Walker doesn't directly compete with Trump niche-wise compared to some, he's more head-to-head with Jeb- if he can do better in a second debate than he did the first, I think he can stay in for some time.
There was a time he was topping Jeb after all, it's just his non-presence the first time out hurt him.
That said, if he follows up his weak performance with another weak performance, yea, he may be the first candidate who's been a frontrunner to leave.
Or more specifically on how candidates with an early spike that fades like Walker rarely recover- it's basically a stage of trying out, and even if the ones who moved on decide they don't like their new candidate, they're more likely to move in to a third than to move back.
"Candidates like Rick Perry, Michele Bachmann, others who have had a seasonal high, especially in the summer season, then find it a very difficult journey to get back to the top," said Bob Vander Plaats, an influential Iowa conservative, in an interview Friday. "People look at them initially, they went with them, then they found a better option and they leave with that better option. [If they leave] Trump, will they go back to Walker, or will they go to, say, a Ted Cruz? Historically it's fair to say they're going to look for somebody else."
Well, *probably*, but not certainly. A race this big can be unpredictable, we don't know what developments could occur. If Jeb self destructs, let's say, then that's a lot of establishment-minded people who could head in Walker's direction.
Interestingly, he has his share of endorsements, so he's got more support on the political side (more than almost all the competitors, even much higher polling ones) than he does on the public side.
After the bridge scandal though, he does not strike me as a strong candidate. Heck, he's below Kasich.
So, I basically agree with you on both, but do note we're just talking 'probably' here.
Registered: Oct 2009
Location: Miami Metropolitan Area
I think actual prospects aren't always as important as personal drive and conviction when it comes to someone staying in the race. Christie probably still thinks he can win, though, as you put it, that's probably not supported by reality. If Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio, Rand Paul, and Scott Walker all pulled out tomorrow Chris Christie would become the establishment candidate and it would be a two or three man race between him, Trump, and whoever the religious conservatives end up rallying behind, but that's not going to happen.
Makes you wonder though where he'd be if Bridgegate had never happened.
__________________
“Where the longleaf pines are whispering
to him who loved them so.
Where the faint murmurs now dwindling
echo o’er tide and shore."
-A Grave Epitaph in Santa Rosa County, Florida; I wish I could remember the man's name.
Christie at least has *some* support, and his personality really doesn't lend to quitting easily, so it'll likely be money-based for him.
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Some big images of the rankings per state: (please log in to view the image)(please log in to view the image)(please log in to view the image)
It's interesting that all the 'establishment' candidates (Bush, Rubio, Walker, Kasich, Christie) *combined* are polling worse than just-Romney was last time.
The party powerbrokers are not showing a lot of control of this race so far.
Registered: Oct 2009
Location: Miami Metropolitan Area
The Republican electorate seems to just be disillusioned with the party and its insiders. That's basically the beginning of the end of any serious political party. It's like the parties have switched places. It used to be the Democratic Party where everyone was jockeying viciously for place while in the GOP there was some understanding that while candidates could squabble, there would be a chosen candidate and everyone else would fall in line. That may not happen this time.
I'll admit now, I had no idea Trump's momentum would last this long, and I'm probably eating my words from a few months ago. At this point I'm just fascinated to see what happens next. I still can't imagine President Trump (not with the Latino vote out of his reach), but Candidate Trump has become a realistic possibility.
__________________
“Where the longleaf pines are whispering
to him who loved them so.
Where the faint murmurs now dwindling
echo o’er tide and shore."
-A Grave Epitaph in Santa Rosa County, Florida; I wish I could remember the man's name.
Last edited by Omega Vision on Sep 14th, 2015 at 12:10 AM
Right. He still has some major hurdles, but it definitely has surpassed my expectations as well.
To me, I was still remembering when Obama so casually slapped down his last attempt, and I thought the other Republican candidates wouldn't have much more trouble doing so.
But toss in the two biggest competitors at the debate underperforming, and Trump has his foot more than in the door.
A lot of the current candidates were governors during the financial crash and recovery and the times before it.
FiveThirtyEight did a calculation of what the neutral/'expected' performance would be for their state, and if the individual candidates underperformed or overperformed:
(please log in to view the image)
Jeb did a bit better than average in the boom time, but recovery wise did nothing out of line with the expected. Walker's pretty much exactly on the expectations line. Huckabee's performance sucked.
Registered: Oct 2009
Location: Miami Metropolitan Area
Saw a poll that indicated that up to 60% of Republican voters have yet to make a decision on which candidate to back. If this is accurate, then the support for Trump and Carson early on may only indicate their popularity among the more politically proactive rather than indicating solid strength and staying power when the primaries start and shit gets real.
__________________
“Where the longleaf pines are whispering
to him who loved them so.
Where the faint murmurs now dwindling
echo o’er tide and shore."
-A Grave Epitaph in Santa Rosa County, Florida; I wish I could remember the man's name.
Sep 12th, 2015 04:10 PM
