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MCU versions of both.

Round 1: Pure h2h fight
Round 2: Fight in an abandoned factory. Both carry as much guns, ammunition and knives as they want but no explosives or body armor.

Who wins?

Punisher stomps in round one.

Bullseye in round two.

I dont think Punisher stomps round 1. If he wins its with great difficulty, like it was for Matt, who was better than Frank in h2h.

That said I doubt Matt was at peak condition through most of Season 3.

Matt was still able to fodderize multiple FBI SWAT guys in full gear towards the end of the show, and Dex was still able to give him issues. Meanwhile, Frank had issues with Carson Wolf in H2H in his own show, a single Homeland Security agent. Now, I am going to give the benefit of the doubt to Wolf and assume being high-ranking Homeland officer means H2H training and experience, but still, not a great showing for Frank. He had some great weapon feats in his show, but his H2H went down from DD s2 IMO.

I do think Frank wins in h2h, but more from his ferocity and tenacity than any skill advantage and it won't be easy.