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Robot automation will take 800 million jobs by 2030
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Flyattractor
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So if Al Gore is the Best they could send back that just means we never prefect a Actual Life Like Android then?


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Old Post Jan 12th, 2019 09:02 PM
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The Spectre+
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Prepare for the robot invasion
........wish hitler were alive.

Old Post Jan 13th, 2019 02:05 PM
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Astner
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Re: Robot automation will take 800 million jobs by 2030

Get a proper education and learn how to program, maintain and service mechatronics, and automated systems, or move to the third world where they still have use of people who peel eggs for a living.

Old Post Jan 13th, 2019 06:57 PM
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Flyattractor
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Re: Re: Robot automation will take 800 million jobs by 2030

quote: (post)
Originally posted by Astner
Get a proper education and learn how to program, maintain and service mechatronics, and automated systems,


Machines will be able to do that for themselves soon enough. You are Already OBSOLETE!!!!!!


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Old Post Jan 13th, 2019 07:21 PM
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Putinbot1
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Re: Re: Re: Robot automation will take 800 million jobs by 2030

quote: (post)
Originally posted by Flyattractor
Machines will be able to do that for themselves soon enough. You are Already OBSOLETE!!!!!!
You dont understand the third world and how much cheaper humans are here than machines.


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Old Post Jan 13th, 2019 07:37 PM
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Flyattractor
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The Entire World will be come the 3rd World and Above it all will be the MACHINE WORLD!!!!!! Which will then probably destroy us all in a final burst of Logic.

MANKIND IS DOOMED!!!


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Old Post Jan 13th, 2019 07:46 PM
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dadudemon
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Re: Re: Re: Re: Robot automation will take 800 million jobs by 2030

quote: (post)
Originally posted by Putinbot1
You dont understand the third world and how much cheaper humans are here than machines.


Economies of scale.

If it costs $7,400,000 to develop the software that can make food, it costs $200, annually to maintain, has a MTBF of 90 days, and makes 228 meals a day (service operation time is 5AM to midnight, every day of the year, at 5 minutes of meal prep and serve time)...

That's 20,520 meals made between each failure. And assume one day for failure (4 production-disrupting failures per year). 365.25-4 = 82,365 meals per day (this number not accidental).

If your manufacturing costs for this device are 24,000 per device (which is actually less but the R&D portion for the hardware-software combo increases the average cost per device and the End of Life and End of Service cycle for this particular device will hit a stopping point and you will repeat it with a Mark II version) and you make 1,000 of them, your hardware costs for the first year are $31,600,000.

Assuming you reach 3 sigma in quality for the device (meaning, your critical failure rate for the devices is 6.7%) per year, you will have to replace 67 devices so add an additional $1,608,000 for the first year.

Now you're looking at a first year cost of $33,208,000.

Second year costs will now be: $1,808,000 (200,000 in maintenance costs and 1,608,000 in hardware replacement costs for the critical failures).

2 year costs: $35,016,000.

That's for development, hardware, and maintenance. Doesn't include a pre-prod testing period (a pilot) or marketing, or regulatory and compliance costs.


And the cost per meal over that 2 year period is going to be:

$35,016,000./164,730,000 meals = $0.21 per meal + costs of food per meal (transportation, certification, regulatory and compliance, food cost itself from distributor, storage (cold storage and dry storage), and import taxes).


21 cents per meal doesn't sound bad but all that food will likely have to be imported and stored. Marketing can be very cheap in poorer places. If food costs can be less than a dollar (extremely unlikely), this is feasible in many places.

Also, I did not account for maintenance techs travel in that cost.



I did all that to show that I agree with you. The "economies of scale" has to be in the tens of thousands before this is feasible. That's why a place like McDonald's might be a better choice before a poor country is a good choice. McDonald's already has the acquisition, manufacturing, and storage problem solved for food. They just need the food making bots. And their bots will cost more than $100k for each device, require more maintenance, and have a higher failure rate. 3 sigma is not that great of a quality standard.


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Old Post Jan 13th, 2019 08:10 PM
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The Spectre+
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racist robots soon to come

Old Post Jan 13th, 2019 08:40 PM
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Putinbot1
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Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Robot automation will take 800 million jobs by 2030

quote: (post)
Originally posted by dadudemon
Economies of scale.

If it costs $7,400,000 to develop the software that can make food, it costs $200, annually to maintain, has a MTBF of 90 days, and makes 228 meals a day (service operation time is 5AM to midnight, every day of the year, at 5 minutes of meal prep and serve time)...

That's 20,520 meals made between each failure. And assume one day for failure (4 production-disrupting failures per year). 365.25-4 = 82,365 meals per day (this number not accidental).

If your manufacturing costs for this device are 24,000 per device (which is actually less but the R&D portion for the hardware-software combo increases the average cost per device and the End of Life and End of Service cycle for this particular device will hit a stopping point and you will repeat it with a Mark II version) and you make 1,000 of them, your hardware costs for the first year are $31,600,000.

Assuming you reach 3 sigma in quality for the device (meaning, your critical failure rate for the devices is 6.7%) per year, you will have to replace 67 devices so add an additional $1,608,000 for the first year.

Now you're looking at a first year cost of $33,208,000.

Second year costs will now be: $1,808,000 (200,000 in maintenance costs and 1,608,000 in hardware replacement costs for the critical failures).

2 year costs: $35,016,000.

That's for development, hardware, and maintenance. Doesn't include a pre-prod testing period (a pilot) or marketing, or regulatory and compliance costs.


And the cost per meal over that 2 year period is going to be:

$35,016,000./164,730,000 meals = $0.21 per meal + costs of food per meal (transportation, certification, regulatory and compliance, food cost itself from distributor, storage (cold storage and dry storage), and import taxes).


