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The Solar Flare and the times that follow.
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GCG
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The Solar Flare and the times that follow.

I was watching a programme on Discovery Science that detailed how a massive solar flare of epic emanates from our sun every 100/150 years.

It analyzed how a forthcoming solar flare could wipe out telecommunications around the globe and send our earth's electromagnetism in tilt. Sattelites would fry and so would phones, pagers (if any?) wireless connections and the internets.

Which begs the question. Will other stiff such as fridges, TVs, DVD players etc be affected?

Now this brings me onto part II.

In Chuck Palahniuk's fight club, there are many referances to the people being enslaved into this modern world of comfort. Where we are brought up thinking that surrounding ourself with lots of stuff will make us happy, but it turns out that the things we own end up owning us.

We feel the urge to buy stuff that we dont really need. Even I am taking a look around me and I am seeing stuff I hardly use.

Then we have the people who live beyond their standards. Those that need to loan and borrow money to be 'happy'. To 'look good'. The amounts on the world's credit cards must be gargantuan. Stuff on credit all worthy of adding another crippled character to South Park. We had Jimmy, then Timmy and now Economy.

Without forcing this perspective on anyone, would it be possible that this Solar flare wipe out ALL technology, and as Tyler put's it, 'erasing all the debt, bringing us all back down to zero' ?

What life would ensue?


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Old Post Jan 25th, 2011 04:10 PM
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dadudemon
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I thought we already had a great solar flare (one of the epic ones) back in the early 2000s or late 90s?

And it DID affect satellites, energy, and cells (the cells for cellular networks: not cell phones.)


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Old Post Jan 25th, 2011 04:17 PM
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GCG
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I'm not refering to those babies but to a massive one that could wipe out TV's, internet and the mostly reliebale power grids. No power for days, weeks, months or maybe years.


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Old Post Jan 25th, 2011 04:25 PM
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dadudemon
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quote: (post)
Originally posted by GCG
I'm not refering to those babies but to a massive one that could wipe out TV's, internet and the mostly reliebale power grids. No power for days, weeks, months or maybe years.


Yeah: me too. I'm referring to a great solar flare. I thought we already had one of the sesquicentennial flares.


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Old Post Jan 25th, 2011 04:29 PM
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skekUng
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I don't recall losing power for years.

Old Post Jan 25th, 2011 06:13 PM
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Deja~vu
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I believe everything would be chaotic. People will start stealing and looting, others will run away to somewhere, what they feel is a safe place. If nothing is working, then there will be riots in the streets. Good human nature. lol


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Old Post Jan 25th, 2011 06:19 PM
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Tzeentch
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Probably nothing will happen. People will initially be weirded out, news "experts" will discuss the event for a couple years over whatever form of long range communication we still have, and then we'll go about our lives.


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Old Post Jan 25th, 2011 06:27 PM
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tsilamini
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quote: (post)
Originally posted by GCG
I'm not refering to those babies but to a massive one that could wipe out TV's, internet and the mostly reliebale power grids. No power for days, weeks, months or maybe years.


the blackout that occured on the East coast of the US and in Canada a couple of summers ago was very sensible...

Power was only out for just under a day, but still, people didn't take to rioting


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Old Post Jan 25th, 2011 08:43 PM
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Mindship
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With that big a flare, we'll begin to mutate.
Superpowers for all, except those making over $250,000/yr.


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Old Post Jan 25th, 2011 09:32 PM
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Deja~vu
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laughing out loud


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Old Post Jan 25th, 2011 09:45 PM
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Robtard
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The Trigger Effect (1996) deals with power and communications going down for a couple of days and the chaos that ensues.

Not a great film.


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Old Post Jan 25th, 2011 09:48 PM
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tsilamini
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if the cycle is 100/150 years, we should have a general idea about what might happen. widespread use of telegraphs existed in the 1830s, and afaik, nobody since then has noticed all our electricity just fail.


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Old Post Jan 25th, 2011 09:50 PM
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Quiero Mota

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quote: (post)
Originally posted by Robtard
The Trigger Effect (1996) deals with power and communications going down for a couple of days and the chaos that ensues.

Not a great film.


Yeah, sounds like a corny B horror flick. The kind that Syfy would play on a Sunday morning.


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Old Post Jan 25th, 2011 09:51 PM
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Robtard
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quote: (post)
Originally posted by Quiero Mota
Yeah, sounds like a corny B horror flick. The kind that Syfy would play on a Sunday morning.


Not B or horror, just not a great film.

It's definitely higher quality than Super Solar Storm or Mega Shark Vs Giant Octopus.


