2016 Presidencial Race

Started by Q9930 pages
Originally posted by Time Immemorial
The dems and media have just given the election to Hilary. This is the Freedom of Choice at its best.

Hey, there'll still be votes and such. People all decided, "Yea, that one," is still freedom of choice.

I mean, Eisenhower. He was so popular that whichever party he ran as- and he reportedly did so via coin flip- was gonna win. Did that rob freedom of choice? Nah, it just showed that people had already decided and didn't need to wait to the last minute.

The Democrats? Well, they were ready for her last time, and now she has more experience at high level, she learned from Obama and sharpened up her campaign, and closed up some of her vulnerabilities. As per usual the right hates her, but that also means there's no secrets, there's not going to be any surprises that can be pulled at the last minute, everyone's already pulled every attack against her and run it into the ground, and that's a plus in it's own way, knowing the other side has already used their ammo and knowing Hillary can handle what they throw.

The media? ... Fox and such disagrees, but I think there is a general feeling the Republicans are at a disadvantage here after Obama's strong term. That said, race is early, and that's people's feelings when there's 15 squabbling primary candidates, rather than One person to unite behind. It is waaaay too early to call the race.

Huh, I was just taking a closer look at the favorability rankings...

Sure, on balance between favorable and unfavorable, Hillary and Jeb are near-even at -4 and -3, but...

Jeb has the highest actual 'favorable' number among the Republicans, at 35% from all American adults thinking favorably of him.

Hillary's at 43%.

So... yea, that's why people think she's gonna win. 8% higher than the next closest. Double-digit ahead of everyone else.

Obama's strong term? his first 4 years were disastrous, his last 4 better than average.

Originally posted by psmith81992
Obama's strong term? his first 4 years were disastrous, his last 4 better than average.

In his first four years, he came into a crash already-in-progress that came from a hit bigger than the economic hit at the start of the great depression, passed a stimulus bill estimated to have saved between 2 and 4 billion jobs and stemmed the fall, then passed a health care bill that, in retrospect, we now know comes in underbudget and provides coverage to tens of millions of Americans. Oh, and helped mend fences / improve the US's world image with many other countries, and killed Bin Laden.

I mean, it was a bad four years in that, yea, we were at the bottom of a big hole, but it was a good performance in that it got us pointed out of the hole (and many countries at the same time bungled their recoveries and stalled 'em out by doing things like austerity or too little stimulus). His performance was good even if it was in bad times.

And conversely, I view his second term as fairly unexceptional. Unlike the first term, where he was able to pass some big changes, in the second, he was mostly protecting policies he already enacted, preventing debt ceilings from being blown, and was in position to make fewer big moves- with the Iranian deal one of the few big things, and even that he started laying groundwork in the first term with the international relations moves then. Holding onto and guarding his gains for them to have time to flourish was the name of the game the second time out.

Sure, the country is doing better in the second term, but due to stuff done in the first.

Hilary is surley ****ed.

http://nypost.com/2015/07/26/hillary-has-a-dangerous-enemy-in-the-obama-administration/

I will start taking bets with Q99 and Omega that she don't make it to the primary.

A right-wing paper saying she's doomed? Yea, I'm not convinced. We'll see if anything comes of it.

Originally posted by Q99
saved between 2 and 4 billion jobs

Uh.....

Originally posted by Q99
A right-wing paper saying she's doomed? Yea, I'm not convinced. We'll see if anything comes of it.

I have to question your sources. While Obama inherited a mess, he made an even bigger mess his first 4 years. It was a disaster of epic proportions. I don't know where you got the idea that he saved 2-4 million jobs. The stimulus did nothing but further water down the dollar. Only in Obama's 6th year did he start to progress. But his first 5 can only be described as an unmitigated disaster.

Originally posted by Time-Immemorial
Hilary is surley ****ed.

http://nypost.com/2015/07/26/hillary-has-a-dangerous-enemy-in-the-obama-administration/

I will start taking bets with Q99 and Omega that she don't make it to the primary.


You're going to bet that she doesn't even stay in the race till the primary?

You must be really bad with money.

Originally posted by Q99
A right-wing paper saying she's doomed? Yea, I'm not convinced. We'll see if anything comes of it.

The NY Post is right wing?

Holy shit...

I thought they were more neutral to left-wing. Am I living under a rock?

NY post is left wing.

Originally posted by psmith81992
I have to question your sources. While Obama inherited a mess, he made an even bigger mess his first 4 years. It was a disaster of epic proportions. I don't know where you got the idea that he saved 2-4 million jobs. The stimulus did nothing but further water down the dollar.

According to multiple independent economics analysts including the CBO.

3.3 million is the number they give.

Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody's Analytics and an advisor to John McCain's presidential campaign, working with former Federal Reserve vice chairman Alan Blinder, pegged it at 2.7 million.

