I think after he does a few hits she'll get his pattern.
It depends on how Kurt fights, if the first thing he does is port her high up, he'll win. If he tries to do hit-and-port tactics, I think she'll take him down.
AoA Nightcrawler ported Deadpool's head off, and a favored tactic of his was ending fights via dismemberment. Although 616 wouldn't do that unless it was absolutely necessary or he was mind controlled. But I think he could take it with a port blitz.
If Wolverine can use his ninja skills and hide in plain view from Nighty, then I think Shiva can to. Wolverine played Kurt for a chump when they were training.
But this is a brawl, I doubt Shiva would be trying to hide from Kurt. And figuring out his pattern is hard, especially when he blitzes so fast he can hit you from multiple angles within a few seconds.
Yea, it's a well known fact that the 1st time somebody ports with Kurt, they feel sick. And it takes a while to get tolerable, although you never really get used to it. Since she's never experienced it before, she'll pass out after a few good ones.
It does make more sense that the actual teleportation 3 miles up knocked him out rather than fall. Since the guys taken full on hits from Colossus with no problems.
He's still human-toughness and fighting someone with pretty freaking amazing speed and skill. It won't be that rarely that she nails him with a KO blow right when he ports in.
Human-toughness? Fail. He's superhuman. He took a hit to the head from behind that could knock out a dozen men with no apparent ill-effects and bested that guy in battle
He's not supposed to have significant superhuman toughness though (are you sure he wasn't supposed to have rolled with it? Because otherwise... total PIS).
And he's still not tough enough to withstand Shiva in any case. She casually demolished Killer Croc, breaking several bones without him even noticing, and Croc definitely has more toughness than Kurt.