This may seem to be a silly thread at first. Surely, the indicators point to a Trump victory being unlikely: Low approvals, bleak midterm outlook and an ongoing investigation into Russian collusion which could bring this administration down around our ears, among other things.
However, I think this kind of thinking risks wading into the sort of complacency that helped get Trump elected in the first place. And after thinking of the factors in his favor, I am tempted to say that Trump is more likely than not to win the next election, or at least more likely than most would grant him, barring a disruptive time-bomb that throws him off course. Here are but some of the factors:
Legislative Successes: Whether you like it or not, the tax reform bill is a legislative success. Since its passing, the approval of the bill has risen to over 50%, and some of the more hysterical Democratic predictions are now looking a tad silly in retrospect. It is true, of course, the tax bill will be damaging to many Americans in the long term, due to the chained CPI method of adjusting tax brackets and 1 trillion of additional debt. But these ill effects will likely not manifest until after the 2020 election, and Trump can cling to it as an example of a legislative success, particularly as it contained within some other Republican priorities (eliminating the deeply unpopular individual mandate). There are also his successes on the Supreme Court and action on immigration, which serve to please the conservative and nationalist wings respectively.
Strong Economy: Simply put, the economy is doing very well at the moment, and that is always good news for the incumbent. There are some cracks starting to show, but unless the dam bursts before 2020, then Trump can use the economy to his advantage. Even now, a poll shows the plurality of voters crediting Trump to the good economy over Obama. And although a quick look at the GDP/unemployment figures clearly reveal that almost all the recovery occurred pre-Trump, this isn't something that the country at large seems to think now, particularly the less educated. As we approach 2020, the number of voters crediting Trump will likely continue to increase, and it will be a major cudgel against Democratic candidates, who Trump could paint as threatening to throw the economy off course with higher taxes and regulation.
First Term President: This factor may not seem like a massive one at first, but it is significant. Since the New Deal, only three presidents have been thrown out after a single term: Bush Senior, Gerald Ford and Jimmy Carter. All three of whom were either overseeing scandals, foreign policy crises, precarious economic situations or combinations of the three. Two of the three were also up against very charismatic individuals, Clinton against Bush and Reagan against Carter. So if history is any indicator, then Trump is to serve 8 years, assuming the bubble doesn't burst before 2020 and Trump at least makes it out of the Russia investigation intact. To hammer this point home, I would simply point to recent times. The Democrats under Obama got horribly crushed in the 2010 midterms and faced a highly energetic GOP base, yet still won emphatically in 2012. To topple a first term president is a difficult undertaking, and Trump will likely be in a stronger position than any of the three presidents mentioned.
Weak and Divided Opposition: A President cannot be toppled without a strong opposition. And right now, the Democrats are looking like a pretty weak opposition. Poor messaging and unpopular figureheads like Pelosi convey the message that the Democrats have not truly learnt from 2016. I mean, how many specifics of the 'Better Deal' package that the Democrats put forward last year can you remember? I'm guessing, not many. Let's face it, the Democrats are shit at messaging, and they haven't yet produced a Clinton/Reagan-tier political operator that is likely needed to topple a first term president. Not to mention that the 2020 Democratic field is likely to be very wide and bitterly contested. Lots of talent there, to be sure, but lots of potential for infighting. Not a good place to be in against a President who will likely have brought the Republican Party to heel by the time Democrats have done nominating. On the other hand, there is certainly energy on the Democratic side, but that will need to be properly harnessed by a strong candidate in order to ride it to the rout that most Democrats want to see.
Cowed Conservatives: When running in 2016, Trump commandeered a divided party in which a large portion of conservatives viewed him with suspicion. If you've seen even a few clips from the recent CPAC or recent news in general, it is clear that the conservative movement has now happily assimilated Trump's politics into its own, with previously staunch Trump-sceptics like Ben Shapiro, Ted Cruz and Mitt Romney joyously licking Trump's boots. Many talk of a Kasich run, and there is certainly the potential for that, but it will likely only draw support from the moderate and liberal wings of Republican party, and isn't a certainty to begin with. And with one of the most prominent groups of intra-party agitators now on a leash, Trump can spend the years 2019/2020 building up party infrastructure and raking in endorsements from figures that withheld them before.
