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The mutants have had enough. From their base on Mars (now Arakko), they have declared war on Earth.

Mutants of Krakoa, and of Arakko are united under the Council. All out war.

Earth is allowed to call on some favours, such as Surfer, but not other civilisations such as the Shi-Ar - it is an internal matter, as far as they're concerned (secretly, they wish to move in at the end and mop up the remains).

Thor will join in, but not the 9 realms. Certain 'hero' units may come to Earth's aid, such as BRB, but this will be rare.

Wakanda and Latveria will fight for Earth, but Atlantis (under Namor) will be neutral.

Mankind's greatest fear has come to pass. Will Homo Superior prevail? Or will the dirty mutants be finally taught their place?

The TP will be a major problem for Marvel Earth, given many of the hero population can be turned to mutants' side using it.

Is there a time-limit until they invade, or it's a "we're about to invade" message and then it starts?

This comes down to whether or not Franklin Richards still has his powers, and if Marvel Earth has enough time to prepare their psychic defenses.

Xavier has already shown he could casually mind rape Reed... all that needs to happen is for one of the mutant psychics to implant illusions and suggestions into Reed's mind, have him walk over to his gadgets, and have him whip up something to wipe out any resistance on Earth.

Scenario 1 possibly ends with Doom stealing everybody's power, while Reed stands there jealous with a random gadget.

In scenario 2 I'd probably lean towards mutants.

In Scenario 1, not sure how Marvel Earth could possibly win against a Rogue (and/or Hope) who has been fully stacked with mutant powers.

She would know what the Marvel Earth has in store for her in advance, due to Destiny's powers. She'd be non-detectable, due to ForgetMeNot's power (and power-stealing devices and such might not even target her). She'd have Forge's and Madison Jeffries' powers to build whatever she needs, and due to Destiny's and Quicksilver's powers she'd know exactly what she'd need and she'd have the time to build it. Once the combat starts, she could use Kitty's, Jamie Madrox's, Nightcrawler's and Magik's powers in combination with Pietro's to quickly cover the entire world the moment the fight starts, and absorb all opposition.