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Analysis of Trump''s Tax Plan
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DarthSkywalker0
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quote: (post)
Originally posted by lazybones
Misleading graphic. The Federal Poverty Rate is calculated using pre-tax income, and excludes vital benefits such as the Earned Income Tax Credit, Food Stamps, Housing Assistance and Medicaid. The Center on Budget and Policy Prorities estimates that about 10 million are lifted out of poverty thanks to the EITC alone, and about 5 million children as well.


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https://www.vox.com/2015/9/16/93370...poverty-measure

Strong welfare states are both essential and desirable, and not just for moral reasons. And such welfare states require progressive taxation because charity just won't cut it.


Well, this is a half truth. While it is true that absolute poverty measure does not include the earned income tax credit nor the child tax credit, the Supplemental Poverty Measure does and it still paints a dreary picture.

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While does this does depict a greater drop in poverty, it does not contrast the decline in previous years. The poverty rate was already falling drastically before The War On Poverty was implemented. In fact, the biggest drops on this chart transpired during the welfare cuts of 1996.The SPM does show that poverty has dropped, despite the lukewarm results what it does not show is the fact that such drops are simply due to government handouts. We can use the Anchored Supplemental Poverty Measure Before Taxes and Transfers to assess welfare's success. This measure shows people's ability to earn money without the taxes and subsidization.

quote:
Shortly after the War on Poverty got rolling (1967), about 27% of Americans lived in poverty. In 2012, the last year for which data is available, the number was about 29%.


We have spent 22 trillion dollars in an attempt to prevent poverty. GDP has grown immensely since 1967.

quote:
U.S. real GDP (RGDP) per capita (in 4Q2013 dollars) increased by 127.3%, from $23,706 to $52,809. In other words, to stay out of poverty in 1967, the two adults in a typical family of four had to capture 26.9% of their familyís proportionate share of RGDP (i.e., average RGDP per capita, times four). To accomplish the same thing in 2012, they only had to pull in 12.1% of their familyís share of RGDP. And yet, fewer people were able to manage this in 2012 than in 1967.


The incentive structure created by the welfare state has discouraged economic recovery and has turned government into a post to lean on rather than a trampoline upon which to jump off of. We can contrast this startling number with poverty declination in the past. Real income in 1990 was 15 times greater than it was in 1900. Real per capita income was over four and one-half times greater in 1990 than in 1900. Not only have real earnings increased drastically so has poverty. 56% of families were poor in the year 1900. In 1947, despite the economic troubles of the Great Depression and WWII, the poverty rate had gone down to 27%. This number decreased way before the War on Poverty even began. One more note regarding the SPM, California has the highest SPM out of any state in the nation. California has one of the biggest welfare states in the nation. You also seemingly purported that welfare without the state is not enough. I already mentioned the decrease in poverty in the 1900s, but this topic reminds me of an article published by FEE. It very clearly addresses this conundrum: https://fee.org/articles/welfare-wi...-welfare-state/

Old Post Dec 20th, 2017 04:00 AM
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Beniboybling
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Good to see many woke brothers and sisters on this thread who realise the poor are just lazy and incompetent. mad


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Old Post Dec 20th, 2017 06:44 AM
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snowdragon
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quote: (post)
Originally posted by Beniboybling
Good to see many woke brothers and sisters on this thread who realise the poor are just lazy and incompetent. mad


Woke or educated? How does the trump plan hurt the poor?

Old Post Dec 20th, 2017 06:52 AM
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Beniboybling
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It doesn't, Trump's plan will uplift the poor as newly unburdened gazillionaires reinvest in the economy and create more jawbs. sad


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Old Post Dec 20th, 2017 06:54 AM
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Beniboybling
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quote: (post)
Originally posted by Surtur
I bet Fantasy Island is an island you could get to without being forced to pay taxes. Assuming your fantasy was to live on an island where you aren't forced to pay taxes.
Crazy right, whoever heard of an island where you get to pay next to no taxes.


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Old Post Dec 20th, 2017 07:05 AM
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snowdragon
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quote: (post)
Originally posted by Beniboybling
It doesn't, Trump's plan will uplift the poor as newly unburdened gazillionaires reinvest in the economy and create more jawbs. sad


What a childish sentiment and you never answered my question.

Old Post Dec 20th, 2017 07:11 AM
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Beniboybling
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Agreed, but get this, some people actually believe it. sad


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Old Post Dec 20th, 2017 07:44 AM
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dadudemon
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quote: (post)
Originally posted by Beniboybling
Good to see many woke brothers and sisters on this thread who realise the poor are just lazy and incompetent. mad



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quote: (post)
Originally posted by dadudemon
Sorry, no sympathy for people whining about their situations of not being able to afford to live when they clearly have the English language know how to write an article about how hard their life is at 35 for not getting motivated to do something about it. Clearly, he's intelligent. Clearly, he's well-written and spoken. Clearly, he's lazy and should do something about his situation


quote: (post)
Originally posted by dadudemon
...I...think we should have a universal healthcare system and a universal basic income...


