What will be the outcome of the US 2018 Midterm elections?
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Megatsunami: Democrats win more than 75 seats in the House, and increase Senate seats to 54 (taking Texas, Tennessee, Nevada, Arizona and one of the Mississippi seats)
4
14.29%
Tsunami: Democrats win more than 50 seats in the House, and increase Senate seats to 52-53 (taking Tennessee, Nevada and Arizona and either Texas or one of the Mississippi seats).
3
10.71%
Wave: Democrats win more than 25 seats in the House, and increase Senate seats to 51 (taking Nevada and Arizona)
10
35.71%
Ripple: Democrats win between 15-20 seats in the House with Republicans keeping majority. Democrats increase their Senate seats to 50 (taking Nevada).
4
14.29%
Fart: Democrats win less than 10 seats and see no change in Senate seats.
2
7.14%
Liquid Fart: Democrats break even or lose up to 10 seats in the House. Lose 1 red state seat in the Senate, bringing their total down to 48.
1
3.57%
Shitting the Bed: Democrats lose more than 10 seats in the House and lose 2 red state seats in the Senate, bringing their total down to 47.
2
7.14%
Srsly, kys: Democrats lose more than 15 seats in the House and lose 3+ red state seats in the Senate, bringing their total down to 46.
So how do we think the midterms are going to go down? Right now, Democrats are leading about 5-10 points on the generic ballot, which should be around about enough to retake the House. However, gerrymandering probably means they'll need to have a popular vote margin closer to 10 to be safe.
The Senate is rightly seen as a difficult map. But there is some hope for the Dems. Red state Democrats like Heidi Heitkamp (ND) and Joe Manchin (WV) are in some danger but should pull through as long as the Democrats are hitting 2012+ margins. And some states once thought as unwinnable could be coming into play. In Tenneesee, the former Democratic governor who won around two thirds of the vote when he presided over the state is leading according to a recent poll. Texas is seeing an insurgency in the form of Beto O'Rourke, but the odds there are admittedly stacked heavily against the Dems due to Republicans leading heavily in party-ID and the reliance on Democrats for urban centers like Austin and lack of support in rural areas. Both seats in Mississippi are up for grabs, but there would need to be serious African-American turnout and Republican blunders for them to lose either of these seats. As it happens, a neo-confederate is actually vying for the Republican nomination, so I wouldn't write off an upset. But only in the seat that nominates the crazy.
All in all, however, I'd probably put Democratic odds of retaking the Senate at around 20-30%. For the House, though, it's more like 70%. The special election results thus far would suggest a considerably more optimistic picture, but it's uncertain whether the conditions in special elections could be replicated, what with the incumbency effect and all. But given Trump's approval, I can't see how this won't be some sort of wave for Democrats.
Last edited by lazybones on Mar 22nd, 2018 at 08:10 PM
Your Lord knows very well what is in your heart. Your soul suffices this day as a reckoner against you. I need no witnesses. You do not listen to your soul, but listen instead to your anger and your rage.
Despite being assured over and over by Trumpers for most of 2017 that the Democrats were going to lose and lose very big in 2018 because they sang a song and whatnot. I feel they're going to do very well come Nov.
I'd guess at least "Wave" to possibly approaching "Tsunami." edit: And this is based largely on plain and simple optimism
if the elections took place tomorrow it would probably be ultramega-grab-your-ankles-trumpers-tsunami, but gop swiftboat smear merchants will win some people back come november, like they always do.
__________________
Your Lord knows very well what is in your heart. Your soul suffices this day as a reckoner against you. I need no witnesses. You do not listen to your soul, but listen instead to your anger and your rage.
Admit it though, should (yes, pipedream) the Dems take both, it would be glorious. Trump has trouble getting things passed with a Republican controlled House, Senate and Supreme Court. Losing two of the three would stagnate his retarded ass even more.
If the dems win the senate then the GOP are in extremely deep shit. The Senate map is historically favorable for the GOP this year, if they can't hold it in such a scenario then they should sound a red alert because they're probably going to be royally ****ed in 2020.
The first part of the top one is definitely possible when you consider that there are 100+ districts that are more competitive than the PA district that flipped from red to blue last week. If the dems get lucky 75 house seats is absolutely possible, though I don't think very likely. The second half is near impossible. But so was Trump's win.
Vox here reporting on a study that could have dire implications for Democrats. Apparently, Democrats may need to win by as much as 11 points to retake the House, due to the extreme gerrymandering paired with additional clustering of Democrats in urban areas:
__________________ Chicken Boo, what's the matter with you? You don't act like the other chickens do. You wear a disguise to look like human guys, but you're not a man you're a Chicken Boo.
^Trig'd over incorrectly thinking someone else is trig'd.
__________________ Chicken Boo, what's the matter with you? You don't act like the other chickens do. You wear a disguise to look like human guys, but you're not a man you're a Chicken Boo.
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Mar 22nd, 2018 08:03 PM
