Poll
32%
42%
26%
MCU vs DCCU 2016
This thread is about which cinematic universe will make more money in 2016. Seeing as this is the MVF; this only refers to the movie sales and nothing else.
Basically Doctor Strange and Civil War vs BVS and Suicide Squad
Will Mavel continue to impose it's dominance or will DC show that it can hang with the big boys?
-CW's going to make bank, Captain America is long established and I wouldn't be surprised at all if CW makes over 750mil in profits (unless it's a complete turd). So Marvel has that advantage going for it.
-Doctor Strange will likely pull in at least 450mil or so in profits. While the GA probably doesn't know a lot about the character, Cumberbatch is established.
-BvS is hard to say, MoS made about $450 in profits, but we're adding Batman and the GA is still likely on a Batman-high from the the Nolan films so it's very possible for this to make 750mil in profit and match CA:CW, but it's not a shoe-in like CA:CW.
-SS, this one I'm not really sure. I can see it not doing superb initially but if it's great, word of mouth could have a GotG affect on it.
Conclusion: I'd guess Marvel will pull ahead, mostly because of Captain America being in his 5th movie and WS being applauded as one of the best MCU films to date.
Like I've been saying for a while , Suicide Squad will make around 650-700 WW. That's mainly due to Will Smith right now. A movie where it involves action/Will Smith usually does around that WW (Without 3-d mind you). I Am Legend, MIB 3, and Hancock all did that and that was without the Joker effect and cameos from Batman.
It could potentially do more, because of those things. In terms of awareness, SS has ALREADY 27 Million views on Youtube, not counting Facebook. That's 3 million shy of Batman V Superman!
BVS will likely do around 1 Billion plus. The marketing hasn't even ramped up yet and the potential is huge. It's going to be interesting, but I can see it making more money than Cap 3, especially with the release date. There is NO competition for 6 weeks, while Cap 3 will have some competition. Time will tell.
Wall of text, but this poster on the BO forums mentions some good things:
Everybody here is under estimating the power of Batman.Enough with the "they're not sold on Affleck" shit. Audiences were not sold on Michael Keaton. They were not sold on Heath Ledger. Each of their films broke the opening weekend record so clearly the casting controversy did not mean anything. Audiences generally hated Batman Returns - and it showed in the films terrible box office legs. There were major changes with casting afterwards - did it affect the box office? Of course not. Batman Forever broke Jurassic Park's opening weekend record, becoming the first film to open to $50 million. While nothing can excuse Batman & Robin, even BATMAN BEGINS - which everybody considered a a box office disappointing when it opened (10 years ago today, funny enough) - inflates to $261 million, which in reality is near or over $300 million if it was in 3D.
Those are all just facts.
BATMAN is the only character that every age group thinks it cool - little kids, teenagers, adults. There is real tangible enthusiasm for the character among every age group. In 7 films, the character's movies have broken the opening weekend record 4 times. It still holds the admissions record (The Dark Knight) while a 5th movie, TDKR, would have almost certainly broke the admissions record had there been major shooting. Batman is the most popular fictional character in pop culture within the United States, and it really isn't close. Be it the 1960s, 1980s, 1990s, or the 2000s - Batmania has struck repeatedly throughout history. There is something about the coolness of the black costumes, the car, the bat cave. He has no super powers. Now, THE DARK KNIGHT trilogy is the most popular film series of the new millennium. THE DARK KNIGHT is the most popular and influential blockbuster film of the 2000's. The Dark Knight Rises was very well received. The Batman Arkham video games are enormous.
Reality is that the next Batman movie was always going to challenge box office records whenever it arrived. The character is just too popular.
It's almost impossible to make a serious prediction without understanding the context of certain numbers and what it means within that context. You can't make accurate inferences from numbers if you do not know or understand the context. Just can't do it.
THE DARK KNIGHT's opening weekend, with inflation and $3D, is about $225 million.
THE DARK KNIGHT RISES opening weekend, with inflation and 3D, is about $200 million.
