Worthy Tournament - Odds Thread

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Damborgson
Place your bets folks.

https://static0.cbrimages.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/thor-secret-wars-cover-mjolnir.jpg

DarkSaint85
Lol that's the only reason why you wanted this tourney!!

I am as always, the underdog. Loki is the source of my powers, and Surfer is Surfer.

Digi
If the baseline is 7/1...

Bentley: 21/1 - seemingly a horrible matchup, but if this were an actual betting line, I'd happily put some cash on Bentley with the potential payout, given Kang's sneakiness.
DS: 18/1 - While Creel is an excellent draft, this is another matchup issue as DS states above me. However, two out of three combatants will escape this match, so a slipup by either could vault DS into not just better odds, but competitive odds with anyone.
LoB: 14/1 - He'll be the favorite in Round 1 because of the matchup, but it's LoB. If he takes his meds and comes with his A-game, he'll be more difficult to beat. If the poodle-rage takes over and he's reduced to red text, though, anything is possible. This is like the team with the talent to beat anyone, but inconsistency mars their record.
Beatboks: 8/1 - Id and Boks both have solid drafts and plenty of debating chops. Slight edge to Id for having been to the winner's circle before in these things.
Id: 6/1 - See above.
Leo/Supermutant: 4/1 - The statistically easiest R1 matchup (along with DS) since 66% of the entrants will get to round two. Backed with one of the high herald standard bearers (Surfer) and oodles of tourney experience (Leo).

leonidas
laughing out loud

nice.

"Id"
Imagine if this could be done interactive and actual bets could be placed?

"Id"
I hoped Leos Loki would match up against Beats Hellstrom

Digi
Originally posted by "Id"
Imagine if this could be done interactive and actual bets could be placed?

If I weren't judging and this were true, I'd throw some money at Bentley on the off chance that LoB rage-fails and/or Kang has a massively interesting plan. Also probably Supermutant just from the combo of the safest draft and favorable R1 matchup. Literally every pick is reasonable and powerful as hell, so I don't see an obvious "avoid" candidate.

"Id"
Odds
Leo vs supermutant vs DS: I got Leo. Old man is crafty and we gave have him extra take to draft and feed him after midnight which is a a big no no

Bentley vs LoB: I got LoB.

Id vs Beats: I can take him. I give myself all the best odds. Come at bro!

One Big Mob
Why would you not make a poll? Dambo is dropping the ball left and right here.

Damborgson
https://i.imgur.com/HikzcqA.jpg

Me by the end of all this.


Also, I'm looking forward to seeing Hellstrom and Loki in action. The bigger wildcards in my opinion.

DarkSaint85
I see for sheer entertainment value I should've stuck to Krypto.

IF I get through, I will use him thumb up Mungi can judge.

"Id"
Everyone save Damborgson a headache and submit your write ups through http://text-share.com. Believe me this forum is pure ass when it comes to quote copy paste.

Digi
Nobody using my well thought out odds to place bets...

sad

DarkSaint85
I bet on myself, because despite being the underdog in my match, and despite drawing attention to myself, I'd like to think my debating will carry me through despite having a relatively weaker character.

LoB and Id to win their matches. Supermutant is the other from my match, just because it's Surfer....

Digi
Originally posted by DarkSaint85
I bet on myself, because despite being the underdog in my match, and despite drawing attention to myself, I'd like to think my debating will carry me through despite having a relatively weaker character.

LoB and Id to win their matches. Supermutant is the other from my match, just because it's Surfer....

I don't think Creel is weaker, given that Mjolnir is in the match. But you're maybe perceiving it compared to your banned drafts, which were indeed more powerful. When I was going to participate, he was among those I considered. And despite Loki's creation of Absorbing Man, I'm not sure he can reverse it. So it's likely more narrative than functional. So you may be right that your odds are higher than they should be in my list up there.

leonidas
lol

i think i'll manage to come up with something functional in my match--i don't have to be the bestest, just can't be the worstest. i'm holding out for bentley in his match. i got the faith mon ami! id's match could be the closest call but i've always been a fan of the shaman so i'll stick with him.

DarkSaint85
Originally posted by leonidas
lol

i think i'll manage to come up with something functional in my match--i don't have to be the bestest, just can't be the worstest. i'm holding out for bentley in his match. i got the faith mon ami! id's match could be the closest call but i've always been a fan of the shaman so i'll stick with him.

