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In a subway tunnel.

Ooh, I was going to say Torch every time unless he gets pretty dumb and swoops in when he doesn't have to, but the location makes it closer...

It depends on how fast he turns up the heat. He can make it too hot for her, and I'm pretty sure he's safe from her beam attacks (which are heat/light based), but her blade material can take a lot of heat and thus get to him.

Hm, hard to give a percentage because it depends on tactics. If he's fighting serious and doesn't let up, he can still have a pretty solid win. If he fights to not risk killing her, maybe 6/4 for her. If he's cocky, even more.