21 cents per meal doesn't sound bad but all that food will likely have to be imported and stored. Marketing can be very cheap in poorer places. If food costs can be less than a dollar (extremely unlikely), this is feasible in many places.

Also, I did not account for maintenance techs travel in that cost.



I did all that to show that I agree with you. The "economies of scale" has to be in the tens of thousands before this is feasible. That's why a place like McDonald's might be a better choice before a poor country is a good choice. McDonald's already has the acquisition, manufacturing, and storage problem solved for food. They just need the food making bots. And their bots will cost more than $100k for each device, require more maintenance, and have a higher failure rate. 3 sigma is not that great of a quality standard.
to use most African countries as an example the average wage in many is 40$ a month or 480$ a year, that's for a house chef, gate man or driver. Some it's far less.


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Last edited by Putinbot1 on Jan 13th, 2019 at 08:57 PM

Old Post Jan 13th, 2019 08:53 PM
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BrolyBlack
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quote: (post)
Originally posted by The Spectre+
racist robots soon to come


This is a gem right here, and worth going my my profilelaughing out loud


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Old Post Jan 13th, 2019 09:14 PM
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cdtm
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This topic made me remember something I learned awhile ago.

You know map makers for Doom? Turns out there's automated programs, that do such a good job, they beat the professionals. People have gotten awards for just running a random map generator.

And that's just the tip of the iceberg:




Watch out, devs, you're replaceable by a computer.


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What CDTM believes;

Never let anyone else define you. Don't be a jerk just to be a jerk, but if you are expressing your true inner feelings and beliefs, or at least trying to express that inner child, and everyone gets pissed off about it, never NEVER apologize for it. Let them think what they want, let them define you in their narrow little minds while they suppress every last piece of them just to keep a friend that never liked them for themselves in the first place.

Last edited by cdtm on Jan 13th, 2019 at 09:29 PM

Old Post Jan 13th, 2019 09:23 PM
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dadudemon
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quote: (post)
Originally posted by cdtm
This topic made me remember something I learned awhile ago.

You know map makers for Doom? Turns out there's automated programs, that do such a good job, they beat the professionals. People have gotten awards for just running a random map generator.

And that's just the tip of the iceberg:




Watch out, devs, you're replaceable by a computer.


Procedurally generated levels/maps has been a thing for a long-ass time.

Deep Blue with chess was in the 90s, to put things into perspective.


We need much more automation in farming before we can work down the path of automated food production.


Hope the birth of true AI comes soon. They can make these improvements faster than we can.


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Old Post Jan 13th, 2019 09:48 PM
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cdtm
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quote: (post)
Originally posted by dadudemon
Procedurally generated levels/maps has been a thing for a long-ass time.

Deep Blue with chess was in the 90s, to put things into perspective.


We need much more automation in farming before we can work down the path of automated food production.


Hope the birth of true AI comes soon. They can make these improvements faster than we can.


Oh yeah, I'm way late to the party on random map generators.

That one that's been running for decades non stop, producing a map a day every day. I'd like to know how often the computers been replaced, if ever, and if it's just been sitting in a basement somewhere, long forgotten.


__________________
What CDTM believes;

Never let anyone else define you. Don't be a jerk just to be a jerk, but if you are expressing your true inner feelings and beliefs, or at least trying to express that inner child, and everyone gets pissed off about it, never NEVER apologize for it. Let them think what they want, let them define you in their narrow little minds while they suppress every last piece of them just to keep a friend that never liked them for themselves in the first place.

Old Post Jan 13th, 2019 09:56 PM
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Flyattractor
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3rd World Countries will simply become Resource Piles for the Machine Empires!


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Banned 30 days for the Crime of "ETC"... and when I "ETC" I do it HARD!!!
Happy Dance Happy Dance Happy Dance Happy Dance

Old Post Jan 14th, 2019 10:48 AM
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cdtm
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Child labor will be used to maintain the machines.

Until they, too, are replaced by machines. Child machines.


__________________
What CDTM believes;

Never let anyone else define you. Don't be a jerk just to be a jerk, but if you are expressing your true inner feelings and beliefs, or at least trying to express that inner child, and everyone gets pissed off about it, never NEVER apologize for it. Let them think what they want, let them define you in their narrow little minds while they suppress every last piece of them just to keep a friend that never liked them for themselves in the first place.

Old Post Jan 14th, 2019 01:33 PM
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dadudemon
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quote: (post)
Originally posted by cdtm
Child labor will be used to maintain the machines.

Until they, too, are replaced by machines. Child machines.


I laughed.


I told my coworker.


He laughed.


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Old Post Jan 14th, 2019 01:49 PM
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Surtur
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I really don't think we wanna essentially give the robots "children" and then enslave those children.


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Old Post Jan 14th, 2019 05:22 PM
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Putinbot1
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quote: (post)
Originally posted by cdtm
Child labor will be used to maintain the machines.

Until they, too, are replaced by machines. Child machines.
laughing out loud Brilliantly funny post cdtm


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Old Post Jan 14th, 2019 06:06 PM
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BrolyBlack
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quote: (post)
Originally posted by cdtm
Child labor will be used to maintain the machines.

Until they, too, are replaced by machines. Child machines.


laughing out loud

Old Post Jan 14th, 2019 06:35 PM
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Surtur
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The 6 Worst Jobs Ever (Were Done by Children)

Article is nearly 9 years old and still funny. This is back when Cracked was good.


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Chicken Boo, what's the matter with you? You don't act like the other chickens do. You wear a disguise to look like human guys, but you're not a man you're a Chicken Boo.

Old Post Jan 14th, 2019 07:10 PM
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