TDKR lost millions in it's opening weekend from the shooting. While it is impossible to tell, I would guess conservatively the film lost at least $20 million opening weekend. If that were in 3D, that would put TDKR's opening weekend over $230 million when fully adjusted. These are backed up many things. Tracking at the time had it as the most anticipated film since 1999. It's $30.6 million midnights is enormous for having no 3D and represented an unusually large share of it's final opening day. Fabio and others reported night showing attendance drastically under performing mid day and pre sales. The shooting had an enormous impact on the casual walk up movie goer. I firmly believe that TDKR would topped $190 million opening weekend had there been no shooting. With 3D, that puts the opening weekend around $235 million.
I don't think a BEN AFFLECK solo Batman film would open to $235 million. But if you think for a second it would open under, say, $190 million territory, you have pretty much no evidence at all to support that claim and are basically just talking out of your ass.
Superman isn't as popular as Batman, but reality is overall, he is the second most popular super hero and clearly the most famous world wide. MAN OF STEEL outgrossed every starter Marvel movie with $700 million, while his domestic gross is topped only by Iron Man 1. Everybody hailed CAPTAIN AMERICA: THE WINTER SOLIDER as a mega smash break out and that's films 95/256 weren't close to Man of Steel's 128/292. Even with Cap having a month to himself and "amazing" reviews while Man of Steel faced absurd competition and "lukewarm word of mouth", Captain America couldn't get in Superman's zip code. The point is that the character of Superman is on a totally different level overall than any of the Marvel hero's, including Iron Man.
Getting into it a little more, there is a very strong argument to be made that MAN OF STEEL would have made substantially more money had it not opened just before a string of massive tent pole films were slated to open.
Weekend 2
It's easy to say MAN OF STEEL's 64% drop represented less than super word of mouth. But note that WORLD WAR Z and MONSTERS UNIVERSITY combined for $148 million that weekend. That's basically the same as having one mega tentpole open to $148 million in your second weekend. How many big blockbuster movies will fall under 60% in their 2nd weekend when facing another $148 million opener? Not many. AGE OF ULTRON just dropped 60% against only HOT PURSUIT and it's measly $13 million opening weekend.
CONTEXT MATTERS.
Does anybody here think that, if MAN OF STEEL's 2nd weekend only featured a film like HOT PURSUIT opening to a small gross, it would had dropped substantially less than 64.5%? I certainly do. That 64.5% drop is probably in the 54-56% ball park, which is very healthy.
Weekends 3, 4, and 5 were all more of the same. In addition to the big holdovers (WWZ and MU from weekend 2) combining for $65 million, weekend 3 saw THE HEAT and WHITE HOUSE DOWN combine for $55 million. MAN OF STEEL fell 49%. Weekend 4 found DESPICABLE ME 2 and THE LONE RANGER combining for $112 million, while the remaining 4 holdovers combined for $88 million. MAN OF STEEL fell 45%.
Am I say MAN OF STEEL had amazing word of mouth? No.
Am I saying MAN OF STEEL's less than impressive box office legs were much moreso due to huge competition"? Yes.
MAN OF STEEL wasn't as popular as it would have been had the film been a bit better, but I don't think it turned anybody truly off from the character. Had Warner Brother opened it in mid July as they had with the Batman movies, it almost certainly would have opened similarly but would have faced a much softer schedule. In my view, MAN OF STEEL would have grossed another $30 to $40 million total under more normal market conditions.
Batman is the biggest character in the country, while Superman - and in particular Cavill's version - remains very popular in their own right. The concept of bringing Batman and Superman together on the big screen holds more monetary potential than any other concept in film. The novelty factor of seeing these two ultra popular characters together is simply enormous and can't be replicated.
Reality is that a bunch of b- level hero's who had - IRON MAN aside - had minor hit films coming together in Avengers earned $208 million. $208 million. What the **** do you think combining two hero's who are, point blank, a lot more popular in their own right than any of the Avengers are, is going to do? It will somehow do LESS?
In a wise move, WB has avoided making films which look generic ala any Marvel movie. The "VS" theme is pure genius from a marketing perspective and allows this film to take a very different approach and angle than any other comic book film, which will generally negate any comic book super hero fatigue. Watching Marvel try to replicate it with less popular and much more played out characters 2 months later with CIVIL WAR is likely to get cringe worthy at some point.
