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Two Articles On Climate Change
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DarthSkywalker0
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Two Articles On Climate Change

Old Post Jan 27th, 2018 04:01 AM
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Flyattractor
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Yes. You are pretty well Brain Washed.


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Old Post Jan 27th, 2018 09:55 AM
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Beniboybling
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The second article doesn't seem to really make sense. The author says:
quote:
I am pointing out that even one of the leading models that underpins the so-called consensus on climate-change activism shows that this is hardly the planetary crisis that the rhetoric of Smith and others would suggest. The actual numbers are in the same ballpark as those of trade deals -- and nobody thinks the fate of the planet hangs on the passage of a trade deal.
And yet, he fails to provide any evidence that suggests the failure of the TPP deal would result in a loss of $22tn dollars, which is about 30% of our current global GDP. The fact that we stand to gain $3tn dollars from taking action, like in this trade deal, does not make it the same if we are still making a net loss of $19tn.

Nor do the economic figures account for the immense loss of life, livelihoods, and damage to ecosystems the world over that climate change is predicted to, and in fact is already starting to cause. I don't believe that's threatened by a TPP deal either.

In short his comparison seems disingenuine, if not down right ridiculous. no expression

As for the first article, there is a recent 2016 study from LSE that does what the author tries to but in a peer-reviewed journal. And it finds the following:

https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate2972
quote:
We find that the expected 'climate value at risk' (climate VaR) of global financial assets today is 1.8% along a business-as-usual emissions path. Taking a representative estimate of global financial assets, this amounts to US$2.5 trillion. However, much of the risk is in the tail. For example, the 99th percentile climate VaR is 16.9%, or US$24.2 trillion. These estimates would constitute a substantial write-down in the fundamental value of financial assets. Cutting emissions to limit warming to no more than 2C reduces the climate VaR by an expected 0.6 percentage points, and the 99th percentile reduction is 7.7 percentage points. Including mitigation costs, the present value of global financial assets is an expected 0.2% higher when warming is limited to no more than 2C, compared with business as usual. The 99th percentile is 9.1% higher. Limiting warming to no more than 2C makes financial sense to risk-neutral investors--and even more so to the risk averse.
Or rather, supports the 2C goal that the Paris Climate Accords have suggested.

(Interestingly, another study from Stanford tackles this from the angle of economic productivity as affected by climate, and finds that unmitigated warming will reduce global incomes by 23%, ouch.)

However, neither of these articles appear to account for the financial gains that are to be had from mitigitating climate change by investing in renewable energies. Which a recent IFC study, in terms of the Paris Climate Agreement, reports as offering $23 trillion in investment opportunities (excluding the US because, y'know, they quit).

Which would make our net loss like $0. But don't touch my clean coal. sad


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Last edited by Beniboybling on Jan 27th, 2018 at 02:04 PM

Old Post Jan 27th, 2018 01:50 PM
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DarthSkywalker0
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quote:
And yet, he fails to provide any evidence that suggests the failure of the TPP deal would result in a loss of $22tn dollars, which is about 30% of our current global GDP. The fact that we stand to gain $3tn dollars from taking action, like in this trade deal, does not make it the same if we are still making a net loss of $19tn.

Nor do the economic figures account for the immense loss of life, livelihoods, and damage to ecosystems the world over that climate change is predicted to, and in fact is already starting to cause. I don't believe that's threatened by a TPP deal either.

In short his comparison seems disingenuine, if not down right ridiculous. no expression

As for the first article, there is a recent 2016 study from LSE that does what the author tries to but in a peer-reviewed journal. And it finds the following:

https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate2972


I find this point, to be really funny. When talking about a trade deal, he is speaking abstractly and is just trying to note the lack of climate change damages. Murphy does not even support the TPP and its a loss of 22 trillion over a 50 or 100 year period. The economic figures are meant to account for all of those things. The IPCC, the leading source on climate change, produces the statistics to represent the "social cost" of climate change. The TPP is a really shitty example perhaps NAFTA would be better. NAFTA has increased trade between Mexico and in the US drastically and over a 50-year time horizon would probably have a 20 trillion dollar effect on GDP. It is funny that you think a single study outweighs the IPCC and over ten studies cited by Murphy. Regardless, you are completely misrepresenting the study. Murphy and the study are looking at two different things. The study even noted this in its header:

quote:
Investors and financial regulators are increasingly aware of climate-change risks. So far, most of the attention has fallen on whether controls on carbon emissions will strand the assets of fossil-fuel companies1, 2. However, it is no less important to ask, what might be the impact of climate change itself on asset values?

‘Climate value at risk’ of global financial assets | Request PDF. Available from: [url]https://www.researchgate.net/publication/299578319_[/ url]'Climate_value_at_risk'_of_global_financial_as
sets [accessed Jan 27 2018].


Your study is analyzing asset values rather than effect on GDP. And the effect on Global Assets seems quite nominal,

quote:
Including mitigation costs, the present value of global financial assets is an expected 0.2% higher when warming is limited to no more than 2 °C, compared with business as usual. T

‘Climate value at risk’ of global financial assets | Request PDF. Available from: [url]https://www.researchgate.net/publication/299578319_[/ url]'Climate_value_at_risk'_of_global_financial_as
sets [accessed Jan 27 2018].


