Do you play and do you think its rigged or not fixed?
I recently bought 3 tickets for a 50 million dollar prize cost me 15$
when I saw the winning numbers it started off with 14, and it made me wonder? who would start the first number at 14? It starts at 1 to 50/ you can choose 7 numbers. It never starts at 14, it always starts at 02 or 05 or something lower then works its way up.
Sometimes I feel its controlled.
Drawing Results :
Bonus:14 26 31 34 37 38 45 48 they never have numbers so close together?
Would you like to see the odds on that? I could tell you but you'd laugh because it sounds like a number an infant made up so I have to actually show you the numbers.
There are 30414093201713378043612608166064768844377641568960
512000000000000 different outcomes for that (note that KMC's software doesn't even know how to deal with a string of digits that long). So its rigged in the sense that the grand prize is extremely safe. If everyone on earth bought a billion tickets a second for a billion days the odds of any ticket hitting all seven numbers correctly between all of us would be several orders of magnitude less than one in a billion.
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Last edited by Symmetric Chaos on Jul 8th, 2012 at 09:58 PM
That should be expected. The odds of winning on a given week are low, the odds of two consecutive wins are lower than that. Moreover after a win the jackpot drops which means fewer people buy tickets.
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The ones that mainly win on the lottery are the ones selling the tickets.
Either way it's a 50^-8 chance — or one in 39 trillion. So if you pay $1 for a ticket with those odds the prize should be $39 trillion, that would be fair. Now you might want to cut a few percentage out of that if they intend to go with profit, but $50 million is ridiculous. You're being scammed.
Last edited by Astner on Jul 8th, 2012 at 11:40 PM
Last I checked--mind you this was months ago--the California lottery was up to 500-600 million. Nowhere close to 39 trillion, obviously, but still quite a bit of money for anyone who plays the lottery.
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To the OP: what the heck lottery are you playing? MegaMillions and Power Ball are only $1 per ticket and the winning amounts often get into the hundreds of millions.
I don't play the lottery, and so I assumed that the same number between 01 and 50 can be generated more than once, i.e. 29, 49, 49,, 35, 49 ...
In which case the first number is randomly selected from 50 different numbers, and so is the second, the third, etc.
In which case you do have 1/(50^8), or 1 in 36 trillion.
Now if the same numbers can't be chosen more than once, then the first number is randomly selected out of 50, the second out of the remaining 49, etc.
In which case you'll have: 1/(50*49*...*43) or more generally: (50-8)!/50!, in which your 1 in 22 trillion.
If you want to remove the order as well, i.e. as long as you select number 50 it doesn't matter where it pops up as long as it pops up then you'll have 8!(50-8)!/50!, or 1 in 537 million which — while a lot fairer — is still a rip-off.
Last edited by Astner on Jul 9th, 2012 at 10:23 AM
Since 7 numbers are drawn (they put 50 numbered balls into a tank, 1-50, and pull one ball out at a time), and none of the numbers are the same, I think the probability of guessing it is this:
1/(50^7), 1/(50!/(50-7)!), or 1/(50!/(7!*(50-7)!).
Either way, the last gives 1 in 99,884,400, so $1 for $50 million isn't too bad, assuming that you have other prizes, and that you'll have to cover other the making of the ticket, the hiring, the air time, etc.
How is 1/50! the same as 42!/50! ? I don't follow that generalization.
I any event I got a number vastly larger than 22 trillion (straight up 50! for the number of permutations) but I think I see my mistake now. They rearrange the numbers into rising order after being drawn (otherwise they wouldn't be organized like that every time) so order doesn't actually matter.
50!/(7!*43!) should be the number of combinations but that's just under 100 million. [edit: which I see you just got in the next post along with more of that physicist compulsion to add division to things ]
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Graffiti outside Latin class.
Sed quis custodiet ipsos custodes?
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Last edited by Symmetric Chaos on Jul 9th, 2012 at 02:19 PM
It's not rigged, how lotteries work is very clear.
And that clearness is why I don't play, cause:
As for the usually not having a winner following a big win (though I don't know whether that is actually accurate) I assume could be explained by less people playing due to there being a smaller jackpot. The chances are the same, but less people play, so it's less likely there's a winner.
Also, the GDP of the world is only about 65 trillion, the more you know
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Last edited by Bardock42 on Jul 9th, 2012 at 09:43 PM
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