The Drake Equation
The Drake Equation is a well-known attempt to attack this question. It estimates how many alien races exist by multiplying together the incidence of various relevant factors. For my purposes here, let me offer a similar equation, alterred for reasons which I hope to make clear in a moment. (The algebra here is not very complicated, but if it puts you off, just skim through it -- you don't have to follow the calculation to understand the conclusion.)My Equation
N = s * p * t * l
where:("*" indicates multiply -- a typical convention in programming.)
"N" is the number of alien races with sufficient technology to communicate with us, if not physically travel to our planet.
"s" is the number of stars in the galaxy.
"p" is the average number of planets orbiting each star which are suitable for intelligent life. Note that this number might be less than 1, if most stars do not have such planets.
"t" is the percentage of these planets on which aliens achieve a sufficient level of technology to communicate with us in a given period of time. A planet on which there is no intelligent life, never was and never will be, will contribute zero to this number. A planet on which there is intelligent life will contribute an amount dependent on how long it takes that intelligence to reach the specified level of technology. If some civilizations destroy themselves and then rebuild, their numerator in this calculation would be more than one, but see the next parameter.
"l" is the average length of time, in units of the time period used for "t", that such a technological civilization survives.
We have at least ball-park estimates of "s": I've seen a low of 40 billion and a high of 1 trillion. Let's take 100 billion as a working guess.
Unfortunately, values for the rest of the parameters in this equation range from debatable to outright guesses. For example, "p". In terms of empirical evidence, we of course know that the Earth is suitable for intelligent life. (Pause here for the jokes about whether or not there is really intelligent life on Earth ...) Arguably Mars could support some sort of intelligent life. And that's all we know of in the entire universe: maybe two. There is some indirect evidence of a large planet orbiting Barnard's Star. (Maybe it's more solid by now, or similar evidence has been found for other stars. I haven't kept up on this.) Even if that holds up, that was a super-Jovian planet, not likely to be suitable for intelligent life. It's possible that the average star out there has several habitable planets circling it. It's also possible that our Solar System is the only such in the universe. We just don't know.
So here is my contribution to the discussion: Using an equation such as the above, an evolutionist has far more reason to doubt the existence of aliens than a creationist. Let me explain.
I believe that aliens DO exist. But question is, what if WE make contact first with another planet? What if, after million years or so our technology is so good taht we can travel between lightyears with ease? And what if we found an species that is in same point that we are now? That would probably be cavemen to us. 😂
Originally posted by Fire
I doubt there is no other race (or races) in the universe, but I seriously doubt we will ever meet them in the next 200 years
You see the proablility of meeting them at any specific moment is very low😄
However, the probability of some kind of contact eveidence of alien life, allbeit a micro-organism is very high.
But thats not the question at the start of this thread😄
The Drake Equation
The Drake Equation is a well-known attempt to attack this question. It estimates how many alien races exist by multiplying together the incidence of various relevant factors. For my purposes here, let me offer a similar equation, alterred for reasons which I hope to make clear in a moment. (The algebra here is not very complicated, but if it puts you off, just skim through it -- you don't have to follow the calculation to understand the conclusion.)My Equation
N = s * p * t * l
where:("*" indicates multiply -- a typical convention in programming.)
"N" is the number of alien races with sufficient technology to communicate with us, if not physically travel to our planet.
"s" is the number of stars in the galaxy.
"p" is the average number of planets orbiting each star which are suitable for intelligent life. Note that this number might be less than 1, if most stars do not have such planets.
"t" is the percentage of these planets on which aliens achieve a sufficient level of technology to communicate with us in a given period of time. A planet on which there is no intelligent life, never was and never will be, will contribute zero to this number. A planet on which there is intelligent life will contribute an amount dependent on how long it takes that intelligence to reach the specified level of technology. If some civilizations destroy themselves and then rebuild, their numerator in this calculation would be more than one, but see the next parameter.
"l" is the average length of time, in units of the time period used for "t", that such a technological civilization survives.
We have at least ball-park estimates of "s": I've seen a low of 40 billion and a high of 1 trillion. Let's take 100 billion as a working guess.
Unfortunately, values for the rest of the parameters in this equation range from debatable to outright guesses. For example, "p". In terms of empirical evidence, we of course know that the Earth is suitable for intelligent life. (Pause here for the jokes about whether or not there is really intelligent life on Earth ...) Arguably Mars could support some sort of intelligent life. And that's all we know of in the entire universe: maybe two. There is some indirect evidence of a large planet orbiting Barnard's Star. (Maybe it's more solid by now, or similar evidence has been found for other stars. I haven't kept up on this.) Even if that holds up, that was a super-Jovian planet, not likely to be suitable for intelligent life. It's possible that the average star out there has several habitable planets circling it. It's also possible that our Solar System is the only such in the universe. We just don't know.
So here is my contribution to the discussion: Using an equation such as the above, an evolutionist has far more reason to doubt the existence of aliens than a creationist. Let me explain.
please explain what makes a planet "suitable" for intelligent life. We only know of one form of intelligent life in the universe, ourselves.......and even then the basic requirements are the same for non-intelligent life on the same planet.
what are the requirements?
That is all a bunch of rubbish. There are no requirements that we know of. The only life we know of is carbon based and depends on water. That is the only life we know of because we've only been on one planet.......to observe what life on that particular planet needs to survive, what evolution on that planet has centered life around.
It's very possible that Earth is unique and the life on it. It's entirely possible that we are the odd man out. There could be trillions upon trillions of lifeforms in our universe that couldn't survive on Earth......and are not even carbon based.
of course aliens exist. think about it:
people like to think the universe started at the big bang millions of years ago. for all you know, there have been billions upon googaplexes of big bangs, the universe always sucking itself in, exploding, blah blah blah. and about the whole "humans are special, made in gods image" thing, wasnt there life on earth long before humans? doesnt that mean life on other planets is completely possible? if you arent a brainwashed religious follower this question isnt even an issue. if our one sun has 9 or even more planets circling around it, and there are billions of stars that we know of, its freakin obvious. thats only in the eyes of what humans know. humans have only seen an infinitecimal piece of the universe. nothing is special, especially not humans. the universe wont care when theyre gone.
arse
Originally posted by gls
oh and if earth was created in 6 days then dinosaurs could never of existed...
thats what i've heard from really religious friends...i do think dinos existed. i can't wait till someone accidently finds one still preserved or alive. that would jus question peoples faith.
i believe that with all the space out there..there has got to be some other beings other than humans around. otherwise, it would really suck talking only to humans for all time. lol
Dinosaurs were mentioned in the bible. As for aliens, I do believe they exist. I do not believe that we have made contact with them, since they are logically distant from us. They are so far away, that they do not affect life as we know it, and so there is NO point in talking about it.
Re: What if Aliens exist?
Originally posted by Sir Whirlysplat
what would it mean, to any religion that has at it's core that *a* god(s) created Earth / Life on Earth (with no reference to other planets) and the whole "we are special" thing, if life on other planets is found?doesn't it make "Genesis", for one, ... um... wrong?
How would it make Genesis wrong? Genesis deals with the Earth and its inhabitants, not what is out in the universe. It would not debunk God for me at all. In fact it says God created the universe, that would mean He created whatever is out there.