i think ushgarak is right at the difinitive point of the discussion. obi-wan wants there not to be a reply, probably, because it can be traced. but to call maul's arrival lucky, may not be so accurate. the reason they go to tatooine, is bred out of mechanical necessity, which from a combat perspective, may easily have been understood by their enemies. then qui-gon suggests that particular location based on logical thinking, which their enemies are certainly not without. now take into account jedi and sith's abilities to sense one another (a-la vader and obi-wan in ANH), and i think everyone here doesn't find the situation all that unbelievable. unless of course you're all about to destroy my thoughts piece by piece. looking forward to either.
That is fair enough except for two things:
1. It's believable, but again we shouldn't HAVE to come up with a believable explanation ourselves; it should have been made clear in the script.
2. In the Coruscant scene with Maul and Sidious, Maul clearly refers to a 'trace', so it wasn't just good guesswork.
Well, when he says 'trace', he could be referring to any number of techno (or even Sith-like) means via which he tracked the Queen's ship.
But it was still a cock-up because how Maul found the ship was NOT MADE CLEAR and it should have been. If someone answered the distress call, it should have been shown.