But like you said.. there are random elements in your choice to drink and drive. There is no guarantee that you will hit someone and kill someone. There is no guarantee that teh police will pull you over. There is also a chance that you will get home fine. The true outcome in some cases you cannot know because of random elements.
Neo is taking the Architects advice that Zion will be destroyed if he saves Trinity, but it will also be destroyed if he goes through the door on his right and saves it at the same time by choosing 23 individuals to repopulate it. So in the reality of the Matrix, Neo is not truly making a choice that will change anything. In both scenarios Trinity dies and Zion is destroyed. But then, of course, that is what he is being told. The A.I. was solely interested in his thought processes concerning this situation. He made a different decision than the other 5 chosen. He went out stage left.