Not sure, this might be really close. Luke was a beast in those prison fights and Fisk won't have his armoured suit to protect him. Might come down to how much space they have. In a small cell Fisk might be able to use his size to smother Luke's attacks and overwhelm him, but in a ring where Luke has space to manoeuvre he might be able to use his skills to target Fisk's joints and use strikes, locks and holds to wear Fisk down.
Fisk gave Matt a solid fight immediately after surviving a car crash. He shrugged off a taser, and was strong enough to hoist a heavily-armoured man right over his head. Not only that, but this was a Fisk who didn't spend most of his free time exercising in a prison yard.
Yeah, Cage won some fights, but he was also beaten half to death by two street thugs the moment they intended to hurt him. Does anyone here actually think that those two would have any hope of bringing down Fisk, or giving Matt half as good a fight as he did?
This match isn't close. Fisk wins it decisively.
I actually just rewatched the fight between Fisk and Matt, and I am not so sure this match is a good idea anymore. Fisk actually took like 5 billy club strikes right to the head in rapid succession, and they barely slowed him down.
From about 1:45.