How did Trump win? Here are 24 theories
http://www.cnn.com/2016/11/10/politics/why-donald-trump-won/index.html
Which theories have the most merit?
If you have a theory that isn't on that list, feel free to mention it. Really obvious stuff like black magic is off limits.
That last part is a joke, black magic is never off limits with me.
I believe Trump ran to cloud peoples focus on the experienced and valid candidates. Whether or not i am right his celebrity and message certainly baited the media and public away from asking important questions and thoroughly listening to the other candidates platforms.
It seems like a lot of conservatives waited to vote in the elections to see what the Republicans were going to by the primaries and by that time it was too late. The parties had been polarized
Originally posted by Silent Master
Is, he ran against one of the most corrupt politicians in modern history on the list?
Nope, but "because voters believed the system is corrupt" is on there, but no nothing about her specifically being corrupt. In fact there is nothing blaming Hilary at all. The closest they get is when they refer to the entire democratic party. Oh and they blame the democratic committee too.
However, "Not millennials" is on the list. I'm not even kidding. It's #12.
I honestly had skimmed the article and the reasons when I first posted the topic. I genuinely didn't realize how much comedy gold is there. This is a Thanksgiving miracle. Bizarrely, "not racism" is there too. Keep in mind CNN pulled these theories from several different sources and put them all into one list, but there were some strange choices.
Another highlight for me was " Because rural Midwesterners don't get out of the house enough".
Didn't read the link, but I'd name a few in particular:
1. The Left didn't show up to vote. Maybe it's because they didn't like Hillary, or maybe it's because they thought she was definitely going to win anyway.
2. Third parties and protest votes.
3. White trash showed up to vote for Trump, although I think the effect of this is rather overstated - Trump got less votes in total than Romney or Mccain.
4. Comey.
5. Voter ID laws.
6. Honestly, chance. The margin in so many of the states was within the margin of error, but happened to align in a way that Hillary could win the popular vote but lose the election anyway.
In case people don't want to read the link or maybe they are viewing this on their phone and don't want to open up another page, I'll list the reasons. I know I like to use up as little data possible on my phone. I am going to just copy and paste the reasons directly from the article. So this isn't just how I'm wording it, it's how they are.
1. He won because of Facebook and its inability or unwillingness to crack down on fake news
2. Because of social media, generally
3. Because of low voter turnout
4. Because celebrity outlasts substance
5. Because of white women
6. Because of white male resentment
7. Because of Russia after all?
8. Because the left and coastal elites shamed Trump supporters
9. Because rural Midwesterners don't get out of the house enough
10. Because the Democratic Party establishment didn't push Bernie Sanders
11. Because Reagan Democrats surged in Michigan and Midwest
12. Not because of millennials
13. Because of Gary Johnson and Jill Stein
14. Because political correctness set off a nasty backlash
15. Because he simply listened to the American people
16. Because college educated Americans are out of touch
17. Because Americans are biased -- but not against any race, ethnicity or gender
18. Because voters believed the system was corrupt
19. Because he remembered 'forgotten men, women' of America
20. Because Democrats focused more on turning out supporters than growing the base
21. Because the Democratic National Committee selected the less competitive candidate
22. Not because of racism
23. Because of Comey
24. Not because of Comey
Originally posted by Surtur
1. He won because of Facebook and its inability or unwillingness to crack down on fake news
Actually fair. Trump had one of the lowest truth:falsehood ratio Politifact ever recorded, and lots of it involved debunked anti-Clinton conspiracy theories that circulated on Facebook (and on here, thanks to a particular poster).
3. Because of low voter turnout
Primary reason.
6. Because of white male resentment
Yep. Trump's base was old white males without a college degree who disliked "the establishment", immigrants, and probably the LGBT community too.
7. Because of Russia after all?
Outright vote tinkering is unlikely, but they did apparently communicate with the Trump camp, and may have leaked those emails.
8. Because the left and coastal elites shamed Trump supporters
Underrreporting is possible, but probably doesn't explain everything; if Clinton got similar voter turnouts to Obama, she'd have won easily.
10. Because the Democratic Party establishment didn't push Bernie Sanders
Very possibly.
13. Because of Gary Johnson and Jill Stein
Very possibly.
16. Because college educated Americans are out of touch
They didn't get how many stupid people there are, yeah.
19. Because he remembered 'forgotten men, women' of America
AKA white males who felt marginalized but then targeted even more marginalized groups like undocumented immigrants.
20. Because Democrats focused more on turning out supporters than growing the base
That might be the opposite.
23. Because of Comey
Basically.
My guess is that if you remove one of: Comey, white blue collar voters, or the low Democratic turnout, Hillary wins.
Originally posted by The Ellimist
If you put a gun to them and made them vote, I'd guess > 90% would go for Hillary.
Originally posted by ArtificialGlory
I think you'd guess wrong, then.
In what universe do that many Stein supporters go for a guy who disagrees with her on close to literally everything?
Even still, there was obviously no gun put to their heads forcing them to choose. They'd sooner would have not voted at all, wrote-in Harambe, or even went with Trump.
At the least it's break even, but it's fair to say that they're more likely to vote for Hillary over Trump if no "better" in their mind alternative existed.
Originally posted by The Ellimist
In what universe do that many Stein supporters go for a guy who disagrees with her on close to literally everything?At the least it's break even, but it's fair to say that they're more likely to vote for Hillary over Trump if no "better" in their mind alternative existed.
I don't know, really. I think that staying home and looking at deviant porn would've been their best alternative if there had been no alternative on the ballot.
In the end, though, even if we give all of Stein's and Johnson's votes to Clinton(an impossibility), Trump still wins.
Originally posted by The Ellimist
Is she going to be a few million below 2012 Obama? I'm honestly not sure. But how many of those votes were cut into by Trump, and how many just didn't show up?As for 2008, well, that will be difficult to replicate.
Those are the big questions. I believe it usually takes some weeks/months to complete the vote count in a national election. The complete numbers probably won't be available for a while.
I do think it's safe to assume that Trump did win quite a few of the white voters who voted for Obama in states like Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania. Many of these smaller counties in these states that were blue in 2008 and 2012 got flipped red.
1. Deleted emails
2. Democratic-leaning media outlets like Clinton News Network, MSNBC, Al-Jazeerrist
3. Bill
4. Weiner
5. Podesta
6. Comey
7. Assange
8. Wikileaks
9. Anonymous
10. Biased election polls
11. Great Wall of Trump
12. Obamacare
13. Obama
14. Millenials
15. Not millenials
16. BLM
17. LGBT
18. No moar guns
19. Socialism AKA Communism
20. Not Russia
21. Trump tapes
22. California
23. Make America great again
24. Time-Immemorial