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Old Post Jan 25th, 2011 09:58 PM
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jaden101
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quote: (post)
Originally posted by Robtard
The Trigger Effect (1996) deals with power and communications going down for a couple of days and the chaos that ensues.

Not a great film.


Want a classic film about the sun going **** up that isn't "Sunshine"

The Quiet Earth....quality movie.


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Old Post Jan 25th, 2011 10:19 PM
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Robtard
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quote: (post)
Originally posted by jaden101
Want a classic film about the sun going **** up that isn't "Sunshine"

The Quiet Earth....quality movie.


I have a book titled something like '101 Sci Fi Movies to See Before You Die'; that one is in there; it piqued my interest.

I also did enjoy Sunshine.


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Old Post Jan 25th, 2011 10:27 PM
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dadudemon
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http://science.nasa.gov/science-new...arringtonflare/


quote:
"May 6, 2008: At 11:18 AM on the cloudless morning of Thursday, September 1, 1859, 33-year-old Richard Carrington—widely acknowledged to be one of England's foremost solar astronomers—was in his well-appointed private observatory. Just as usual on every sunny day, his telescope was projecting an 11-inch-wide image of the sun on a screen, and Carrington skillfully drew the sunspots he saw.

On that morning, he was capturing the likeness of an enormous group of sunspots. Suddenly, before his eyes, two brilliant beads of blinding white light appeared over the sunspots, intensified rapidly, and became kidney-shaped. Realizing that he was witnessing something unprecedented and "being somewhat flurried by the surprise," Carrington later wrote, "I hastily ran to call someone to witness the exhibition with me. On returning within 60 seconds, I was mortified to find that it was already much changed and enfeebled." He and his witness watched the white spots contract to mere pinpoints and disappear.

It was 11:23 AM. Only five minutes had passed.

Just before dawn the next day, skies all over planet Earth erupted in red, green, and purple auroras so brilliant that newspapers could be read as easily as in daylight. Indeed, stunning auroras pulsated even at near tropical latitudes over Cuba, the Bahamas, Jamaica, El Salvador, and Hawaii.

Even more disconcerting, telegraph systems worldwide went haywire. Spark discharges shocked telegraph operators and set the telegraph paper on fire. Even when telegraphers disconnected the batteries powering the lines, aurora-induced electric currents in the wires still allowed messages to be transmitted.

"What Carrington saw was a white-light solar flare—a magnetic explosion on the sun," explains David Hathaway, solar physics team lead at NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center in Huntsville, Alabama.

Now we know that solar flares happen frequently, especially during solar sunspot maximum. Most betray their existence by releasing X-rays (recorded by X-ray telescopes in space) and radio noise (recorded by radio telescopes in space and on Earth). In Carrington's day, however, there were no X-ray satellites or radio telescopes. No one knew flares existed until that September morning when one super-flare produced enough light to rival the brightness of the sun itself.

"It's rare that one can actually see the brightening of the solar surface," says Hathaway. "It takes a lot of energy to heat up the surface of the sun!"

The explosion produced not only a surge of visible light but also a mammoth cloud of charged particles and detached magnetic loops—a "CME"—and hurled that cloud directly toward Earth. The next morning when the CME arrived, it crashed into Earth's magnetic field, causing the global bubble of magnetism that surrounds our planet to shake and quiver. Researchers call this a "geomagnetic storm." Rapidly moving fields induced enormous electric currents that surged through telegraph lines and disrupted communications.

"More than 35 years ago, I began drawing the attention of the space physics community to the 1859 flare and its impact on telecommunications," says Louis J. Lanzerotti, retired Distinguished Member of Technical Staff at Bell Laboratories and current editor of the journal Space Weather. He became aware of the effects of solar geomagnetic storms on terrestrial communications when a huge solar flare on August 4, 1972, knocked out long-distance telephone communication across Illinois. That event, in fact, caused AT&T to redesign its power system for transatlantic cables. A similar flare on March 13, 1989, provoked geomagnetic storms that disrupted electric power transmission from the Hydro Québec generating station in Canada, blacking out most of the province and plunging 6 million people into darkness for 9 hours; aurora-induced power surges even melted power transformers in New Jersey. In December 2005, X-rays from another solar storm disrupted satellite-to-ground communications and Global Positioning System (GPS) navigation signals for about 10 minutes. That may not sound like much, but as Lanzerotti noted, "I would not have wanted to be on a commercial airplane being guided in for a landing by GPS or on a ship being docked by GPS during that 10 minutes."

Another Carrington-class flare would dwarf these events. Fortunately, says Hathaway, they appear to be rare:

"In the 160-year record of geomagnetic storms, the Carrington event is the biggest." It's possible to delve back even farther in time by examining arctic ice. "Energetic particles leave a record in nitrates in ice cores," he explains. "Here again the Carrington event sticks out as the biggest in 500 years and nearly twice as big as the runner-up."

