Originally posted by dadudemon
Educate me on the last part of that statement. I feel ignorant of your point about betting markets because from what I understand, human betting (gambling) outcomes are woefully random when statistically analyzed.For example, sports betting was analyzed and found to be close to just a random stochastic process (like fliipping a coin):
I also feel that you're making a legit point and I am just ignorant of that point because of a gap in my understanding or knowledge.
Here's one study, and from a google search it seems like the finding has been pretty well replicated*.
* Or rather, while there's contention as to whether betting markets beat well designed polling aggregates, they're certainly much better than a coin flip.
I don't know much about sports betting; if I could guess, I'd wager that athletic competitions are far more prone to chance than most political elections, and that maybe more people make frivolous sports bets. I dunno.
Originally posted by Surtur
Has this Silver person ever made an inaccurate prediction using stats?
I'm sure it isn't 100% accurate, so sure.
Lester Holt gets fact checked.
Originally posted by The EllimistTrolling and flame baiting another person isn't a reason to bump a thread. If TI is wrong then contribute to the thread with evidence proving contrary to his posts. Otherwise it's best to stop.
Bumping because I think Time-Immemorial's pathetic inability to get anything right is just f*cking hilarious.