And from the criticism found here:
https://www.themaven.net/economonitor/emerging-markets/deconstructing-shadowstats-part-2-in-search-of-an-alternative-measure-of-unemployment-1jGh1VQ7MEOtFIbiiKzS4Q?full=1
On the whole, then, the Kaiser survey points to a significantly larger number of people who could potentially be classified as LTDW than we get from BLS Table A-38, but it is still far short of Williams’ estimate of more than 26 million.
And with the Kaiser Survey, as he's using it, he purposefully omits all disabled people and 20% of the working population (older than 52 but younger than 64) that may also be long-term discouraged workers, too. So, to him, to fulfill his critique, he had to eliminate well over 20 million people so his critique of Shadow Stats numbers would work. Seems quite dishonest and his bias is showing. However, what also seems dishonest is that Williams, from Shadow stats, still won't release his method/and numbers breakdown for proper critique, according to that writer. Which would explain why I am not able to find anything to breakdown his numbers. And getting through his paywall wouldn't work, either, it seems. And I would rather buy pizza than $125 worth of unexplained data from Shadow Stats.
The "missing gap" in Williams' numbers is 26,114,100. Or about 26 million people to get to his 22-23% unemployment rate he reports for his unemployment Shadow Stat.
He concedes a major point:
...Of the roughly 32,500,000 people in that group who were not employed, about a third reported disabilities, leaving about 21,750,000 who were not employed but able to work....[this is where you dismisses the disabled as if they are imbeciles which is rather insulting on his part]...leaving 21 percent, or about 4,568,000 individuals, who wanted a job, were able to work, but had not looked within the past year.
...
The Kaiser study did not poll people in the half of the working age population who fall outside the prime working ages—those of high-school or college age, those of working age but older than 54 years, and the elderly. No doubt there are many people in those groups who also want to work, are able to work, and have not looked in the past year. That is likely to be particularly true among those in the 55 to 64-year age group, who account for about 20 percent of the entire population. However, it would presumably be less true of people of high-school or college age, or of the elderly. It seems like a reasonable guess that if the Kaiser survey were extended to all age groups, the number of people who wanted and were able to work, but who had not looked for work for more than a year, would roughly double, to around 9 million. Of those, a somewhat smaller number would actually be available for work.
Let's skip to the end. Based on his concessions, that's 4.6 million + 9 million = 13.6 million. That's gets us much closer to the 26 million figure Williams has and is clearly far more than the U6 statistic. Hence why I am critical of the Ux stat series for informing labor policy.
Can the remaining math be explained by the missing gap in disabled - who are being summarily dismissed by the critic - and the elderly who are over 52 to 64? Seems quite readily, in fact. Seems there is more than a comfortable enough margin of people left to get 13 more million. Again, Williams will not reveal the details on his modeling and surveying methods which is always a red flag. Regardless, even the critic is finding explanations that fill more than have the the 26 million people gap.
Regardless of this particular argument, the critic summarizes his position as follows:
In short, I can find no way to get anywhere close to Williams’ estimate of 26 million long-term discouraged workers using any remotely believable parameters for an attrition model.
Based on the 13.6 million additional people he found, that's gets him more than halfway. If we consider how he dismissed 20% of the population and the disabled, we have more than the missing 12.4 million needed to bridge that gap even if we assume most of those people just simply cannot work.
If I had access to data related to retirement rates by age, because there are some that retire in their 50s and early 60s, I could better estimate that remaining 12 million person gap to get us to the 26 million the critic outlines.
In conclusion, the Shadow Stat figure needs to be consumed with caution. However, it is much closer to reality when it comes to summarizing true unemployment in the US. The reason why many people, when considering unemployment, thinks 4.6% seems woefully low, is because their personal experiences are much closer to 1/4 people being unemployed, not 1 in 20 as the U3 statistic would have us believe.