So, climate change regulation seems to make investment less risky by about 0.2 percent. The effect on global GDP matters far more than the risk on investment especially considering how nominal that risk is. You are either being dishonest or do not understand basic economic language.

Old Post Jan 27th, 2018 03:24 PM
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DarthSkywalker0
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quote:
Or rather, supports the 2C goal that the Paris Climate Accords have suggested.

(Interestingly, another study from Stanford tackles this from the angle of economic productivity as affected by climate, and finds that unmitigated warming will reduce global incomes by 23%, ouch.)

However, neither of these articles appear to account for the financial gains that are to be had from mitigitating climate change by investing in renewable energies. Which a recent IFC study, in terms of the Paris Climate Agreement, reports as offering $23 trillion in investment opportunities (excluding the US because, y'know, they quit).

Which would make our net loss like $0. But don't touch my clean coal. sad


The articles cited do account for the gains. The articles are using data directly out of the International Panel of Climate Change. The IPCC is the most credible source on climate change in the world. Did you even read it?

Old Post Jan 27th, 2018 03:27 PM
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Old Post Jan 27th, 2018 11:37 PM
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DarthSkywalker0
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quote: (post)
Originally posted by Flyattractor
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How am I brainwashed?

Old Post Jan 27th, 2018 11:38 PM
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Old Post Jan 27th, 2018 11:40 PM
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quote: (post)
Originally posted by Flyattractor
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Care to clarify?

Old Post Jan 27th, 2018 11:42 PM
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Old Post Jan 27th, 2018 11:44 PM
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DarthSkywalker0
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quote: (post)
Originally posted by Flyattractor
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Insightful as always Flyattractor. Especially insightful given the fact that I am probably more right then you are.

Old Post Jan 27th, 2018 11:46 PM
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Old Post Jan 27th, 2018 11:51 PM
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Surtur
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quote: (post)
Originally posted by DarthSkywalker0
The articles cited do account for the gains. The articles are using data directly out of the International Panel of Climate Change. The IPCC is the most credible source on climate change in the world. Did you even read it?


So how large of a problem do you think man made climate change is? I've always thought we've probably had some impact,but not as drastic as some try to claim.


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Old Post Jan 27th, 2018 11:54 PM
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DarthSkywalker0
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quote: (post)
Originally posted by Surtur
So how large of a problem do you think man made climate change is? I've always thought we've probably had some impact,but not as drastic as some try to claim.


I tend to be on the side of those advocating for man-made climate change. I just think we need to run a cost-benefit analysis. And as shown in the articles above, regulation and taxation have a more deleterious effect than climate change does.

Old Post Jan 27th, 2018 11:57 PM
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Surtur
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quote: (post)
Originally posted by DarthSkywalker0
I tend to be on the side of those advocating for man-made climate change. I just think we need to run a cost-benefit analysis. And as shown in the articles above, regulation and taxation have a more deleterious effect than climate change does.


Well I get thinking we have an impact, but how large of an impact do you think we have had?


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Old Post Jan 27th, 2018 11:58 PM
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DarthSkywalker0
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quote: (post)
Originally posted by Surtur
Well I get thinking we have an impact, but how large of an impact do you think we have had?


I would wager we are the ones who are principally responsible due to the anomalistic nature of this cycle.

Old Post Jan 27th, 2018 11:59 PM
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Surtur
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quote: (post)
Originally posted by DarthSkywalker0
I would wager we are the ones who are principally responsible due to the anomalistic nature of this cycle.


Interesting, and if the cost effectiveness thing is true it seems the best thing to do now is merely just strive to eventually create better ways of doing things that do not impact the climate as much, as opposed to trying to hamper certain ways of doing things now.


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Old Post Jan 28th, 2018 12:04 AM
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DarthSkywalker0
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quote: (post)
Originally posted by Surtur
Interesting, and if the cost effectiveness thing is true it seems the best thing to do now is merely just strive to eventually create better ways of doing things that do not impact the climate as much, as opposed to trying to hamper certain ways of doing things now.


My thoughts exactly. End the wars, try to convert to electric cars, and support renewable energy when possible. Also, the advent of the driverless cars should severely decrease traffic which would also massively reduce C02 emissions.

Old Post Jan 28th, 2018 12:09 AM
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Flyattractor
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And also don't forget to cut back on Sandwich Production.


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Old Post Jan 28th, 2018 12:11 AM
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Surtur
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quote: (post)
Originally posted by DarthSkywalker0
My thoughts exactly. End the wars, try to convert to electric cars, and support renewable energy when possible. Also, the advent of the driverless cars should severely decrease traffic which would also massively reduce C02 emissions.


Speaking of electric cars, this is ridiculous:

LAPD spent millions on 'green' electric BMWs used for joyrides to nail salons, day lunches: report


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Old Post Jan 28th, 2018 12:12 AM
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