The title sells EXACTLY what the film is. BATMAN VS ****ING SUPERMAN. It's going to be a rumble.
In another wise move, the release date couldn't be better. While each of the last 2 Superman movies were severely damaged by the studio's scheduling incompetence, they've chosen a simply inspired choice here. Though Feb and March have a few serious films opening, none of them look to challenge anything beyond the 50 or 60 million range at best. BVS will collect buzz all for itself generally for a 3 month period of time. The Hunger Games showed March has the potential to deliver big time grosses. The date also means BATMAN v SUPERMAN should be able to get pretty much whatever record it wants for theater counts, show times, etc. Everybody is going to get the hell out of the way.
With INFLATION and 3D, THE HUNGER GAMES opening weekend is right around $200 million. BATMAN V SUPERMAN is going to sell substantially more tickets on opening weekend than THE HUNGER GAMES will.
Jurassic World didn't open with enough show times. Star Wars opens in December in 2015 and Episode 8 opens over Memorial day in 2017, spreading out the gross. The demand clearly is not there with Marvel.
BATMAN v SUPERMAN represents are best bet to really get a feel for what max capacity opening weekend gross is. Whatever the character of Batman lost from Bale/Nolan is more than made for overall with the addition of Superman. The concept is enormous. The release date is perfect.
This is going to be the biggest opener in history, and I would guess the record is going to stand for some time.
MCU if i were to actually care..
i can see Cap Civil War making close to $1 billion WW... Dr. Strange I can see making Cap 1 st Avenger type dough but wouldn't at all be surprised if it pulls in Guardians of the Galaxy type dough...
Batman v Superman, perhaps will make around $750 to $850 million WW but that will depend on how people take to Affleck as Batman, as well as emaciated Gadot plus no talented actor Momoa.. even Eisenberg and has non talent self can people see him as someone ruthless and can deliver lines like Lex does...
Suicide Squad, I can only see make $350 to $475 WW.. Smith isn;t the box office draw he used to be, Leto is a talent however the spectre of Heath shines down on him so he has to prove he can be just as good, if not better.. Robbie is smoking hot but can she really act, the same with Cara, can she shake the supermodel in her and prove she can act..
Originally posted by Inhuman
Holy shit lol 😂Didnt think there were more die hard dc'ers than you.
Apparently your favorite sites you frequent are full of them.
It's not a DC site, moron. It's from BO forums.
http://forums.boxofficetheory.com/forum/65-box-office-clubs/
Originally posted by Zack M
It's not a DC site, moron. It's from BO forums.http://forums.boxofficetheory.com/forum/65-box-office-clubs/
You must be a doofus if you think thats what i meant.
Never said it was a DC site. Ill simplify it for you.
More than likely your favorite movie sites and such you frequent are usually full of die hard fanatics like yourself. Explains the endless amounts of links to blogs, articles, ect consisting of imaginary numbers and conclusions that are nothing more than hopeful speculation.
Originally posted by Inhuman
You must be a doofus if you think thats what i meant.
Never said it was a DC site. Ill simplify it for you.More than likely your favorite movie sites and such you frequent are usually full of die hard fanatics like yourself. Explains the endless amounts of links to blogs, articles, ect consisting of imaginary numbers and conclusions that are nothing more than hopeful speculation.
Die hard fanatics that use facts to back themselves up? How are they fanatics by stating the truth? I never said BVS is going to break OW weekend, but what he stated is something to think about. At least he brings facts to the table, unlike you. 🙂
Originally posted by Quincy
You don't think the logic of that post is pretty sound?
It's INHUMAN. He never brings anything to the table other than his trolling self. What Excel (The OP) said is absolutely true. Batman has broken the OW record FOUR ****ing times. It's certainly POSSIBLE for him to do it again. I'm not saying it will, but it COULD.
Originally posted by Quincy
You don't think the logic of that post is pretty sound?
Again . IMO its hopeful speculation.
Some of his points would have sounded better if the whole article he didnt spend it (not so) subtle , attacking the other studio while trying to make his points.
Just comes off like the usual fanboy rant about about my fav company is good and the other is bad nonsense.
http://www.killermovies.com/forums/f2/t614991.html
why make another thread about the same thing?
Imp, can you merge these?