Originally posted by RagingBonerShun the non-believer.
Not a big fan of the show, tbh.
Six months later, here we are. Right back where we started.
The most-hyped opening day game in years featured Miami visiting Boston in a showdown of teams expected to be the East's two titans this season. And while the Chicago Bulls raced past both in the regular-season standings, it does little to dim the luster of this Eastern Conference semifinal series.
Each team entered the season with championship-or-bust aspirations. Each has an opportunity to reverse a mildly disappointing regular season with a landmark playoff win. Each will face pointed questions if it fails to do so.
The laser beam burns particularly hot for the Heat. Partly this is self-inflicted -- they're the only team to have already held a championship parade -- and partly it's a reaction to the poor taste left in everyone's mouth by "The Decision."
But mostly, it's because they were the most anticipated team since the 1995-96 Bulls and produced only the league's third-best record. While Miami led the league in scoring differential, there were some notable hiccups along the way -- a 9-8 start, a five-game losing streak in March, and a profound inability to convert last-second shots.
I'm picking the Heat anyway, as you've no doubt seen from our series page, and I'm picking them in five games because the home-court-advantage team often closes things out that quickly even in series that are relatively even. (Witness Bulls-Pacers and Thunder-Nuggets in Round 1, for instance.)
There are misgivings here. For starters, Boston won three of the four meetings in the regular season. While, historically, regular-season matchups are virtually useless in predicting series after the first round, the Celtics' defense seems to profoundly frustrate LeBron James in particular. The same Boston team limited him enough to defeat Cleveland in six games last spring, and the Chicago defense -- which has the same principles and tactics, given that current Bulls coach Tim Thibodeau is the mastermind behind both -- had similar success against James this season.
As a result, James will be the spotlight player. ESPN.com's Brian Windhorst isn't exaggerating when he says this is the most important series of James' career.
In particular, Boston's knack for loading up on the strong side is the ultimate test for James' playing style. As great as he is, he doesn't like to make quick decisions coming off pick-and-rolls, with his renowned frustrating habit of retreating to half court after getting a switch, making it particularly easy for defenses to adjust. He seemed to ditch that habit as this season went on, but if he reverts to running the pick-and-retreat play against Boston, the Heat are dead.
ESPN's research department also notes that Paul Pierce has been very effective defending James. Miami averaged only 81 points per possession when Pierce checked James, compared to 102 when anybody else did; James' own scoring rate was similarly affected.
But the irony here is that the real focus should be on Wade. For some reason nobody is talking about this, but Wade was absolutely, positively awful in the four games against the Celtics. Just horrendous. Despite having the easier defender to attack (Ray Allen is not in Paul Pierce's league on that end) Wade shot 28.1 percent against Boston and averaged only 12.8 points; he also committed 21 turnovers in the four games. That's some amazingly bad play for a guy who was third in the league in PER overall.
Here's one stat you won't see me worry about, however: 1-for-19. That's the Heat's shooting mark in the last 10 seconds when they were tied or within one possession this season.
That sounds terrible, right? Except the stat comes with no context. This isn't a situation where teams shoot 50 percent; the league average, as Tom Haberstroh noted, is 25.7 percent. In other words, most other clubs are nearly as bad.
Take Boston, for instance. You know what they're shooting in those exact same situations this season?
Two-for-14.
Chokers.
As for James, his career shooting mark in such situations is 26.0 percent, which is right about what you'd expect. The Heat's struggles on these shots have become a big deal nationally, but empirically, it's not a big deal.
But the bigger reason to like the Heat in this series is because I'm not sure they're going to have any chances to go 1-for-20. For the first 47:50, they look like the much better team.
For starters, over the final quarter of the season, the Heat played much, much better than Boston did. Boston went only 16-12 after trading Kendrick Perkins (or, if you prefer, after trading Luke Harangody). While some of that might be traced to the absence of Perk's toughness, there were deeper issues exposed in that stretch -- most notably, that the Celtics' bench is killing them.
Miami, meanwhile, was 17-9, even with a five-game losing streak thrown in, and beat the Celtics senseless in the one head-to-head meeting in that stretch. While Boston looks weaker as a result of its midseason moves, the Heat are a bit stronger after adding Mike Bibby off the waiver wire. (Side note from a veteran Bibby watcher -- Rajon Rondo is one of the few point guards he can defend halfway decently, because he can play so far off him.)
That said, we still have some wild cards to consider. First, Boston played horribly at the end of the regular season last year, too, and still won the Eastern Conference. I don't see these events as necessarily connected -- historically, you're better off playing well entering the postseason -- but it warrants mentioning.
Second, there's a mammoth wild card named Shaquille O'Neal. I don't expect him to play in this series, let alone to play well, but if he does he changes the equation considerably. Boston was 28-9 when the Big Leprechaun played and 28-17 when he didn't. Offensively, in particular, he makes a huge difference. Shaq shot 66.7 percent, and Boston averaged 9.98 points per 100 possessions more with him on the court.
Moreover, Shaq snaps the rest of Boston's rotation into place. Jermaine O'Neal and Glen Davis return to their normal roles as backup center and backup power forward, respectively. Jeff Green becomes a full-time wing just like Boston's brass had intended when they traded for him. And with a fifth star-caliber starter, the Celtics can offer a lot more lineup combos with multiple go-to guys.
That's crucial when you look at Boston's lineup combinations this year. Basically, playing Rajon Rondo, Ray Allen, Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett together produces a massively positive plus/minus for the Celtics, regardless of who the fifth player is. The same applies for Shaq and any three of the others.
All of which would be a good reason to pick Boston if this series were being played in December. But it isn't. The Heat are the better team right now and, barring a Lazarus act from Shaq, figure to be better over the next two weeks, as well.