USAtoday article mentions economists at Goldman Sachs, IHS Global Insight, JPMorgan Chase and Macroeconomic Advisers, say the stimulus boosted gross domestic product.

Additionally, the US auto industry was certainly saved by Obama's first term bailout of them. Now they're healthy, but back then they were in great danger of collapsing and taking hundreds of thousands to millions of jobs with them- separate from the stimulus.

See, the economic crash basically made a... hole in the economy. Lack of jobs meant there were fewer businesses that needed help from other businesses which cost more jobs, and it was also hard to get loans at that point to help so some normally temporary problems got worse. Paying people to do jobs and such fills that hole, and it can go slowly, or it can be filled faster with things like the stimulus.

Before the economic stimulus hit, the economy was bleeding jobs rapidly. When the stimulus hit, that stopped, and reversed, but took time to heal.

Heck, one of the big arguments is whether it was big enough- 8.8 million was the amount lost, so preventing several millions from going with it was a bandage on a wound that'd already lost a lot of blood.

I will compare to other countries that took other tactics- England did economic austerity (i.e. cutting spending)... and they got double- and triple- digit recessions, and higher debts without the job growth we had. And more jobs means more taxes means easier to pay down, so long-term, it's really better to deal with these things faster.

Not spending just allows the bleeding to continue. It's like the Great Depression, where things stayed crap until the New Deal started, they began improving, the opponents put the Deal on pause, they got worse again, the Deal got re-started, and they continued to improve until the war.

Only in Obama's 6th year did he start to progress. But his first 5 can only be described as an unmitigated disaster.

If you look at the US unemployment and the amount of hiring in the country, it's steadily gone up consistently once recovery begins, with the only slight blips due to stuff like debt ceiling fights (which caused economic uncertainty which slows hiring- but still, small blips, it's been incredibly consistent).

Here, he's Gallup's Job Creation index. Says a lot in a very visible chart.

We've been on an upward hill almost Obama's entire run once the stimulus hit and the recession was ended- some bumps, but a solid trajectory better than most other countries hit.

Year 6 may be when we passed up where we were, but that's because we were digging ourselves out of a hole, and the stimulus was some of the biggest shovel loads that helped us do so. Obama was handed a crisis and had to start at the bottom of a big hole, but 'getting us out of the hole' is a big accomplishment in itself- possibly his biggest.

And did I mention that the initial economic hit was actually proportionally bigger than the Great Depression's in terms of money lost? Had nothing been done- not just stimulus but also bailout at the end of Bush's term, they made a great one-two punch- then it'd certainly been well over a decade before we'd get to where we are right now. Had we had the bailout but more stimulus, we'd probably have a not-too-healthy 7~8% unemployment rate instead of a very solid 5.5%. Worse, if austerity had been tried.

So yea, go stimulus, it helped, significantly.

NY Post is Center Right.

Originally posted by Q99
A right-wing paper saying she's doomed? Yea, I'm not convinced. We'll see if anything comes of it.
Originally posted by Omega Vision
You're going to bet that she doesn't even stay in the race till the primary?

You must be really bad with money.

So we taking bets?

I'll bet you an "I told you so" that Hilary is still an active candidate when the primaries come around.

Also, the loser of the bet has to adopt the winner's sig and avatar for two weeks. Deal?

No I am betting she won't be the nominee.

Originally posted by Time-Immemorial
No I am betting she won't be the nominee.

👆

I'm hoping she won't be the nominee. But I am not stupid enough to take this bet against or for you.

I'm not sure how this will go, actually.

Originally posted by Time-Immemorial
No I am betting she won't be the nominee.

Saying she won't make it to the primary and won't be the nominee are different. Ron Paul certainly wasn't the nominee in 2012, but he made it to the primary and his supporters almost staged an electoral coup.

At this point it's too early to make a bet about who the nominee will be.

One litmus test I use is, if one article predicts doom and gloom for someone, *regardless* of side, I check to see if other papers are picking up the story.

Then I look and I see ABC's story being about how it's a headache for the attorney general, and they're not exactly a leftist rag, and the topic in general isn't even high on the list of news stories.

Unless things explode big later, it just seems like not enough people, not even newspapers, care.

Found another article, directly addressing the e-mail thing

Here's the crux of the matter:

' In any event, there is no evidence that Clinton herself had, or should have had, any inkling about the classification.

"We note that none of the emails we reviewed had classification or dissemination markings, but some included [intelligence community]-derived classified information and should have been handled as classified, appropriately marked, and transmitted via a secure network," the intelligence inspector general, I. Charles McCullough III, wrote to Congress last week. '

Or in other words, some e-mails passed through her hands that should've been classified and not done so, but were unlabeled as such, and she didn't have a reason to check.

It's a sign of some problem somewhere in the loop, but not a major issue and I wouldn't expect whoever even shot off the original information to get more than a reprimand.