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Old Post Dec 20th, 2017 04:57 PM
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Robtard
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quote: (post)
Originally posted by Beniboybling
Crazy right, whoever heard of an island where you get to pay next to no taxes.


laughing out loud


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Old Post Dec 20th, 2017 04:59 PM
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DarthSkywalker0
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quote: (post)
Originally posted by snowdragon
Woke or educated? How does the trump plan hurt the poor?


It hurts them by enstating numerous sunset clauses which turns the plan into a potempkin phased. So, it helps them for 8 years, before leaving them in the cold to maintain their cost requirements.

Old Post Dec 20th, 2017 05:39 PM
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DarthSkywalker0
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quote: (post)
Originally posted by Beniboybling
Good to see many woke brothers and sisters on this thread who realise the poor are just lazy and incompetent. mad


I don't think the poor are lazy and incompetent. I think welfare creates an incentive structure which breeds indolence. If we eliminated these programs the poor would have a greater incentive to increase their living standards.

Old Post Dec 20th, 2017 05:44 PM
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Robtard
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It looks like Trumptax is going to be made law, so prepare for a recession and then crash in 2-3ish years thumb up


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Old Post Dec 20th, 2017 05:45 PM
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lazybones
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quote: (post)
Originally posted by DarthSkywalker0
Well, this is a half truth. While it is true that absolute poverty measure does not include the earned income tax credit nor the child tax credit, the Supplemental Poverty Measure does and it still paints a dreary picture.

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A ten point drop in poverty is dreary? I'd say that's quite a good result, especially when you break it down further. Poverty among the elderly, for instance, plummeted from around 48% to 16%. Child poverty also experienced a notable decline after the 1996 welfare reforms, although progress in that area is more patchy.

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quote:
While does this does depict a greater drop in poverty, it does not contrast the decline in previous years. The poverty rate was already falling drastically before The War On Poverty was implemented.
Right, but we know in retrospect that millions more would still be in poverty today if these programs were not implemented, even if the downward trend continued. Food stamps alone have profound antipoverty impact, lifting about 4 million out of poverty altogether.

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Add that 4 million to the almost 10 million adults and 5 million children lifted out of poverty due to the EITC+Child Tax Credits, and you've got almost 20 million out of poverty who would not be otherwise. When you add the remaining federal assistance programs, this number rises to 40 million according to the CBPF (citing the Census Bureau). And when you add in the 30 million who have been made "less poor" as shown on the first chart that you responded to, the total number helped by these programs balloons to 70 million. It's possible that if EITC and the like were expanded, then those 30 million "less poor" people would finally be able to leave poverty.

quote:
Public programs lifted 40 million people out of poverty in 2011, including almost 9 million children, according to the Census Bureauís Supplemental Poverty Measure, which counts non-cash benefits and taxes (see chart).


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quote:
In fact, the biggest drops on this chart transpired during the welfare cuts of 1996.
It's inaccurate to call the 1996 Welfare Reforms "cuts". After all, the War on Poverty measures remained intact and welfare spending continued to grow afterwards. What the welfare reform s did was establish strong welfare to work incentives and expand the EITC. These measures were broadly successful at making the welfare system a better ladder out of poverty, and the drop in poverty afterwards simply show the efficacy of a disciplined welfare state.

quote:
The SPM does show that poverty has dropped, despite the lukewarm results what it does not show is the fact that such drops are simply due to government handouts. We can use the Anchored Supplemental Poverty Measure Before Taxes and Transfers to assess welfare's success. This measure shows people's ability to earn money without the taxes and subsidization.
Well, if we want to assess the effect that welfare payments are having on poverty, then it makes sense to include them in our figures. And when we do, the results are quite stunning. And although I accept that non-welfare earnings have not been rising to the same degree, this can be explained by wages lagging severely behind productivity and inflation increases. In that way, welfare is actually an essential fortification of people's incomes against these negative trends.

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quote:
We have spent 22 trillion dollars in an attempt to prevent poverty. GDP has grown immensely since 1967.

