Bernie Sanders Closing In On Hillary Clinton

Started by Q994 pages

Originally posted by Time-Immemorial
Your kidding she has no lead any more every day that passes her unfavorably try rating rises.

Whatever you are smoking pass it.

Look, here is a website called Realclearpolitics. 90% of what it does is simply list and adverage polls, with no weighting or prediction of the likes that, say, FiveThirtyEight does.

Here are the current presidential matchups according to many different polling places.

Here is how she matches against Bernie Sanders

You may look for yourself.

And from Gallup, one of the most reliable polling places there is, an older one that shows Hillary started higher in favorability than anyone else. Even a slide doesn't leave her in bad shape, especially not if she rebounds, which is not unlikely.

"People talking about something negatively," does not equal plummeting numbers, or the lead changing. Whether or not you are convinced that this eventually will affect her is neither here nor there, right the numbers are what they are.

On average, Hillary Clinton is 21% ahead of Bernie Sanders nationally, with the closest polling saying 18% ahead.

On average, Hillary Clinton is 8.8% ahead of Donald Trump, with the closest polling saying +4 ahead.

Do stop trying to substitute your opinion on what you want to happen to what the situation currently is. You can express what you favor and what you think will happen all you want, but obviously, those are currently in the realm of speculation and prediction, not fact.

Originally posted by Digi
👆

In this case it's even further removed from reality than the "liberals fear Trump" mantra. So this time we're afraid that a particular Democratic candidate will fall? Aren't Bernie and Biden, more or less, on the same team? Certainly everyone will prefer a particular candidate. But if she's really as unelectable as TI insinuates, I'd think we'd be happy at her replacement.

Basically if Hillary drops out tomorrow, Biden will have no problem stepping into her slot, will almost certainly beat Bernie, and be in a situation not much different than if Hillary continues on and wins the primary.

A wounded Hillary is actually much better for Republicans than a healthy Biden. Trumpeting "yay, we got one candidate to drop out early!" has pretty much no relevance on the race.

And even that is assuming Hillary really is wounded, which is far from sure.

Polling Trajectory Shows Bernie Sanders Winning the Democratic Nomination. It's Time For America to Notice: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/h-a-goodman/polls-show-bernie-sanders-winning-the-democratic-nomination_b_8069452.html

Bernie is tight on dat ass. Q99's dog is hurting.

If Sanders beats Clinton, Democrats have it in the Pocket 😖hifty:

Originally posted by Bentley
If Sanders beats Clinton, Democrats have it in the Pocket 😖hifty:
😆 😆

Originally posted by Time-Immemorial
Bernie is tight on dat ass. Q99's dog is hurting.

😂

Originally posted by |King Joker|
Polling Trajectory Shows Bernie Sanders Winning the Democratic Nomination. It's Time For America to Notice: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/h-a-goodman/polls-show-bernie-sanders-winning-the-democratic-nomination_b_8069452.html

Sure, if you go by pure trajectory. If you go by trajectory, Carson will pass Trump, since he's risen faster.

Also, that's not even entirely true since that article's release, the latest poll that came out showed Hillary expand the gap a little.

Polls are still showing Hillary with leads in the 20s and 30s, and Sanders still has a major weaknesses with several large Democratic demographics. Note that it's not that rare for eventual winners to have opponents surpass them occasionally, and still not be doom.

It's quite common for challengers to be good in a specific area, do well at first, even win a few states where their support is most concentrated, but then not be able to carry those numbers in the states outside their strongest base.

It's pretty similar to Howard Dean's run, for example, or a number of Republican candidates.

Originally posted by Time-Immemorial
Bernie is tight on dat ass. Q99's dog is hurting.

I do notice you don't really respond to posts that analyze polls or look into things like demographics and area of support. Certainly not with arguments.

Do you think entirely in 'X is winning, Y is losing, everyone who disagrees must be dumb', without any thought to why specific things? No curiosity as to whom is supporting whom and why?

Simply insisting that the side you want to be winning/losing is winning/losing is not prediction, it's stating preference.

https://mises.org/library/economics-bernie-sanders

Originally posted by psmith81992
https://mises.org/library/economics-bernie-sanders

"Before looking at Sanders’s platform, however, I believe it is important to note that when socialists speak of “victories” in the economy, they are not talking about actual results, but rather political achievements in the forms of laws being passed that mandate certain policies. Whether or not these policies actually achieve what socialists claim will be accomplished is another story altogether, but results are irrelevant to socialists."

I just don't think we are going to get an unbiased look at the topic from this author.

"If this reminds one of the fascism of the 1930s, that is because Sanders is promoting a version of the governing models of Germany under Adolph Hitler and Italy under Benito Mussolini.

Of the two, Sanders certainly is closer to Mussolini. Like Sanders, Mussolini called himself a socialist and was a leader in the Italian Socialist Party. Like Sanders, Mussolini decried “profiteers” and the wealthy, and spoke out against political corruption. Like Sanders, Mussolini spoke of a larger “national purpose” and sought to harness nationalism as a political force. Like Sanders, Mussolini sought to impose more and more controls on Italian businesses in order to direct production in a way to satisfy political purposes. Like Sanders, Mussolini built political power by appealing to Italian voters by saying that other Italians were well-off because they had gained their wealth on the backs of the poor."

lol

Sanders is somewhat more socialist than Clinton and the Republicans. But to be honest, the socialism thing in the US is mostly a pointless label. They all want socialised services, the question is just which ones, and who does it benefit.