Basically is supermutant our agreed top dog lol

leonidas
well, i mean surfer IS surfer. only reason i didn't take him was because i thought it would be too easy to win with him. i mean, anyone who has surfer and DOESN'T win should probably retire their kmc membership and hide forever in shame....

heh

shifty

Digi
Technically, iirc, Thor and Hawkeye are the most decorated draftees in KMC tourney history (three wins each), though my old stats thread hasn't been fully updated for recent stuff. Regardless, Damborg did a nice job leveling the playing field. Clearly anyone who took Odinson would waltz to a victory, so taking him out of the equation was the only fair choice.

yes

Supermutant
Digi odds makes a lot of sense. With the right plan anyone can win. Even weak Loki with Thor' s power and hammer combine with his magic. Yea SS is vastly more powerful than Loki, remember that judges.

leonidas
shifty

Damborgson
Excellent start to the tournament

leonidas
whoa, eager beavers.... i wanted to ask--i assume we start in random locations inside the BF, as is standard? so we are literally on the opposite sides of the BF from each other...?

"Id"
I can only invest one day out of the week for these things.

Damborgson
Originally posted by leonidas
whoa, eager beavers.... i wanted to ask--i assume we start in random locations inside the BF, as is standard? so we are literally on the opposite sides of the BF from each other...?

.5 kilometers away from each other, yes thumb up

leonidas
oh, only half a km? figured we'd be scattered across the BF which i thought was about the size of earth...

Damborgson
It is! Gives you plenty of room to move and whatnot, but I'm just going with the standard starting distance, even with the 3 way match.

"Id"

DarkSaint85
Standard forum rules are fine.

leonidas
thumb up

leonidas
i ****** hate single post events.... lol no chance to rebut is sooooo frustrating. otoh i guess the match is set to be judged and i'm ok with that. thumb up

leonidas
btw where the eff is lob/bentley??

LordofBrooklyn
Originally posted by leonidas
btw where the eff is lob/bentley??

The BENT, BAGUETTE, BENTLEY, fears me!!!

LordofBrooklyn
Originally posted by leonidas
i ****** hate single post events.... lol no chance to rebut is sooooo frustrating. otoh i guess the match is set to be judged and i'm ok with that. thumb up

My judgement!

ALL 3 OF YOU LOSE TO THE MIGHTY LOB!!!

Badabing
LOB is from Brooklyn, Ohio.

LordofBrooklyn
Originally posted by Badabing
LOB is from Brooklyn, Ohio.

I WILL SILENCE YOUR WHORE MOUTH BEFORE THIS YEAR ENDS!!!

Supermutant
I motion that on KMC henceforth and forever more the acronym LOB shall stand for Loser Of Battlezones!!!

On a unrelated note I'm surprised Shaman Nate didn't receive any consideration to be ban. As he is quite possibly the most powerful one in the tourney. Interesting.

leonidas
most people view him around the same level as god cable--a justifiable position. and cable was definitely below ss but he was a good choice, no doubt. one of my personal faves as well.

LordofBrooklyn
Originally posted by Supermutant
I motion that on KMC henceforth and forever more the acronym LOB shall stand for Loser Of Battlezones!!!

MOTION DENIED PEASANT!!!

Supermutant
Originally posted by leonidas
most people view him around the same level as god cable--a justifiable position. and cable was definitely below ss but he was a good choice, no doubt. one of my personal faves as well.

Shaman Nate is a worthy inclusion. Imo some who were ban would have a tough time with him. Also Dr Strange vs Loki could go either way.

leonidas
maybe and maybe. i never had a problem with strange being in though. it's his prepped feats that tend to get all the talk but i've long been of the opinion that strange himself is pretty overrated in general. /shrug

Badabing
Originally posted by Supermutant
I motion that on KMC henceforth and forever more the acronym LOB shall stand for Loser Of Battlezones!!! So it shall be written. So it shall be done.

http://orig14.deviantart.net/38b5/f/2009/122/f/6/raptor_moses_by_jxc1013.jpg

Bentley
I'm sending my write up tomorrow, I'm missing two scans and I'm too lazy to rush and get them at this time. Everything else is pretty much covered.

beatboks
I will try and send in my closing tomorrow night. I'm on a cruise in Vanuatu/ New Caledonia and while I purchased a wifi pack the speed is shite.

beatboks
Originally posted by leonidas
maybe and maybe. i never had a problem with strange being in though. it's his prepped feats that tend to get all the talk but i've long been of the opinion that strange himself is pretty overrated in general. /shrug

For the most part I agree except that it was stated to be classic Strange and that version has enough feats to validate auto shields that are pretty hard for most on this level to crack. Imagine adding a Mjilnor amp to those auto shields??

Most opening attacks wouldnt do shite, allowing Strange as long as he needs to use the eye to best know how to use Mjilnor to its utmost.

Most others here have to make a conscious effort to shield, and most dont have shields on that level (those that come close take a lot longer to be of effective use straight out of the gate).

