I don't know. It looks like "A Beatiful Mind" is the movie to beat this year. It's gotten the best reviews (that I've seen, anyway). Ron Howard has gotten the shaft at the Oscars in the past.
So, that is the only one I'm certain will get a nomination. That only leaves four open slots for the Oscars. I need to see it. But, my gut tells me Fellowship won't get nominated. That doesn't mean it's not a great movie.
My movie "Riding in Cars with Boys" didn't even get a nomination for comedy Golden Globe, so it is very unlikely it will get an Oscar nomination. I still think Steven Zahn will get nominated for Best Supporting Actor.