Just a couple implications, but nothing overtly definitive.
Lightsabers: A Guide to Weapons of the Force (2018) states that Mace "nearly overpowered Darth Sidious, forcing him into a corner and holding him at blade point.":
https://i.imgur.com/O0zF2n0.jpg
Ultimate Star Wars states that Mace "seemed to be winning", until Anakin intervened:
https://i.imgur.com/wWDCtTl.jpg
And in Secrets of the Jedi, Luke states that Mace "might have bested the Dark Lord in combat", had Anakin not intervened:
https://i.imgur.com/Owjnrob.jpg
Sidious most certainly did allow Mace to win that fight; ive illustrated several points from the film alone that points this out but im going to post a link that will shed even more light on this subject... if you have the time to read it that is;
Btw, my english is far from being good. So I would like to ask, is that quote possibly open to interpretation? I mean, the quote as a whole, is reffering to scene. So, if Mace indeed won a saber duel, it could be called "winning". But if Palpatine let him won that duel, in this scene Mace is still "winning" doesn't he? Just a reason is different. Can it be interpretaded in either of those ways?