Being the political über geek that I am, I decided to make a thread highlighting the general elections of 2008. These include the Presidential election, Congressional elections, and Gubernatorial elections. Election Day is November 4, 2008
President
George W. Bush is barred from seeking a 3rd term to the office of President of the United States by the 22nd Amendment. This election is notable in that it will be the first one since 1928 in which neither the incumbent President or Vice President is seeking the nomination.
Barring unforeseen circumstances, Sen. John McCain (AZ) will be the Republican nominee for President.
The Democratic nominee has yet to be chosen and will likely be chosen by the National Convention, but barring unforeseen circumstances it will either be Sen. Barack Obama (IL) or Sen. Hillary Clinton (NY). This year will mark the first nomination of an African-American or woman by a major party of the Presidency.
Senate
One-third of the Senate is up for election (33 seats), due to the staggering of terms. 2 Senate seats have special elections that will coincide with the general election (Mississippi and Wyoming). There are 35 races total. 5 Senators have declined to seek re-election, creating open seats. Color denotes the incumbent party.
Alabama: Incumbent Sen. Jeff Sessions is seeking a 3rd term. State Sen. Vivian Davis Figures will be the likely nominee of the Democratic party. Sessions is unlikely to lose the election.
Alaska: President pro tempore emeritus Sen. Ted Stevens is seeking an 8th term. Recent scandals related to Stevens' relations with oil companies could hurt his bid. Democratic candidates for the August 25th primary include Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich and Fmr. State Rep. Ray Metcalfe.
Arkansas: Incumbent Sen. Mark Pryor is assured reelection after Republicans failed to field a candidate for the primary.
Colorado (OPEN): Sen. Wayne Allard is retiring due to self-imposed term limits. The Democratic nominee is Rep. Mark Udall. The Republican nominee is Fmr. Rep. Bob Schaffer. Prediction sites consistently rate this as a pick-up for Democrats.
Delaware: Sen Joe. Biden is seeking a 7th term. Biden is heavily favored to win reelection.
Georgia: Sen. Saxby Chambliss is running for a 2nd term. The Democrats face a crowded primary of 7 candidates with the primary on June 15th. Chambliss is favored to win reelection.
Idaho (OPEN): Sen. Larry Craig is retiring after being charged with soliciting sex from an undercover police officer in a men's restroom. Current Lt.Gov. Jim Risch will be the likely Republican nominee, and the likely Democratic nominee will be Fmr.Rep. Larry LaRocco. The Republican nominee is favored to win election.
Illinois: Senate Majority Whip Dick Durbin is heavily favored to win reelection. The Republican nominee is Steve Sauerberg.
Iowa: Sen. Tom Harkin is heavily favored to win reelection. The Republican face a three-way primary on June 3rd
Kansas: Sen. Pat Roberts is favored to win a 3rd term. Fmr. Rep. Jim Slattery will likely be the Democratic nominee.
Kentucky: Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell is seeking reelection. Democrats face a 7-candidate primary. Businessman Bruce Lunsford is the favorite to win the Democratic nomination.
Louisiana: Sen. Mary Landrieu is considered to be the only endangered Democratic incumbent. State Treasurer John Kennedy, the State Treasurer and a former Democrat will be the Republican nominee.
Maine: Sen. Susan Collins is being targeted as a Republican in a Democratic state. Rep. Tom Allen is the Democratic nominee. Predictions generally favor Collins, but race could become competitive.
Massachusetts: 2004 Presidential nominee Sen. John Kerry is seeking a 4th term. He is favored to win reelection in such a heavily Democratic state.
Michigan: Sen. Carl Levin is a heavily favored to win reelection.
Minnesota: Sen. Norm Coleman is running for his second term. He is considered endangered. Al Franken will be the likely nominee of the Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party, and polling has shown a very tight race.
Mississippi: Sen. Thad Cochran is favored to win reelection due to all focus being put on the special election (below)
Mississippi (special): Roger Wicker was appointed to the Senate after Trent Lott resigned in December. The Democratic nominee will be Fmr.Gov. Ronnie Musgrove. Polls show a tight race.
Montana: Sen. Max Baucus is not considered endangered.
Nebraska (OPEN): Sen. Chuck Hagel is retiring. The Republican nominee will likely be Fmr. Agriculture Sec. Mike Johanns. Despite having potentially strong nominees, the Democrats could not convince them to run. Johanns will likely win election.
New Hampshire: Sen. John Sununu, according to polls, is likely to be unseated in November by Former Governor Jeanne Shaheen (D)
New Jersey: Despite Sen. Frank Lautenberg's relative unpopularity, Republicans have yet to find a strong candidate.
New Mexico (OPEN): Sen. Pete Domenici is retiring due to health reasons. All three Congressmen are running for the seat: Tom Udall (D), and Heather Wilson and Steve Pearce (R). Udall is favored to win the general election.
North Carolina: Despite Sen. Elizabeth Dole's unpopularity in the Tar Heel State, Democrat have not found a strong opponent in State Sen. Kay Hagan.
Oklahoma: Sen. Jim Inhofe is favored to win reelection. The Democratic nominee is State Sen. Andrew Rice.
