Plane Crash & statistics

Originally posted by KidRock
I guess the irony of it all is when lightening hits a plane and causes it to crash. 😐

Which rarely happens because of the altitude of the plane and because the cabin is insulated. Plane travel is statistically pretty safe but hey, if someone wants to build a clean, high speed continental and intercontinental bullet train system that'll levitate on a magnetic rail, hence incurring little to no wear and tear and that'll go at incredibly fast speeds that are at the threshold of what human beings find tolerable, I'm all for it.

Originally posted by Evil Dead
statistics are total horse shit.

statistics of any kind are based upon a large sampling of data. Statistics count a multitude of events which each had the same outcome. They do not, however, account for the specific unique variables that occur in each and every person's life that may or may not affect the outcome, the data that is being used. In some scenerios, this is moot. Others, vastly important.

eg. a person could take into account the amount of people living in any city, also take into account the amount of car accidents in that city per year. Based on these two numbers they would give you a statiscal probability of you being in a car accident this year in that city if you're a resident. rubbish. There are so many variables and specifics not accounted for, not the least of which is your own personal driving ability. Some elderly man with poor vision who's hobby is drunk driving would have the same probability of getting into an accident as you. While everybody would indeed have the same probability of being blind sided by another driver, the difference in variables of your life as opposed to his greatly reduces your odds of being in a car accident of your own doing. This, however, would not be shown. Statistics gather data, just an equation. Each person has the same value, 1. It doesn't matter if you're blind, mentally handicapped or Chuck Norris. You're all equal, 1.

Statistics should only ever be used to demonstrate trends in an entire population. They should never be used in respect to a single individual nor a group of individuals significantly smaller than the population used to gather data from.

Let's say only 100 people per year die in plane crashes. There is no probability there in respect to single individuals. Every person who flies on a plane has the same chance of being one of those 100 every time they lift off. For an entire population, only 100 people out of 6.5 billion is pretty good odds for those that comprise it. As an individual, does you no good. You're not concerned about the other 6.5 billion, you're only concerned about 1.......and you have no more/no less of chance of going down in flames than the 100 people who did so last year.

Odd, very odd.

Originally posted by Evil Dead
statistics are total horse shit.

statistics of any kind are based upon a large sampling of data. Statistics count a multitude of events which each had the same outcome. They do not, however, account for the specific unique variables that occur in each and every person's life that may or may not affect the outcome, the data that is being used. In some scenerios, this is moot. Others, vastly important.

eg. a person could take into account the amount of people living in any city, also take into account the amount of car accidents in that city per year. Based on these two numbers they would give you a statiscal probability of you being in a car accident this year in that city if you're a resident. rubbish. There are so many variables and specifics not accounted for, not the least of which is your own personal driving ability. Some elderly man with poor vision who's hobby is drunk driving would have the same probability of getting into an accident as you. While everybody would indeed have the same probability of being blind sided by another driver, the difference in variables of your life as opposed to his greatly reduces your odds of being in a car accident of your own doing. This, however, would not be shown. Statistics gather data, just an equation. Each person has the same value, 1. It doesn't matter if you're blind, mentally handicapped or Chuck Norris. You're all equal, 1.

Statistics should only ever be used to demonstrate trends in an entire population. They should never be used in respect to a single individual nor a group of individuals significantly smaller than the population used to gather data from.

Let's say only 100 people per year die in plane crashes. There is no probability there in respect to single individuals. Every person who flies on a plane has the same chance of being one of those 100 every time they lift off. For an entire population, only 100 people out of 6.5 billion is pretty good odds for those that comprise it. As an individual, does you no good. You're not concerned about the other 6.5 billion, you're only concerned about 1.......and you have no more/no less of chance of going down in flames than the 100 people who did so last year.

As an individual it does you plenty of good when looking for objective informatipon as to the safety of planes, as should be bloody obvious.

Hence broadly saying statistics are horse shit is... not intelligent comment. It's down to how you use them. Statistics are extremely useful in doing things like pointing out that you are very safe on a plane.

Originally posted by Ushgarak
As an individual it does you plenty of good when looking for objective informatipon as to the safety of planes, as should be bloody obvious.

Hence broadly saying statistics are horse shit is... not intelligent comment. It's down to how you use them. Statistics are extremely useful in doing things like pointing out that you are very safe on a plane.

