Black Panther should win both.
I know Toad has very powerful legs, but the panther king fights with jungle beasts and wins with his bare hands and been trained since childhood. He has also stalemated Captain America and defeated Iron Fist, albeit coming out injured T'challa is seriously up there in h2h combat for humans.
And in all out fight I have even less hope for Toad. Panther's vibranium costume has shielded him from far worse than anything Toad can dish out. If Toad sticks his tongue out at T'Challa, its getting cut off by the energy dagger.