These statistics suggest that Carrington flares are once in a half-millennium events. The statistics are far from solid, however, and Hathaway cautions that we don't understand flares well enough to rule out a repeat in our lifetime.

And what then?

Lanzerotti points out that as electronic technologies have become more sophisticated and more embedded into everyday life, they have also become more vulnerable to solar activity. On Earth, power lines and long-distance telephone cables might be affected by auroral currents, as happened in 1989. Radar, cell phone communications, and GPS receivers could be disrupted by solar radio noise. Experts who have studied the question say there is little to be done to protect satellites from a Carrington-class flare. In fact, a recent paper estimates potential damage to the 900-plus satellites currently in orbit could cost between $30 billion and $70 billion. The best solution, they say: have a pipeline of comsats ready for launch.

Humans in space would be in peril, too. Spacewalking astronauts might have only minutes after the first flash of light to find shelter from energetic solar particles following close on the heels of those initial photons. Their spacecraft would probably have adequate shielding; the key would be getting inside in time.

No wonder NASA and other space agencies around the world have made the study and prediction of flares a priority. Right now a fleet of spacecraft is monitoring the sun, gathering data on flares big and small that may eventually reveal what triggers the explosions. SOHO, Hinode, STEREO, ACE and others are already in orbit while new spacecraft such as the Solar Dynamics Observatory are readying for launch.

Research won't prevent another Carrington flare, but it may make the "flurry of surprise" a thing of the past."




There's also this problem of the flare having to be "directed" at Earth. Earth is a spec compared the sun. It would take well over 1,000,000 earths to equal the mass of the sun. The sun is massive (and large). It's possible that we have missed a super solar flare since 1859 (as in, one occurred, but we failed to observe it), but it's also possible that none actually occurred (I think that this option is more likely than the former). On top of this, super solar flares the size of the one that occurred in 1859 are also not common. In other words, it is very likely we could miss most of the next super flare.

Could it happen? Yup. They predict the damage to be between $30-$70 billion and, currently, our only recourse is back up satellites ready to replace the damaged ones. Power should be out for quite a few people from anywhere from just a few seconds to a couple of days.


quote: (post)
Originally posted by skekUng
I don't recall losing power for years.


I don't recall losing power "for years" being a symptom of a super solar flare.


[SPOILER - highlight to read]: In fact, it would be impossible short of a flare continually erupting for years from an area on the sun that strangely leads* the Earth's orbit around the sun just perfectly to continually bombard the earth with a solar storm.

*Similar to how a gunner has to lead shots for a distant target while both are in motion.


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Old Post Jan 25th, 2011 10:48 PM
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Robtard
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Everyone knows that if there's a super-solar-flare it will be directed at Earth. The Sun's a prick like that.


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Old Post Jan 25th, 2011 10:52 PM
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tsilamini
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quote: (post)
Originally posted by dadudemon
[SPOILER - highlight to read]: In fact, it would be impossible short of a flare continually erupting for years from an area on the sun that strangely leads* the Earth's orbit around the sun just perfectly to continually bombard the earth with a solar storm.

*Similar to how a gunner has to lead shots for a distant target while both are in motion.


so, it isn't actually doing physical harm to electronic equipment or communications infrastructure, just causing them to be non-functional during their exposure to the flare?

like, its not that it is rendering a telephone wire innert and unable to send a signal, but that it is disrupting any signals caught in the flares EM?


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Old Post Jan 25th, 2011 11:07 PM
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dadudemon
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quote: (post)
Originally posted by inimalist
so, it isn't actually doing physical harm to electronic equipment or communications infrastructure, just causing them to be non-functional during their exposure to the flare?

like, its not that it is rendering a telephone wire innert and unable to send a signal, but that it is disrupting any signals caught in the flares EM?


Yes AND it's destroying electronic equipment. Transformers will blow (keep your movie jokes to yourselves...Bay haters) due to too much energy passing through...but that won't be everything.



We will see things ranging from the Quebec incident to static in cell phone calls. The difference is it will be on a much more massive scale and many of our satellites would be damaged and need to be replaced.


I think the problem is: some people think that the Van Allen Belt is completely wiped out and it takes years to "repair." Not true. Guess where those energetic particles come from? That's right: solar wind. The nature of the "wind" would also be the repair of the radiation belts. The earth's magnetism just simply wouldn't cease to exist because that's caused by rotations in the core. Take that, "Knowing" movie believers.


In fact, there are people and proposals out there to get RID of some of the energy in the radiation belts. Odd, isn't it?


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Old Post Jan 25th, 2011 11:56 PM
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