Kenobi holds up VERY well in the beginning, but weakens over time due to Malgus' force superiority.
If Kenobi can't find an opening through Soresu in the first minute or two, Malgus wins with TK.
I think it's close though...Kenobi is no slouch and Malgus has never faced a duelist as techically proficient as him before (right?).