I think Exodus has tk sheilding that would prevent her from using matter manipulation on him...During the "Bloodlines" crossover he covered the entire nation of Genosha under a TK dome which none of the heroes could penetrate. He did this while fighting off the combined efforts of both the X-men and Avengers, including punking Sers (telekenetically holding her in mid-air I beleive). And if the feat isn't already enough, he caused the dome to slowly shrink while all of this was going on.
based off their encounters, i'd give a slight edge to exodus, but again, this is a very difficult fight. seems his shields are proof against her transmutation powers. she has cosmic energy to call on but he likely has the edge in tk/tp imo--at least in terms of skill if not raw power. need to e pretty versatile to deal with sersi, and exodus certainly is.