Chinese economy to surpass US by 2016

Originally posted by Robtard
When it comes time to collect, your bruiser better be bigger and badder than the dead-beat who owes, else he get slapped.

true, the cost of waging war with America would be far less than letting them default on debt

EDIT: oops! lol, I need to improve my basic reading skills... I agree, American military power, even if it stopped increasing right now, would be enough to prevent foreign invasion/assault of mainland North America for decades to come. China would really have no way to collect their debt if America said "we can't pay"

Originally posted by Bardock42
Now that you said it that makes a lot of sense really.

I have that effect on people

Originally posted by Bardock42
Not to forget that the vast majority of US debt is owned US internally, not foreign governments.

how does that work? private loans? or is there a way for the government to lend itself cash? (like, the "state bank" lends the policy makers cash?)

Large financial institutions and banks and private investment firms. All the things the Chinese and other countries use to buy our debt exist here and in greater number. I think 25% of US debt is foreign owned.

Originally posted by inimalist
how does that work? private loans? or is there a way for the government to lend itself cash? (like, the "state bank" lends the policy makers cash?)

A bunch is owed to people in the US, but yeah, the government also borrows money from itself especially from Social Security.

oh, ok, I get what you are saying. interesting.

IR theory says that in a unipolar moment, when there is only one superpower, as that superpower's might wanes and as more and more other countries challenge its authority, the superpower will become more desperate and barbaric to maintain its hold as the sole superpower and total war will become inevitable. Not a good prospect considering that free trade has completely crippled the US military. No domestic manufacturing/strategic industries means no national defense.

IR theory?

International relations theory

now, when you say free trade has crippled the US military, that aside, crippled them against who?

conventional force isn't terribly useful on an asymmetrical field, and there is no reasonable force on the planet that might stand against America, let alone NATO and its international allies (Israel, Turkey, India, etc).

When I think American military, I might think "overextended" or "demoralized", but "weak" or "crippled"... not one of the first that comes to mind...

like I get your point, and there is nonsense like the second engine for the X35 (a single engine jet) and that kind of stuff, but America could stop manufacturing military equipment and would still stand head and shoulders above any other power/bloc on the planet.

I watched something on tv and apparently to facilitate their economic boon and provide steady work, the Chinese government is just building huge modern cities... except they have no one using them. So they are essentially spending money building ghost towns... surely that isn't economically viable in a long term plan?

Originally posted by srankmissingnin
I watched something on tv and apparently to facilitate their economic boon and provide steady work, the Chinese government is just building huge modern cities... except they have no one using them. So they are essentially spending money building ghost towns... surely that isn't economically viable in a long term plan?

the article I posted on the first page talks about this type of thing specifically

growth of the chinese currency and economy is based on huge amounts of investment, which is a sort of short term boom, but the problem is, huge cities, airports, trains, etc, and their people have no use for them. Because there is a point were investment will plateau, the Chinese gvt should (according to the article, I wont pretend to know economics) focus on economic policy that will increase middle and lower class income, such that they can live in these cities and make use of the government investment.

Otherwise, no, it isn't sustainable at all. Economists have been predicting for years that the type of growth China sees is not sustainable, though the leaders of the communist party and business seem to like the quick buck.

Originally posted by inimalist
how does that work? private loans? or is there a way for the government to lend itself cash? (like, the "state bank" lends the policy makers cash?)

Most of the US debt is in the form of treasury bonds which are held by the Americn people

and yes, I still think triple digit inflation is coming

Originally posted by The Dark Cloud
Most of the US debt is in the form of treasury bonds which are held by the Americn people

everything I know of American politics comes from the media (including AJE and co on this one too), and to hear them tell it, 600% of US debt is owned by China and they have a battalion of repo-men on their way to collect...

so ya, was not aware of that at all. Why wouldn't you be more worried about some rich person collecting those bonds and forcing the state into a fascism? it would be like buying a majority share in a company... if the "boogey man" of Chinese debt is to be believed.

The American people would be far more of a risk than would the Chinese! AND THE PHONE CALLS ARE COMING FROM INSIDE THE HOUSE!!!!!

Originally posted by The Dark Cloud
and yes, I still think triple digit inflation is coming

can you explain how? like, how does inflation get to, 70%, without dramatic changes in monetary policy? do you think the people at the top want triple digit inflation?

Theory in this context meaning "random guess".

Originally posted by inimalist
b]

can you explain how? like, how does inflation get to, 70%, without dramatic changes in monetary policy? do you think the people at the top want triple digit inflation? [/B]

As the debt continues to rise the dollar gets weaker, I'm surprised it's still as strong as it is. Moody's just recently issued a warning on the US credit rating, which also came as no real surprise to anyone. As for the people at the top wanting high inflation conventional wisdom says no but if you believe the conspiracy theorists then yes, they want to crash the dollar and replace it with a global currency.

The fact is the fed printing money like crazy and giving it to the banks which is artifically propping up the stock market. At no time in history has the government printed money the way it's doing now. If this trend continues we could be lookingg at the Weimar Republic all over again. But hey, it'll pay off the debt.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Financial_position_of_the_United_States

Originally posted by The Dark Cloud
As the debt continues to rise the dollar gets weaker, I'm surprised it's still as strong as it is. Moody's just recently issued a warning on the US credit rating, which also came as no real surprise to anyone. As for the people at the top wanting high inflation conventional wisdom says no but if you believe the conspiracy theorists then yes, they want to crash the dollar and replace it with a global currency.

The fact is the fed printing money like crazy and giving it to the banks which is artifically propping up the stock market. At no time in history has the government printed money the way it's doing now. If this trend continues we could be lookingg at the Weimar Republic all over again. But hey, it'll pay off the debt.

Originally posted by King Kandy
lol do you really think that this is comparable to Weimar Germany? In that case the allies could and did use military force to collect on their payments... How would that happen in the US?

They collected on money that wasn't worth anything. That's literally how Germany paid off it's debts when it had no money.

China continues to loan us money despite knowing the risk, because it wants our technology, military and otherwise. Other countries that hold large amounts of US debt, Japan and Saudi Arabia, have obvious reasons for holding onto that debt though they are now trying to diversify away from the dollar.

As for the holders of the treasury bonds, we (I have some myself), will be lucky to collect for pennies on the dollar.

Originally posted by The Dark Cloud
They collected on money that wasn't worth anything. That's literally how Germany paid off it's debts when it had no money.

China continues to loan us money despite knowing the risk, because it wants our technology, military and otherwise. Other countries that hold large amounts of US debt, Japan and Saudi Arabia, have obvious reasons for holding onto that debt though they are now trying to diversify away from the dollar.

As for the holders of the treasury bonds, we (I have some myself), will be lucky to collect for pennies on the dollar.

Originally posted by The Dark Cloud
Most of the US debt is in the form of treasury bonds which are held by the Americn people

and yes, I still think triple digit inflation is coming

I can definitely see high inflation coming. triple digits? Not sure about that.