Originally posted by queeq
I think much sooner than that. Don't forget how much the merchandise rakes in.
The numbers they don't release are the advertising/marketing campaigns. Some estimates for big movies like these put those budgets, alone, at more than double the production costs. There are also pre-production and post-production costs that we are unaware of.
So I put out a conservative estimate of 4 years. 3 movies ought to put the $4 billion investment into profitability. I don't think Rogue One will break $500 million at the box office. Episode 8 should do almost as well if not better than TFA. That should be enough, if you consider pre-post-and marketing costs.
But you could be right. Merchandising may actually have already put this movie close to profitability for Disney's purchase. But it is highly unlikely they will release those figures to prove that.