Strong VP: Polling shows that VP Mike Pence accrues considerably higher approval ratings than Trump. As a former radio host, Pence is an effective communicator that acts as the human face of the Trump administration. This is a smaller factor compared to the others. But if the Democrats put forward another Tim Kaine, then Pence could once again pull the Trump campaign back from the brink in the case of a first debate shellacking.
Weakened Media: The free press is a popular target for aspiring democratators, and Trump has done an extraordinary job of defanging critical press and dodging scandals. Whereas just back in 2016 the media could inflict notable damage on Trump, the efficacy of the media seems to be weakening by every passing day. By 2020, it is not unreasonable to say that Trump could be impervious to almost any possible media-storm, except the holy grail of Russia-Trump collusion.
There are plenty more factors that could be added here: the persistent loyalty of the white male demographic to GOP/Trump, rigid partisanship greatly solidifying Trump's support, big money and Wall Street now being in Trump's corner, the possibility of a popularity-boosting foreign intervention and voter suppression. But essentially, I think you can bring up more reasons for Trump winning than losing at this point. Of course, the Russia investigation is a big question mark. But as long as Trump doesn't go out in total flames, it will be perfectly possible for him to salvage his 2020 bid and go onto to victory. I have absolutely zero wish for this to happen, just to be clear, and I definitely don't rule out an emphatic Democratic victory if they get their shit together or if Trump is consumed by sufficient scandal. But I'm not totally confident it will be the cakewalk that many (including myself) hope for it to be.
Gender: Male Location: The Proud Nation of Kekistan
Re: Trump: Favorite to Win 2020?
These two seem like the biggest factors to me tbh
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Trump/Russia is not a Democratic message, the head investigator is a Republican 😐. I know you wanna bury it so bad so you can live in blissful ignorance of your guy being the bad guy.
I think something like a Gillibrand/Brown ticket could be pretty strong, tbh. Gillibrand could win women voters whilst Sherrod Brown would give Democrats a Mid-West boost and help bring Ohio back into play. However, Gillibrand could be dogged with accusations of political shapeshifting because she once had an 'A' grade from the NRA but made a U-turn after becoming Senator. So there's definitely some baggage there.
Biden and Sanders are more obvious choices, but there are avenues of attack against both of them (Biden, through harking back to the negative aspects of the Obama years, and Sanders via the 'socialist/communist' scaremongering). And they're both polling at the front, so they'll likely be tearing into each other during the primary and bringing their numbers down. A divided Democratic convention could be devastating, and have the party limping into the fight against Trump.
Last edited by lazybones on Mar 1st, 2018 at 11:23 PM
Do tell me when there is evidence of a crime and someone has been convicted of it. You think Bob Mueller is going to let his friend James Comey look bad?
Did you know its a conflict of interest to have the lead prosecutor having a personal friendship with the lead witness. This is Law 101? I don't care what political party someone says they are, makes no difference to me.
Gender: Male Location: The Proud Nation of Kekistan
If Gillibrand runs I’m voting for Trump kek
__________________
Shadilay my brothers and sisters. With any luck we will throw off the shackles of normie oppression. We have nothing to lose but our chains! Praise Kek!
THE MOTTO IS "IN KEK WE TRUST"
Yeah, division would kill them the worst. I don’t know much about Gillibrand, so I’d say the Democrats need a fresh face. Someone completely new to the public and unburdened by controversy.
Kamala Harris or maybe even that new Kennedy guy, we’ll see
That's not being honest. Comey is a life-long Republican who only labelled himself "independent" after Trump fired him to interfere with the then investigation.
I don't think Sanders would have very good odds this time around. He alienated a lot of his own base, he's had potential scandals of his own since the election, and constantly playing the race card as a weapon against white people just isn't going to go over as well anymore.
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Mar 1st, 2018 10:12 PM
