Since my hand has now been forced, I was going to ask DDM how do the studies account for: those states which follow guidelines, like NY, are doing better than those that aren't, like FL. Then I figured other factors -- not just mask-wearing -- are helping.
Darn you, SM.
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Last edited by Mindship on Jul 6th, 2020 at 03:04 PM
You should talk more about this. No one else really wants to talk about the science and data on KMC. It's just partisan politics and gotchas with no substance.
To get into the factors:
New York still had more deaths than Florida, yesterday. Despite their positive tests being remarkably lower than Florida. Florida saw 10x the number of new cases compared to NY, yesterday. However, overall, NY still had twice the positive cases over time.
Florida also has an older population and more people in it than NY.
New York also got hit harder, faster, than Florida. If you look at their death curve, they got hit the hardest in early April. Florida was almost exactly an entire month after.
And based on the serological testing, New York also was likely among the fastest to have their population infected with serological tests showing that NY had as much as 20% of their population (NYC) infected almost 2 months ago.
Lastly, both NY and Florida locked down at the end of March. However, NY should have locked down at the beginning of Feb. if they wished to use locking down as a tool (at the time, we thought lockdowns were effective but it turns out, they had a positive increase on deaths and a negative on deaths...which is counter-intuitive but that's what the data shows).
If you take a look at the mobility data for social distancing, Florida almost exactly mirrors New York:
Then that explains why Silent Master asked the question he did: looks like he saw your question before the edit.
To catch you up, Silent Master and Surtur have been harping about the hypocrisy of the protests related to police brutality vs. the protests due to lockdown and pointing out which states and cities are Democrat run.
I had some discussion with Surtur about this a few pages back. The police brutality protests do harbor the same potential for being CV19 super-spreader events as tRump rallies, or holiday gatherings, etc IF safety measures are not being observed.
'Tis a good time to be a virus.
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Shinier than a speeding bullet.
Yeah, we got clobbered bad and early. Another factor to consider is that NYC (the epicenter of the epicenter) is the biggest city in the country, the unofficial capital of the world, with major population density. Yet we managed to get CV19 under control, and have kept it that way since. I'm sure FL (or TX or AZ) can do the same thing IF they do what NY did: follow the guidelines. In a sense, I like to think of NY as a pilot study.
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Shinier than a speeding bullet.
Last edited by Mindship on Jul 6th, 2020 at 05:39 PM
So, this would suggest that FL will "catch up" in terms of getting things under control? They just need more time? I hope so. Does the same hold for TX and AZ as compared to NY?
I guess I was hoping that other states would've been more proactive in their response, so they wouldn't mirror us, but could actually avoid what NY went through. But maybe that wouldn't have made a difference anyway. The virus is gonna do what it's gonna do, regardless.
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Shinier than a speeding bullet.
I personally think Florida will be fine but AZ may not - AZ looks to be in some serious shit at the moment. FL just needed to make a minor "flair" adjustment and they will get it back under control as long as they isolate their elderly from visitors.
I modeled the virus and I was doing a great job with predicting deaths until mid-April. Where I f*cked up is the R0 variable - it was even worse than I predicted and it appears to be 2.5 - a nasty virus.
Also makes me wonder what countries (ie, size, type of government, general national psychology [ie, willingness to comply]) will deal with the virus best.
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Shinier than a speeding bullet.
Still 30%-60%. They showed that 40% of people who had certain colds had immunity to coronavirus. Meaning, illness they got in the past provided immunity for SARS-CoV-2. This has a name but I forget. Crossimmunity? Can't remember.
Based on data I saw from Netherlands, we go through a coronavirus season, every season. So every year.
KMC Community Forums
Jul 6th, 2020 02:13 PM
has it?
