What will be the outcome of the US 2018 Midterm elections?
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Megatsunami: Democrats win more than 75 seats in the House, and increase Senate seats to 54 (taking Texas, Tennessee, Nevada, Arizona and one of the Mississippi seats)
4
14.29%
Tsunami: Democrats win more than 50 seats in the House, and increase Senate seats to 52-53 (taking Tennessee, Nevada and Arizona and either Texas or one of the Mississippi seats).
3
10.71%
Wave: Democrats win more than 25 seats in the House, and increase Senate seats to 51 (taking Nevada and Arizona)
10
35.71%
Ripple: Democrats win between 15-20 seats in the House with Republicans keeping majority. Democrats increase their Senate seats to 50 (taking Nevada).
4
14.29%
Fart: Democrats win less than 10 seats and see no change in Senate seats.
2
7.14%
Liquid Fart: Democrats break even or lose up to 10 seats in the House. Lose 1 red state seat in the Senate, bringing their total down to 48.
1
3.57%
Shitting the Bed: Democrats lose more than 10 seats in the House and lose 2 red state seats in the Senate, bringing their total down to 47.
2
7.14%
Srsly, kys: Democrats lose more than 15 seats in the House and lose 3+ red state seats in the Senate, bringing their total down to 46.
I was partially incorrect, seems that district is a very Red district.
So congrats to Bishop for winning, as a win is a win. But it's telling that despite Trump, Pence and the cult's favorite son Donnie Jr. all speaking/rallying in N.C. on Bishop's behalf, he still only won by 2 points, when a Republican should have cleaned house there.
Margins now matter in future elections and 2020 is only a year or so away.
I heard on the radio the guy was down in the polls until Trump got involved. In normal times this should have been an easy win and the margin might indeed be a portent of some sort of doom for the republican party. We aren't living in normal times so I'd be wary of looking to the results of elections like these as some sort of indication of the future.
If this guy had won by a landslide we'd be hearing about how it had nothing to do with Trump, it happened only because it has been traditionally red, how it doesn't signify much of a big deal in terms of his election chances, etc. lol.
Btw there was more than 1 election in NC last night and in another one the republican(Greg Murphy) won and it was not by any slim margin. So you see what I mean? Folk should be wary of looking to these as any indication of how 2020 will go.
__________________ Chicken Boo, what's the matter with you? You don't act like the other chickens do. You wear a disguise to look like human guys, but you're not a man you're a Chicken Boo.
Yep, so one election went as expected and one didn't.
Not something I'd cling to, especially in regards to Trump...considering a few weeks ago Bishop was 17 points behind.
__________________ Chicken Boo, what's the matter with you? You don't act like the other chickens do. You wear a disguise to look like human guys, but you're not a man you're a Chicken Boo.
I want to see how much money was thrown at this district as well that only went Republican by 2% which was heavily red previously.
Money spent:
Dan McCready: 4,470,374.25
Dan Bishop: 1,761,558.40
The "blue wave" in 2018 had a Gigantic cost for the democrats in actual $$, I wonder if that will have an effect on 2020 if they don't refill their coffers.
Last edited by snowdragon on Sep 11th, 2019 at 06:02 PM
^ Repeat: "This means nothing" is exactly the type of viewpoint I hope Trumpers low and high actually believe and are not just saying to show a front. Only will help the Dems in 2020.
If you deduct the cash-on-hand, Dems spent about 2.25 times more than Reps there. Which isn't unreasonable considering just how historically Red that district was. Last time Dem won there was in 1963 iirc.
Also, don't think that's factoring in that Trump, Pence and Donnie Jr rallied there too, that isn't free; that cost money. Flying Trump out there alone cost millions.
I see Trump's already taking all the credit for Bishop winning. If he had lost, Trump would be blaming everyone but himself as he's done before. Too funny.
Sure but I'm not trying to get into all of that, which is why I posted the 538 article which resonated with what you said previously.
There are always the "unknowns" and other factors, for one we know that without Trump/Pence Republicans would have lost that election regardless of money.
It's just interesting to track spending and voting because we can look at previous elections and see how they affect the outcome as one variable.
Repeat: it's not something I'd cling to, but you do you. I get you need this narrative to be true.
__________________ Chicken Boo, what's the matter with you? You don't act like the other chickens do. You wear a disguise to look like human guys, but you're not a man you're a Chicken Boo.
"Cling to" is just another strawman you're pushing and that's expected out of you.
Reality: Margins of win/loss and patterns therein is what is being looked at, from both sides. eg Republican campaign managers and strategist are absolutely looking at this measly 2pt win too and factoring in what changed, why and how they can reverse it in other similar areas for 2020.
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Sep 11th, 2019 04:31 PM