Unless it crashes in the ocean and is never found when your on it🙂

Eh you've been making more typo's than me lately, are you drinking or accidentally turned the spell checker off?

Stats are averages, as has been said before. Maybe 10 crashes happen a year and I don't think it would be a reach to say that millions of flights happen a year.

You can't just pick out a few situations and say stats are bs. Although in Monopoly, I'm willing to argue that point 😂 .

Originally posted by Bicnarok
Unless it crashes in the ocean and is never found when your on it🙂

Nah, plane journeys are still comparatively safe, though it would suck for you.

Originally posted by Bardock42
Nah, plane journeys are still comparatively safe, though it would suck for you.

walking down the street is also safe,, unless there's an asteroid about to hit your location.

Basically nothings safe nowhere, when your numbers called in its time to row that boat ashore no matter what the statistics say🙂

Originally posted by Bicnarok
walking down the street is also safe,, unless there's an asteroid about to hit your location.

Basically nothings safe nowhere, when your numbers called in its time to row that boat ashore no matter what the statistics say🙂

Well, that assumes that our lives are determined from the start. And even then, statistics give you a pretty good look at what you will likely die of, and what probably not.

Originally posted by Bicnarok
walking down the street is also safe,, unless there's an asteroid about to hit your location.

Basically nothings safe nowhere, when your numbers called in its time to row that boat ashore no matter what the statistics say🙂

thats not what statistics are trying to say though

I was thinking.

Maybe someone, just for fun, could come up with the probability of dying or being injured from like...the top 20-30 external ways to die when one is just walking on the street. By external, I mean things outside the body.

I'm not sure what someone who fears dying or injured in various ways, would be called, but I guess it would still be thantophobia. Wait, there's another called Traumatophobia.

Originally posted by Bicnarok
walking down the street is also safe

Yeah, but if you factor in the path it would take for you to walk from San Franciso to New York, you'd have a higher chance of being killed along the way than if you just took a plane, statistically speaking.

It's also be faster and more comfortable.

Originally posted by Bardock42
This seems to jump from statistics is horseshit to and that's how awesome statistics are back to that's why you can't rely on them and then back to but statistics show you your chance.

Odd, very odd.

completely false but hey, feel free to quote my post and show me....

As an individual it does you plenty of good when looking for objective informatipon as to the safety of planes, as should be bloody obvious.

Hence broadly saying statistics are horse shit is... not intelligent comment. It's down to how you use them. Statistics are extremely useful in doing things like pointing out that you are very safe on a plane.

please explain Ush. How do these statistics make me any safer than anybody who has ever died in a plane crash? If statistics are indeed useful, as you say, you should be able to show how I am more safe than a bunch of dead people based upon them. Isn't not dying the ultimate goal? please explain how statistics make me safer than those who are now dead. Were the statistics that much different last year? If not, by your logic, all those people who died were completely safe on their plane.

again, statistics offer nothing to individuals because they are not based on individuals nor variable between individuals. statistics are based on data taken from a population. As such, they may be helpful in forcasting trends in a population but as an individual offer you nothing. I'm not worried about the rest of the population when I get on an airplane, I'm worried about an individual.

Statistics about plane crashes don't say your totally safe on a plane, they say you're safer on a plane than in a car. Which you are, just as your safer using a parachute than not.

Originally posted by Evil Dead
completely false but hey, feel free to quote my post and show me....

Nah

And the, very few, people that died last year don't have any bearing on how safe you are potentially if choosing a random flight.

I mean, seriously, do you assume you will die from a coconut falling on your head because a few people die of that every year? Or do you accept that it is actually statistically unlikely and has bearing on you as an individual, as in, you probably won't die of that?

Originally posted by Symmetric Chaos
Statistics about plane crashes don't say your totally safe on a plane, they say you're safer on a plane than in a car. Which you are, just as your safer using a parachute than not.

doesn't make it true. I'm going to assume that just about everybody who has died in a plane crash drove a car. Most probably drove a car many times a day, decade after decade. How was flying in a plane safer than driving a car? They didn't die from car crashes, they died from plane crashes. How, again, were they safer flying?

again, statistics may say that a population is safer flying than driving but that has no relevance to a single individual.

