The thing that makes this a good match imho is the fact that they have a week of prep and start at a considerable distance from one another.
since frank and wolv are fairly familiar with eachother, they will know the general capabilities and powersets of their opponent. This is THE benefit that allows punisher even a chance in the fight.
He would know, straight away, that small explosions, bullets, grenades, all those typical weapons are going to be almost useless against wolverine. So he has a week to plan something "outside of the box" to take out wolverine. Encasing him in cement might work 😛
Wolverine also has this week, but he is not known for his tacticle abilities in the way that punisher is. Sure, he could track down the punisher by beating up people in bars (ala wolv 43) but in all seriousness, he is going to have no way of tracking frank when they start from opposite ends of the city (smell doesnt work like that, for the simple principals of diffusion).
Frank's only palpable chance of winning is avoiding the conflict that most peolpe agree wolverine would win anyways. Setting pheremone based traps, sweating into a shirt then leaving it somewhere, the ideal red-herring for dealing with wolverine.
Then, a simple electricity trap, that can be detonated by remote from a charcoal ventilated room in a complete other building
not an exciting read, but this scenario plays right into punisher's hands.
Since its questionable what types of weapons/traps Frank might lay, and wolverine is very tough to put down, id say its split 50/50, but even that is probably underestimating the punisher given teh scenario.