fantasy definitely takes a lot of luck in fact people who know a lot tend to shoot themselves in the foot by making too logical of a choice looking at matchups and all that instead of just stickin with the best player. I played in 2 leagues last year, it was my first time ever doing it I managed to win both. This year im not doing nearly as good. I garuntee I know more about football than a lot of my friends im in leagues with but you just cant predict whos gonna breakout every week. In fact theres a guy in 1 league who has yet to do a single thing since the draft and hes in second place.
The biggest advantage "knowledgable" fantasy players have is during the draft I think and then on staying on top of the season and finding nice pickups because of injuries and such.