The incentive structure created by the welfare state has discouraged economic recovery and has turned government into a post to lean on rather than a trampoline upon which to jump off of.
This is not accurate for a number of reasons. First off, transfers to individuals in the form of credits and entitlements actually produce a net positive economic return, sometimes as high as 2:1. This, by the way, makes a targeted EITC or Medicaid expansion vastly more effective than any corporate tax cut or tax cuts to the middle-upper classes. Secondly, targeted welfare expansions have been shown to increase the number in work. This was seen in the 90s, when an EITC expansion coaxed single mothers out of unemployment. Thirdly, welfare payments such as the EITC made early in life have a profound impact on a child's prospects, so they certainly could be described as a trampoline.


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quote:
We can contrast this startling number with poverty declination in the past. Real income in 1990 was 15 times greater than it was in 1900. Real per capita income was over four and one-half times greater in 1990 than in 1900. Not only have real earnings increased drastically so has poverty. 56% of families were poor in the year 1900. In 1947, despite the economic troubles of the Great Depression and WWII, the poverty rate had gone down to 27%. This number decreased way before the War on Poverty even began.
Some issues here:

- Using poverty rates from 70-100 years ago is going to run into problems due to the immense social changes that have occurred since then, notably the decline of marriage. The way that poverty is classified has also changed.

- 27% poverty is about where we would be if no welfare programs were in place, so this just underlines the crucial need for welfare.

- The US economy was booming in the aftermath of World War 2, due to the devastation of Europe and America's domination of export markets. So a 27% poverty rate is pretty horrendous.


quote:
One more note regarding the SPM, California has the highest SPM out of any state in the nation. California has one of the biggest welfare states in the nation.
Be that as it may, it does not change the fact that welfare payments have lifted more than 4 million Californians out of poverty. Consult tables at the bottom of this article.

https://www.cbpp.org/research/pover...viously-thought

Old Post Dec 20th, 2017 05:58 PM
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Lestov16
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I have a question regarding this tax plan. I know someone who has cerebral palsy which essentially paralyzes their spine, making them unable to walk and barely able to grasp objects. They were born with this condition. Despite this, they have lived independently their entire lives due to SSI providing rent, SNAP benefits providing food, and Medicaid insurance providing medical benefits. How is Trump's tax plan going to effect this individual's subsistence benefits, and if they are removed, what is the justification, given the individual was born with their crippling condition?


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Old Post Dec 20th, 2017 06:56 PM
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Surtur
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I'm at least glad nobody had a hysterical reaction to this tax plan. Good stuff.

Anyways, interesting:

Germans Fear Tax Cut Will Spur US Investment and Growth


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Old Post Dec 20th, 2017 07:59 PM
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lazybones
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quote: (post)
Originally posted by Lestov16
I have a question regarding this tax plan. I know someone who has cerebral palsy which essentially paralyzes their spine, making them unable to walk and barely able to grasp objects. They were born with this condition. Despite this, they have lived independently their entire lives due to SSI providing rent, SNAP benefits providing food, and Medicaid insurance providing medical benefits. How is Trump's tax plan going to effect this individual's subsistence benefits, and if they are removed, what is the justification, given the individual was born with their crippling condition?
The Republicans have been hinting at deep cuts, but not in this tax bill AFAIK. Likely next year.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/nextav...uts-are-likely/

quote: (post)
Originally posted by Surtur
I'm at least glad nobody had a hysterical reaction to this tax plan. Good stuff.

Anyways, interesting:

Germans Fear Tax Cut Will Spur US Investment and Growth
Goldman Sachs appears to disagree and thinks the US will experience negligible to negative economic benefits. Considering there are Goldman Sachs insiders within the Trump administration who would actually have every reason to sugarcoat the tax plan, I am inclined to believe their estimates are accurate or even understating its mediocrity. In the short term, it may attract a trickle of investment but I wouldn't expect anything significant. And international reaction might cancel out the effects.

Only time will tell who is right, though, I suppose.

Old Post Dec 20th, 2017 08:21 PM
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Old Post Dec 20th, 2017 08:28 PM
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Surtur
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Wells Fargo, Fifth Third Bancorp unveil minimum wage hikes after tax bill passage

Nice.

Boeing CEO Dennis Muilenburg unveils $300M in initiatives in response to tax bill

Neat.

AT&T Announces Big Bonuses for Employees After GOP Tax Bill Passage

"This news might come as a black eye for Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, who invoked AT&T as he criticized the GOP reform plan in a speech of dissent today"

lol


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Old Post Dec 20th, 2017 09:44 PM
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Emperordmb
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But I thought rich people were evil


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Old Post Dec 20th, 2017 10:07 PM
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Surtur
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quote: (post)
Originally posted by Emperordmb
But I thought rich people were evil


I thought only rich people would benefit. AT&T must have 200,000 wealthy folk working for it.


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Old Post Dec 20th, 2017 10:09 PM
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