What materia does Tifa get? With the options that materia can offer, this could potentially be an easy win for her. Otherwise, while she's certainly displayed far greater speed than Thunderbolt has, he has that insane strength and durability, which is clearly beyond Tifa's own, as well as the advantages that his lightning can offer (long ranged offensive power + electromagnetic barrier).
Tifa with a decent inventory owns his ass, bad.
Until the TC specifies what she goes into the match with, I'm just going to attribute her with whatever I think her best chances of winning are.
In other words, her natural reflexes + Pre-Emptive materia net her the first move, and she runs around him using her incredible natural speed + the dash materia, raises her hand, and turns him into a frog using some nice transform materia. All while sporting a barrier, lightning elemental defence, and a raise potion, in case the Colonel gets lucky with the first hit, with a counter materia to ensure victory. Game. Set. Match.
She could also choose to just play around with him, using constant gravity attacks to leave him in a state of near death, or cast poison on him and make fun of him until he dies. Or confuse him into killing himself, or putting him to sleep and doing ungodly things to his vulnerable body. The possibilities are endless.