The pandemic recession is hardly a legitimate recession because we also had the fastest economic recovery in modern history, as well, shortly after that recession ended. More like, it is a very uncharacteristic recession and it is just a unique animal. We cannot legitimately say we had "record economic recovery" because governments decided to end lockdowns.

That article is old. It's from early June.

Originally posted by Robtard
Your silly cowardice has been noted and you're finished here.

So you tucked tail and ran.

Wise move.

Originally posted by Robtard
Trying to gaslight out of a recession. Not sure that will actually do anything in reality, surt. But you can hope.


But we are literally not in a recession. Your article is from almost exactly 6 months ago.

A recession, in economics, has an explicit definition of economic contraction in 2 consecutive quarters. In June, we clearly saw economic contraction in 2 consecutive quarters. It was right to call it a recession in early June.

We also saw record growth in June and exited the recession about the same time they posted their research.

And we haven't been in a recession since then.



Pretending like an economic assessment in early June is indicative of the economic landscape, today, is actual gaslighting. Pointing out the literal facts of the current economy is not gaslighting even remotely.

Why is it that actual facts = gaslighting but actual gaslighting is not called gaslighting?

Did you look at the date on the article? Did you hope no one would notice? Or did you purposefully try to gaslight?

Originally posted by dadudemon
But we are literally not in a recession. Your article is from almost exactly 6 months ago.

A recession, in economics, has an explicit definition of economic retraction in 2 consecutive quarters. In June, we clearly saw economic contraction in 2 consecutive quarters. It was right to call it a recession in early June.

We also saw record growth in June and exited the recession about the same time they posted their research.

And we haven't been in a recession since then.



Pretending like an economic assessment in early June is indicative of the economic landscape, today, is actually indicative of gaslighting. Pointing out the literal facts of the current economy is not gaslighting even remotely.

Why is it that actual facts = gaslighting but actual gaslighting is not called gaslighting?

Did you look at the date on the article? Did you hope no one would notice? Or did you purposefully try to gaslight?

^It's why I said they shouldn't bring gaslighting into this. Given they do it on a daily basis? That would not be a conversation that ends well for them.

It's why Rob was wise to avoid it. See they *can* learn, albeit slowly.

All you care about is arguing politics and trying to convince people you are somebody your not, which is a prophet. You made a thread based off something else someone wrote.

Riding off their coattails is embarrassing, if you had any shame.

Than you for the kind words, BB

Originally posted by BrolyBlack
All you care about is arguing politics and trying to convince people you are somebody your not, which is a prophet. You made a thread based off something else someone wrote.

Riding off their coattails is embarrassing, if you had any shame.

Rob is past the point where he can argue in good faith.