Cant speak for others but that was the issue I had.

leonidas
so what does everyone think of the matches so far? without sounding too confident, i sort of like my chances of getting out of my match though i'm not entirely sure who i think will make out with the other spot. there are some clear problems with one post in particular, imo, but we'll see what the judges think i guess.

bentley and lob is surprisingly (to some, not to this bentley fanboy) complicated. personally, i think i'd have bentley ahead on points at the moment....

id and beats? knowing one post still remains, i def feel one of them has a distinct edge in the match atm....

there have also been a couple pretty nicely played plans laid out by a couple people. gotta say (without commenting on whether i think it would work or not) id's idea of making hellstrom unworthy is an excellent and very unique strat. not sure i'm smart enough to understand all of bentley's but i like the overall premise of what he's going for and even ds twisted the obvious ploy of turning to uru by making use of the ultron scan. not sure what judges will make of these plans (and i'll keep my own thoughts on how well or poorly i think each would work) but points at least for being creative gents.

anyone have a fave plan? no commenting on whether you think it would work (or worse posting PROOF to support your belief) because we don't want to sway judges or make arguments for competitors, but any plan you just really thought was pretty creative and totally unexpected?

One Big Mob
I knew exactly what DS was going to do and I think someone even posted it exactly (though not in response to him I think, just if Jane got two hammers).

Huge fan. Even bigger fan of him abusing the no response rule too.

I have a new favorite in the tourney. I want to see just how much of a bastard he becomes if he moves forward.

His post is the only one I read out of that thread though. Him Bentley and LoB. The others were just snippets so I can't comment on them.

DarkSaint85
No response rule?

"Id"
Originally posted by leonidas


id and beats? knowing one post still remains, i def feel one of them has a distinct edge in the match atm....



What you see is what you get. Our match is finished.

leonidas
pretty entertaining i thought. thumb up

leonidas
damn lob, trying to read your match is a total pain in the a$$... use bigger scans next time. judges love it when you make their job harder.

LordofBrooklyn
Originally posted by leonidas
damn lob, trying to read your match is a total pain in the a$$... use bigger scans next time. judges love it when you make their job harder.

READING THE WORK OF THE LORDOFTHEBATTLEZONES IS WORTH IT!!!!

leonidas
laughing out loud

true. i'm even taking notes.
thumb up

"Id"
Tournament is getting tighter. Waiting for the LoB vs Bently match. But so far

Super Mutant - Surfer
Leo - Loki
Id - Nate

Are going to be a fierce next round.

Damborgson
Agreed. This is good. Before I randomize I'll also give you all the opportunity to steal a defeated opponents pick should you wish to!

leonidas
just wanted to let everyone involved know that this week and weekend are good for me, but most of the following 2 weeks posting will be very challenging for me. i'll effectively be out of town from the 18th until the start of may. there will be some days in there where i might be able to sneak in a post, but for the most part posting will be effectively impossible. if that sounds like it will be a problem for anyone, ds can take my spot so that i don't throw things completely out of whack for everyone else. figured i better let you all know now so you can make a decision about how to proceed.

LordofBrooklyn
Originally posted by leonidas
just wanted to let everyone involved know that this week and weekend are good for me, but most of the following 2 weeks posting will be very challenging for me. i'll effectively be out of town from the 18th until the start of may. there will be some days in there where i might be able to sneak in a post, but for the most part posting will be effectively impossible. if that sounds like it will be a problem for anyone, ds can take my spot so that i don't throw things completely out of whack for everyone else. figured i better let you all know now so you can make a decision about how to proceed.

TRANSLATION....

I FEAR THE MIGHTY LOB!!!!

Damborgson
Originally posted by leonidas
just wanted to let everyone involved know that this week and weekend are good for me, but most of the following 2 weeks posting will be very challenging for me. i'll effectively be out of town from the 18th until the start of may. there will be some days in there where i might be able to sneak in a post, but for the most part posting will be effectively impossible. if that sounds like it will be a problem for anyone, ds can take my spot so that i don't throw things completely out of whack for everyone else. figured i better let you all know now so you can make a decision about how to proceed.

You're good my friend, shouldn't take longer than 2 weeks to finish up your match thumb up

LordofBrooklyn
LEONIDAS, I ACCEPT YOUR CONCESSION!!!

"Id"
Ok so we got our final 4 in.

LoB - Cyborg Supes.
Leo - Loki.
Super M - Silver Surfer
Id- Shaman X-Man

Um...so from a drafting point of view. This shit is fiercely competitive.


But the matchups are interesting.

LoB vs Loki: The result Shenanigans, some way in some form LoB will pull a scan of a Prego whopping on Loki. laughing

Id vs Super M: I am doing all the exposing *unzips.

Digi
Originally posted by "Id"
Ok so we got our final 4 in.

LoB - Cyborg Supes.
Leo - Loki.
Super M - Silver Surfer
Id- Shaman X-Man

Um...so from a drafting point of view. This shit is fiercely competitive.


But the matchups are interesting.