Originally posted by psmith81992
https://mises.org/library/economics-bernie-sanders

At the same time, I do not want to let Sanders off the hook. He promotes economic nationalism and has built his campaign upon resentment, the kind of which Henry Hazlitt wrote in 1966 in his famous, “Marxism in One Minute.” Hazlitt wrote:

The whole gospel of Karl Marx can be summed up in a single sentence: Hate the man who is better off than you are. Never under any circumstances admit that his success may be due to his own efforts, to the productive contribution he has made to the whole community. Always attribute his success to the exploitation, the cheating, the more or less open robbery of others. (Emphasis mine)

Mmm, I can't agree with that.

Wanting to fight inequality with socialism =/= resentment or hating people better off than them.

Lesse, another bit:

Americans are not jobless because some people are not paying “their fair share” of taxes; they are jobless because the US government insists on directing resources from higher-valued uses to lower-valued uses, as determined by consumer choice.

So, what does Sanders propose to “revitalize” the US economy? Here are some things listed on his website:

....
Raise the minimum wage to $15 an hour;
Expand the reach of labor unions and vastly expand their membership;
....
Create a “youth jobs program” in which unemployed young people are given government-sponsored jobs (Sanders sees no connection between high minimum wages and youth unemployment);
....
Spend at least a trillion dollars on building and repairing roads, bridges, and utilities;
....

Enact a Canada-style single-payer healthcare system;
Provide free tuition for all public colleges and universities;....

Notice that there is nothing in the Sanders platform that calls for “nationalization” of the means of production, nor does he propose to do away with the price system. In other words, Sanders’s vision of socialism is not what Mao or Trotsky or Lenin proposed, yet there is not one thing in the entire platform that would reverse the dangerous economic trends of the past decade.

Note that the article says there's nothing that reverses the trends, but I left in five on the list that'd have a major or minor effect- giving higher income to the lower class will increase demand, which drives economic growth.
Labor unions protect worker's rights and have been statistically linked with better economic equality.
A trillion dollars on building and repairing roads, bridges, and utilities is not only one of the 'high value' uses the article just chided him on not doing, directly paying a lot of people to do a lot of jobs with good return, but it has major indirect value as worktime commutes, car repairs, and other inefficiencies in just about every business get reduced. Drop the daily commutes of tens of millions of people by minutes (sometimes more, where capacity can be increased), and you're pretty soon talking huge amounts of time saved, measured in big piles of person-years.

The US currently loses trillions of gallons of water *per year* due to aging infrastructure. Fixing the infrastructure simply saves money long term...

Youth job programs, well, that's facing unemployment in the most direct way of all, giving jobs.

And of course, Canada-style single payer healthcare costs notably less than Obamacare (and even further less than old health care) for even better covering, and it has positive economic/wealth inequality benefits by making health costs, which hit the poor quite heavily due to their lack of financial cushions, poof, vanish. Similarly, education costs. If better education is free, then it's easier to get higher paying jobs.

Which is not to say there's not problems with the list,

Break up banks and financial institutions;

This includes institutions like the Federal Reserve, which played a large role in our recovery from the financial crash.

Make it illegal for US corporations to manufacture goods abroad, and then sell those goods in the USA;

This'd put us in trade wars that'd cost us way more than it benefited.

Even so, Bernie clearly has a positive intent, despite a couple policies being quite iffy he has a lot of proposals which you can point to and say, "THIS is clearly intended to help with THAT."

If I could put the economics of Bernie Sanders into a nutshell, it would be this: Burden private enterprise with one directive after another, and then demonize it when it ultimately falls down under the awful weight of taxes, higher costs, and mandates.

The ironic thing is the article's own list of what Bernie does contradicts this.

I think the problem is the scandal isn't over and it seems more and more every day something new comes out. If the scandal itself went away this very day I would think she has a chance at winning..but if it continues to persist? Eh, I can't imagine how that would be good for her.

The email scandal by itself isn't a sure thing in ending Hillary; it's not evenly a likely thing. There are those that don't care; think it's a non-scandal and they'll will continue to not care, just as there are people (eg TI) who care and will talk about it for the next 4-8 years if Hillary wins the nom and Presidency, but these people were likely never Hillary supporters and will never be.

Where it really matters is the undecided supporter/voter and in another couple months they're going to get sick of hearing about Emailgate, they'll have moved on.

It's going to take sustained pressure from multiple "scandals" to end her, combined with another candidate shining brightly. Bernie seems the best one to do it atm.

No one cares about emails.

Originally posted by Mindset
No one cares about emails.

So no one cares she broke the saw and violated security?

She is stupid, at least Bill is smart enough not to use email, like he claimed, which Hilary blew his cover when she said she emailed him😂

Originally posted by Time-Immemorial
So no one cares she broke the saw and violated security?

Not really, no.

Originally posted by Mindset
Not really, no.

So you trust her even though she lies and violated security?

Care to try and reason that one out?

Originally posted by Time-Immemorial
So you trust her even though she lies and violated security?

Care to try and reason that one out?

I don't believe I said I supported her.

Originally posted by Mindset
I don't believe I said I supported her.

So why the hell would anyone else support a blatant liar with the security of this nation when she can't even secure her emails?

Originally posted by Time-Immemorial
So why the hell would anyone else support a blatant liar with the security of this nation when she can't even secure her emails?
Because

Originally posted by Mindset
No one cares about emails.