Oregon: Sen. Gordon Smith is considered vulnerable. Speaker of the House Jeff Merkley will be the likely Democratic nominee.
Rhode Island: Sen. Jack Reed has been called the "safest incumbent of the 2008 election cycle."
South Carolina: Sen. Lindsey Graham is favored to win reelection. No strong Democratic candidate has emerged.
South Dakota: Sen. Tim Johnson, despite suffered an aneurysm-like brain trauma in December of '07, is running for re-election and although he was potentially vulnerable, no strong Republican opponent has emerged.
Tennessee: Sen. Lamar Alexander is unlikely to face significant opposition in his re-election bid.
Texas: John Cornyn is potentially vulnerable. The Democratic nominee is State Rep. Rick Noriega.
Virginia (OPEN): Sen. John Warner is retiring. Fmr. Governor Mark Warner (D) (no relation) is almost certain to win election over Fmr. Governor Jim Gilmore (R)
West Viriginia: Sen. Jay Rockefeller is favored to win reelection.
Wyoming: Sen. Mike Enzi is favored to win reelection due to all focus being put on the special election (below).
Wyoming (special): John Barrasso was appointed to the Senate after the death of Craig Thomas. Barrasso is favored to win election due to the strong Republican nature of the state.
House
All 435 seat of the House of Representatives are up for election. Only a handful are considered competitive each election cycle. There are 4 vacancies in the house that are yet to be filled by special election. There are 33 seats that will not have an incumbent running (26 R, 7 D), whether the Representative is running for higher office, lost the primary, or will retire.
As races flesh out I will update you all the competitive ones.
Governor
There are 13 gubernatorial elections in 2008: 8 held by Democrats and 5 by Republicans. 2 Governors' seats are open due to term limits. (Both D). 1 is open due to the Governor retiring. Color denotes party of the incumbent.
American Samoa: Togiola Tulafono is favored to win reelection.
Delaware (OPEN): Gov. Ruth Ann Minner is term-limited. Democratic candidates include Lt.Gov. John Carney and State Treasurer Jack Markell. Republican candidates include Senate Minority Leader Charlie Copeland and State Auditor Thomas Wagner. The seat will likely hold for Democrats.
Indiana: Gov. Mitch Daniels has been relatively unpopular in the Hoosier state, and is considered vulnerable. Democratic candidates for the primary are Fmr.Rep. Jill Long Thompson and businessman Jim Schellinger.
Missouri (OPEN): Gov. Matt Blunt is retiring. The Democratic candidate is state Attorney General Jay Nixon. Rep. Kenny Hulshof and and State Auditor Sarah Steelman are running for the Republicans. Polls give the edge to Nixon.
Montana Gov. Brian Schweitzer is favored to win reelection.
New Hampshire: Gov. John Lynch is heavily favored to win reelection after winning 74% of the vote in 2006.
North Carolina (OPEN): Gov. Mike Easley will be term-limited out of office. Leading Democratic candidate is Lt.Gov. Beverly Perdue. Republicans have yet to choose a candidate. Perdue is favored to win election.
North Dakota: Gov. John Hoeven is favored to win reelection in this heavily Republican state. The Democratic candidate is Sen. Tim Mathern.
Puerto Rico: After numerous scandals, Gov. Aníbal Acevedo Vilá will likely be unseated by congressional Delegate Luis Fortuño (NPP).
Utah: Jon Huntsman, Jr. is favored to win reelection over Democrat Springmeyer.
Vermont: Gov. Jim Douglas is favored to win reelection, having no major party opponents.
Washington: Gov. Christine Gregoire, who won the 2004 election by only 133 votes, is running for reelection, is facing her opponent from 2004, Dino Rossi (R). Although the state is reliably Democratic, there is the potential for Gregoire to be unseated.
Well those are the races for 2008. I'll be updating this thread frequently, so if you're interested, please check it out!
Not only would it be silly, as no one has voted for him, he probably wouldn't WANT to.
In all honesty and likelihood, it will probably be Obama vs McCain. Clinton can't win the delegates back unless she wins huge in every single one of the upcomming primaries, and she's unlikely to catch the popular vote as well. And the super dels probably don't want to end up betraying both the delegates and the popular vote and take the nomination away from the person the people voted for.
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"God has no place within these walls! Just as facts have no place within organized religion." - The Simpsons
Some poeple will not like me for saying this, but has America ever had a candidate that was popular in the US and the rest of the world before? Because I think Obama might actually be the first.
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Last edited by lord xyz on Jan 1st 2000 at 00:00 AM
Plenty. You just aren't thinking back far enough. Though a lot depends on which country you're speaking of, because "like/dislike" among other countries is largely dictated by political climate.
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Also, good stuff Strangelove. Do you think the Dems will retain their majority in the House/Senate? They do currently have the majority, right?
to be nominated on the floor aint to democratic because it aint the people who would elect the person, the other nominees have campaign trough primary election by voters across the nation. Who, they the people, would like to see as their candidate. The whole thing would actually be a farce if they had eliminating elections to pick a candidate and then someone other than the ones who campaigned get elected on the floor
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never argue with an idiot, they only drag you down to their level and beat you by experience
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Mar 28th, 2008 11:27 AM