Originally posted by Evil Dead

again, statistics may say that a population is safer flying than driving but that has no relevance to a single individual.

It does actually though. It very much influences the outcome of your life.

Originally posted by Bardock42
It does actually though. It very much influences the outcome of your life.

please explain. this goes to Ush, sym. chaos, anybody else.

how does any car crash or plane crash directly relate to me anytime I drive my car or fly in a plane. They do not. There is no connection at all.

for statistics to be useful at all to an individual, every event would have to be directly related to every other. It is not. The universe operates through chaos. Statistics are for those people scared of chaos, to make them feel safer. No car crash in history as an affect on my probability of getting in a car accident today when I drive to work. No plane crash in history has an affect on me nor the plane I am flying on. It's random, beautiful chaos. If it does, it does. If it don't, it don't. Nothing you can do about it. No need for completely unrelated numbers to make you feel safer.

Originally posted by Evil Dead
please explain. this goes to Ush, sym. chaos, anybody else.

how does any car crash or plane crash directly relate to me anytime I drive my car or fly in a plane. They do not. There is no connection at all.

for statistics to be useful at all to an individual, every event would have to be directly related to every other. It is not. The universe operates through chaos. Statistics are for those people scared of chaos, to make them feel safer. No car crash in history as an affect on my probability of getting in a car accident today when I drive to work. No plane crash in history has an affect on me nor the plane I am flying on. It's random, beautiful chaos. If it does, it does. If it don't, it don't. Nothing you can do about it. No need for completely unrelated numbers to make you feel safer.

I mean, what do you believe here, like I said earlier, you seem to flip flop from concept to concept, to me, so could you clarify?

Originally posted by Bardock42
Wait, so what are you trying to sell me. When you go on a plane is it determined whether it crashes or not? Is there a 50-50 to you that it's going to crash, or is the likelyhood that it happens, though influenced by many different factors somewhere around the statistical likelyhood?

I mean, what do you believe here, like I said earlier, you seem to flip flop from concept to concept, to me, so could you clarify?

what are you babbling about? nobody said anything about pre-determination. nobody said anything about 50/50.

you did mention earlier that I flip flop, I asked you to quote an example, you ignored it. Either English is not your first language or you are a fan of the most idiotic debating tactic ever devised, just make shit up and pretend your opposition actually said it....even though the audience, or forum can hear/read for themselves to know it untrue.

what needs clarification here? statistics have nothing to do with an individual and are therefore not applicable to an individual. statistics only suggest tendencies in large populations as large populations are used for the data that statistic is based on. If there are 100 car crashes every year for 10 years, you could surmise there will probably be about 100 crashes this year. That has abosuletly nothing to do with individuals...unless you can predict exactly who these car crashes will affect. 1 person may have 100 car accidents or 100 people could each have one. Even if the latter, you have no way of knowing which 100 so you are just as likely as every person who dies in a car accident to have one. This does nothing for an individual. What good is your stat if you're one of those who die? none.

if English isn't your first language, what is. I will try to find an online translator. If it is, quit just making shit up because you're bored.

Originally posted by Evil Dead
what are you babbling about? nobody said anything about pre-determination. nobody said anything about 50/50.

you did mention earlier that I flip flop, I asked you to quote an example, you ignored it. Either English is not your first language or you are a fan of the most idiotic debating tactic ever devised, just make shit up and pretend your opposition actually said it....even though the audience, or forum can hear/read for themselves to know it untrue.

what needs clarification here? statistics have nothing to do with an individual and are therefore not applicable to an individual. statistics only suggest tendencies in large populations as large populations are used for the data that statistic is based on. If there are 100 car crashes every year for 10 years, you could surmise there will probably be about 100 crashes this year. That has abosuletly nothing to do with individuals...unless you can predict exactly who these car crashes will affect. 1 person may have 100 car accidents or 100 people could each have one. Even if the latter, you have no way of knowing which 100 so you are just as likely as every person who dies in a car accident to have one. This does nothing for an individual. What good is your stat if you're one of those who die? none.

if English isn't your first language, what is. I will try to find an online translator. If it is, quit just making shit up because you're bored.

Just answer my question, bro.

Do you believe that when you go on a plane it is absolutely random whether it is going to fall, or do the factors that cause the statistics to be the way they are, also have bearing on you going on this plane?