A new Iowa poll shows that Bernie is a mere 7 points behind Hillary, a huge leap from when the campaigning started. Bernie has already passed Hillary in the polls in New Hampshire. What does this mean for Clinton and her campaign?
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Re: Bernie Sanders Closing In On Hillary Clinton
I think it is more of a case of Hillary falling instead of Bernie rising in the poles. I think if Biden gets into the race, both Hillary and Bernie will fall.
Imagine a Biden verses Trump election. I will be laughing my ass off.
It's probably mostly because of Hillary's bad press. No one really trusts her. With Bernie, back in January nobody really knew who he was. With his increased campaigning, he's getting his name out there.
"Sanders, a Vermont U.S. senator, has become a liberal Pied Piper in Iowa not as a vote against Clinton, but because caucusgoers genuinely like him, the poll shows. An overwhelming 96 percent of his backers say they support him and his ideas. Just 2 percent say they're motivated by opposition to Clinton.
Back in January, half of likely Democratic caucusgoers were unfamiliar with Sanders, who has been elected to Congress for 25 years as an independent. He has jumped from 5 percent support in January to 30 percent. Clinton, a famous public figure for decades, has dropped in that period from 56 percent to 37 percent."
Source: http://www.desmoinesregister.com/st...ugust/71387664/
These early polls are never dependable if he can win more important at yes than maybe he might have a shot. At the moment he's just riding a hype train like Ron Paul did in 2012
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Nate Silver's recent article put it in perspective. As of about a week ago, Hillary had WAY more endorsements from Congress and Governors than either she or Obama did 8 years ago at this point. Meanwhile, Bernie has none. Her fundraising is also much more solid.
Bernie's doing a nice job shaking things up. And the poll gap was always going to tighten. Nobody knew who he was until recently. He remains a ridiculous underdog, though.
I really hope that Sanders wins. The things his biggest issues are are my issues, too. Even though we disagree on almost 35% of the issues, the ones I care about the most, we agree on.
But Sanders seems more like the GOP's Ron Paul. He has the much of the stuff that the young people want but is not a viable candidate.
I hope I have to eat my words from this post.
I hope his ugly ass face is giving an acceptance speech and you guys rub it in that I was wrong.
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Last edited by dadudemon on Aug 31st, 2015 at 12:41 PM
However, I looked up alternate definitions and I agree that cronyism is a better fit because this is less about family and much more about friends (which makes cronyism a better fit).
Edit - I was thinking they were her friends (and some are relatives) which is where my comment came from.
For what it's worth, the media tends to use the words interchangeably and forgets that nepotism originally meant family (it comes for the word for "nephew" after all). I try to not use the word even to refer to friends, because I feel like cronyism is a better fit for preferential treatment for friends.
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No, no, you're definitely right. I agree that cronyism is a better fit for what I'm trying to say. Honestly, I had considered "cronyism" my first go around in that post but decided against it due to the politically dynastic nature of the Clintons (Clintons, Rodhams, Boxers, Mezvinskys, and Lockharts). But the list of endorsements for Hillary is much more about friends than it is family so I was in error, homie!
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Last edited by dadudemon on Aug 31st, 2015 at 01:20 PM
At this point I think you can just stick a fork in Hilary, she is done. Likewise I think it would be truly stupid of Sanders to put her on the ticket for VP. Unless Sanders for some reasons wants her own legal problems to become his problems as way.
If I was going to be running for any kind of office I'd avoid Hilary like the plague.
I honestly can't help but find the recent turn of events amusing. There was a time people thought she was a shoe in, but a relatively tame scandal(as far as scandals go) is probably going to bring her down.
I'd almost feel bad for her if it wasn't for the fact she is a millionaire.
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Last edited by Surtur on Aug 31st, 2015 at 04:34 PM
7 points isn't exactly close, and Bernie has the big problem that he still hasn't branched out demographically- Note this is an Iowa poll, a very white state, while he's lacking in other Democrat demographics, and she's quite strong.
This isn't overall, where she's a full 20 points ahead. In other words, the lead could cut in half and it'd still be a landslide win for Hillary.
Like Nate Silver said, this is more likely strength of Bernie than a problem with Hillary, but even so, a lot of enthusiasm from one group doesn't match up well against a much broader support base.
I think a lot of you are really getting caught up into the hype-of-the-moment.
By the numbers, Hillary is easily the best situated and has the biggest lead. And will the e-mail scandal- one which has yet to produce any real wrongdoing- really haunt her all the way to the end of the primaries, let alone the general? I doubt it. I don't know exactly why you think it will. It is, after all, a sign that there's not really anything bigger against her, and at the moment she's not making much in the way of moves even though we all know she has a huge treasure chest and major allies.
A lead getting smaller but still being substantially ahead is not a good time to call a candidate 'done.'
In this case it's even further removed from reality than the "liberals fear Trump" mantra. So this time we're afraid that a particular Democratic candidate will fall? Aren't Bernie and Biden, more or less, on the same team? Certainly everyone will prefer a particular candidate. But if she's really as unelectable as TI insinuates, I'd think we'd be happy at her replacement.
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Aug 30th, 2015 04:18 PM