LoB vs Loki: The result Shenanigans, some way in some form LoB will pull a scan of a Prego whopping on Loki. laughing

Id vs Super M: I am doing all the exposing *unzips.

thumb up

With the start point of 4:1 odds for all combatants, I see no reason to alter Surfer or Nate's odds. Both of you know your sh*t and have good drafts. Leo's still the 2nd most prolific tourney participant in KMC history, so LoB is the underdog (pun intended) but has the beast that is Cyborg Supes. 6:1, 3:1 adjustments for them, respectively, would probably approximate a Vegas line, if they were to be made.

Bentley
I'm up for judging future matches.

Damborgson
The one good thing that came out of this thumb up

"Id"
LoB - Cyborg Supes.
Leo - Loki.
Super M - Silver Surfer
Id- Shaman X-Man

I still find it hilarious that the final 4 comes down to 4 completely distinctive characters who are often portrayed as the pinnacle of their respective category.

Smurph
On reflection, I'm thinking Dr Doom would have been an awesome pick.

Definitely the best odds of any herald character actually being able to absorb/become the mother storm.

leonidas
pretty sure that doom wouldn't have been given access to mother storm powers because he is not a 'thunder god' by tourney standards, but....i could be wrong. /shrug

Digi
Doom still would have been an insanely tough out; definitely on par with the remaining four. But as it is, I don't think anyone's kicking themselves for not switching picks or drafting someone else.

leonidas
oh yeah--doom was someone i considered for a little bit then....just stopped thinking about for no real reason at all. lol i was lured by the irony of loki using the hammer methinks. but yeah, he'd have been deadly in this.

Digi
The number of times Loki has interacted with the hammer makes him underrated here, giving him feats no one else has access to. Doom may have also been a liability against Henshaw. It's hard to hack his armor, but no one's more hax in that department than Cyborg Supes. Might be a blessing neither of you selected Doom.

"Id"
Real life responsibilities blows. Feel this is the last time I participate in a tournament.

"Id"

Digi
As much because of the strength of his past record than Loki alone. And Supermutant had the same odds. If I were looking at drafts alone, Surfer would probably be 1, Nate 2, Loki/Henshaw 3, though the gap between any of them is small.

But the comment was made in the context of the current discussion about Doom, who gets top billing (in the comics) more often than Loki. My underrated comment was mostly just making that comparison. I'd personally rather have Loki due to the circumstances of the tourney, but Doom would often be my preference in other formats.

Digi
Oh, their odds were also lower because they had the 3-way first round matchup, so all three were statistically more likely to advance by a significant margin. It's likely the odds gap would have disappeared with default 1-v-1 matches in R1.

Id with the fake news up there...smh

leonidas
laughing out loud

bada won't be pleased with you stealing his schtick.

Digi
Meh, the Raptor and I are on good terms. I can borrow schticks from time to time.

uhuh

"Id"
I feel like the next reference coming out of digi is labeling members as crooked-Leo.

Which is totally fine and fair when he speaks of Leo.

Digi
I feel you with the commitment to these things, Id. I hopped out of this one when I realized it wasn't a one-match free-for-all. My days in full scale tourneys are almost certainly over.

Originally posted by "Id"
I feel like the next reference coming out of digi is labeling members as crooked-Leo.

Which is totally fine and fair when he speaks of Leo.

thumb up

I'm always Fair and Balanced. Crooked Leo can't get any brownie points with his transparent pandering.

"Id"

Digi
@Id (can't quote) - Yeahhh. I don't "miss" those days, per se, but they were great at the time. As a college kid (and eventually post-grad) with way too much free time, it was a wonderful clusterf*ck. But if those happened today, I would neither enter nor judge.

One time I commandeered...I think it was a massive, space-faring Gundam ship, that had planet destroying capabilities and advanced mechs in the hangars. Whoever I drafted was entirely pointless (it was a high meta tourney, iirc). My entire strategy was due to the battlefield. I knew f*ck all about Gundam, and spent about a week researching and asking questions on Gundam message boards just to pull that nonsense.

leonidas
Originally posted by Digi
I feel you with the commitment to these things, Id. I hopped out of this one when I realized it wasn't a one-match free-for-all. My days in full scale tourneys are almost certainly over.



thumb up

I'm always Fair and Balanced. Crooked Leo can't get any brownie points with his transparent pandering.

Transparent. Pfft. My pandering is extremely sly. sneer

leonidas
this can probably be unpinned.... confused

LordofBrooklyn
NO!!!

LET EVERYONE BEAR WITNESS TO THE ROBBERY THAT TOOK PLACE!!!

The Nuul
Just watched dr strange and really liked the film. Haven't seen iw yet. Why didnt strange use a time spell in iw like he did vs dormammu?

The Nuul
Oh wrong thread. .. oops

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