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Organize World Cup Teams into Tiers
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Omega Vision
Face Flowed Into Her Eyes

Gender: Male
Location: Miami Metropolitan Area

Organize World Cup Teams into Tiers

The World Cup in Brazil is only a month away, so now's about the time to start making picks and projections.

I devised a rough system of categorization that sorts the qualified teams into four tiers descending from most likely to least likely to win or compete in the final match.

The first tier is the "frontrunner" tier, followed by the second tier (contenders; teams that have a good chance of pulling upsets), then the third tier (longshots; teams that are not likely to go past the round of 16 but have the capacity to pull upsets), and finally he fourth tier (ultra-longshots; teams that stand almost no chance of doing anything significant in the World Cup).

Here's the list of qualified teams:



AFC (4)

Australia
Iran
Japan
South Korea

CAF (5)

Algeria
Cameroon
Ghana
Ivory Coast
Nigeria

OFC (0)

None qualified



CONCACAF (4)

Costa Rica
Honduras
Mexico
United States

CONMEBOL (6)

Argentina
Brazil
Chile
Colombia
Ecuador
Uruguay



UEFA (13)

Belgium
Bosnia and Herzegovina
Croatia
England
France
Germany
Greece
Italy
Netherlands
Portugal
Russia
Spain
Switzerland



Here's my list (I also put the teams in descending order within their tiers)

Front-Runner (First) Tier
Germany
Brazil
Spain
Italy

Contender (Second) Tier
Argentina
Colombia
Belgium
France
Uruguay
Netherlands
Portugal
England

Longshot (Third) Tier
United States
Chile
Russia
Croatia
Japan
Greece
Switzerland
Bosnia
Mexico
Ivory Coast
South Korea

Ultra-Longshot (Fourth) Tier
Ghana
Mexico
Costa Rica
Algeria
Nigeria
Australia
Honduras
Iran
Cameroon


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Old Post May 6th, 2014 02:59 PM
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Omega Vision
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Gender: Male
Location: Miami Metropolitan Area

Oh, Mexico is supposed to be in the longshot tier, ignore the second one.


__________________

“Where the longleaf pines are whispering
to him who loved them so.
Where the faint murmurs now dwindling
echo o’er tide and shore."

-A Grave Epitaph in Santa Rosa County, Florida; I wish I could remember the man's name.

Old Post May 6th, 2014 08:48 PM
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-Pr-
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Location: Ireland.

Looks solid to me, though I'll give it a better read.

Who would you put money on if you were going to?


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Old Post May 7th, 2014 12:18 AM
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Omega Vision
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Location: Miami Metropolitan Area

The answer is always Germany for me.


__________________

“Where the longleaf pines are whispering
to him who loved them so.
Where the faint murmurs now dwindling
echo o’er tide and shore."

-A Grave Epitaph in Santa Rosa County, Florida; I wish I could remember the man's name.

Old Post May 7th, 2014 03:27 AM
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eaebiakuya
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I would change Italy with Argentina.

Old Post Jun 10th, 2014 09:26 PM
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Omega Vision
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Location: Miami Metropolitan Area

I guess my changes now would be to move down Uruguay to the bottom of the contender tier, move Costa Rica up to middle-low longshot from ultra-longshot, and move Netherlands to frontrunner. Spain is still a frontrunner, but it's at the bottom now. Also swap Ivory Coast and Japan's positions.


__________________

“Where the longleaf pines are whispering
to him who loved them so.
Where the faint murmurs now dwindling
echo o’er tide and shore."

-A Grave Epitaph in Santa Rosa County, Florida; I wish I could remember the man's name.

Last edited by Omega Vision on Jun 16th, 2014 at 06:50 PM

Old Post Jun 16th, 2014 06:48 PM
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Bardock42
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If you keep updating it til after the last game you'll be super correct!


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Old Post Jun 16th, 2014 07:19 PM
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Digi
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I love arbitrary lists for sports, I do a lot of it myself. But for something like this, I'm wondering why you didn't just use betting odds. They're not perfect, granted, but they do accurately place the general sentiment on teams.

If you dislike betting odds, Nate Silver's website FiveThirtyEight has some great statistical analysis, and it's continually updated to reflect match results:
http://fivethirtyeight.com/interactives/world-cup/

So for example, the US had the smallest chance to escape their group at the beginning (though Ghana was close), but now they have a 68.5% chance of making it to the knockout stage.

By their calculations (they detail their methodology in the link if you're interested), Brazil is a ridiculous favorite, even more so than the betting odds would suggest.


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Old Post Jun 17th, 2014 06:56 PM
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Omega Vision
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Gender: Male
Location: Miami Metropolitan Area

Lol, Spain to longshot.


__________________

“Where the longleaf pines are whispering
to him who loved them so.
Where the faint murmurs now dwindling
echo o’er tide and shore."

-A Grave Epitaph in Santa Rosa County, Florida; I wish I could remember the man's name.

Old Post Jun 18th, 2014 08:33 PM
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Bardock42
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Brazil seems overrated. Both games were pretty poor showings.


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Old Post Jun 18th, 2014 08:35 PM
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