quote:

Everybody here is under estimating the power of Batman.



Enough with the "they're not sold on Affleck" shit. Audiences were not sold on Michael Keaton. They were not sold on Heath Ledger. Each of their films broke the opening weekend record so clearly the casting controversy did not mean anything. Audiences generally hated Batman Returns - and it showed in the films terrible box office legs. There were major changes with casting afterwards - did it affect the box office? Of course not. Batman Forever broke Jurassic Park's opening weekend record, becoming the first film to open to $50 million. While nothing can excuse Batman & Robin, even BATMAN BEGINS - which everybody considered a a box office disappointing when it opened (10 years ago today, funny enough) - inflates to $261 million, which in reality is near or over $300 million if it was in 3D.



Those are all just facts.



BATMAN is the only character that every age group thinks it cool - little kids, teenagers, adults. There is real tangible enthusiasm for the character among every age group. In 7 films, the character's movies have broken the opening weekend record 4 times. It still holds the admissions record (The Dark Knight) while a 5th movie, TDKR, would have almost certainly broke the admissions record had there been major shooting. Batman is the most popular fictional character in pop culture within the United States, and it really isn't close. Be it the 1960s, 1980s, 1990s, or the 2000s - Batmania has struck repeatedly throughout history. There is something about the coolness of the black costumes, the car, the bat cave. He has no super powers. Now, THE DARK KNIGHT trilogy is the most popular film series of the new millennium. THE DARK KNIGHT is the most popular and influential blockbuster film of the 2000's. The Dark Knight Rises was very well received. The Batman Arkham video games are enormous.



Reality is that the next Batman movie was always going to challenge box office records whenever it arrived. The character is just too popular.



It's almost impossible to make a serious prediction without understanding the context of certain numbers and what it means within that context. You can't make accurate inferences from numbers if you do not know or understand the context. Just can't do it.



THE DARK KNIGHT's opening weekend, with inflation and $3D, is about $225 million.

THE DARK KNIGHT RISES opening weekend, with inflation and 3D, is about $200 million.



TDKR lost millions in it's opening weekend from the shooting. While it is impossible to tell, I would guess conservatively the film lost at least $20 million opening weekend. If that were in 3D, that would put TDKR's opening weekend over $230 million when fully adjusted. These are backed up many things. Tracking at the time had it as the most anticipated film since 1999. It's $30.6 million midnights is enormous for having no 3D and represented an unusually large share of it's final opening day. Fabio and others reported night showing attendance drastically under performing mid day and pre sales. The shooting had an enormous impact on the casual walk up movie goer. I firmly believe that TDKR would topped $190 million opening weekend had there been no shooting. With 3D, that puts the opening weekend around $235 million.



I don't think a BEN AFFLECK solo Batman film would open to $235 million. But if you think for a second it would open under, say, $190 million territory, you have pretty much no evidence at all to support that claim and are basically just talking out of your ass.



Superman isn't as popular as Batman, but reality is overall, he is the second most popular super hero and clearly the most famous world wide. MAN OF STEEL outgrossed every starter Marvel movie with $700 million, while his domestic gross is topped only by Iron Man 1. Everybody hailed CAPTAIN AMERICA: THE WINTER SOLIDER as a mega smash break out and that's films 95/256 weren't close to Man of Steel's 128/292. Even with Cap having a month to himself and "amazing" reviews while Man of Steel faced absurd competition and "lukewarm word of mouth", Captain America couldn't get in Superman's zip code. The point is that the character of Superman is on a totally different level overall than any of the Marvel hero's, including Iron Man.



Getting into it a little more, there is a very strong argument to be made that MAN OF STEEL would have made substantially more money had it not opened just before a string of massive tent pole films were slated to open.



Weekend 2

It's easy to say MAN OF STEEL's 64% drop represented less than super word of mouth. But note that WORLD WAR Z and MONSTERS UNIVERSITY combined for $148 million that weekend. That's basically the same as having one mega tentpole open to $148 million in your second weekend. How many big blockbuster movies will fall under 60% in their 2nd weekend when facing another $148 million opener? Not many. AGE OF ULTRON just dropped 60% against only HOT PURSUIT and it's measly $13 million opening weekend.



CONTEXT MATTERS.



Does anybody here think that, if MAN OF STEEL's 2nd weekend only featured a film like HOT PURSUIT opening to a small gross, it would had dropped substantially less than 64.5%? I certainly do. That 64.5% drop is probably in the 54-56% ball park, which is very healthy.



Weekends 3, 4, and 5 were all more of the same. In addition to the big holdovers (WWZ and MU from weekend 2) combining for $65 million, weekend 3 saw THE HEAT and WHITE HOUSE DOWN combine for $55 million. MAN OF STEEL fell 49%. Weekend 4 found DESPICABLE ME 2 and THE LONE RANGER combining for $112 million, while the remaining 4 holdovers combined for $88 million. MAN OF STEEL fell 45%.



Am I say MAN OF STEEL had amazing word of mouth? No.

Am I saying MAN OF STEEL's less than impressive box office legs were much moreso due to huge competition"? Yes.



MAN OF STEEL wasn't as popular as it would have been had the film been a bit better, but I don't think it turned anybody truly off from the character. Had Warner Brother opened it in mid July as they had with the Batman movies, it almost certainly would have opened similarly but would have faced a much softer schedule. In my view, MAN OF STEEL would have grossed another $30 to $40 million total under more normal market conditions.



Batman is the biggest character in the country, while Superman - and in particular Cavill's version - remains very popular in their own right. The concept of bringing Batman and Superman together on the big screen holds more monetary potential than any other concept in film. The novelty factor of seeing these two ultra popular characters together is simply enormous and can't be replicated.



Reality is that a bunch of b- level hero's who had - IRON MAN aside - had minor hit films coming together in Avengers earned $208 million. $208 million. What the **** do you think combining two hero's who are, point blank, a lot more popular in their own right than any of the Avengers are, is going to do? It will somehow do LESS?



In a wise move, WB has avoided making films which look generic ala any Marvel movie. The "VS" theme is pure genius from a marketing perspective and allows this film to take a very different approach and angle than any other comic book film, which will generally negate any comic book super hero fatigue. Watching Marvel try to replicate it with less popular and much more played out characters 2 months later with CIVIL WAR is likely to get cringe worthy at some point.



The title sells EXACTLY what the film is. BATMAN VS ****ING SUPERMAN. It's going to be a rumble.



In another wise move, the release date couldn't be better. While each of the last 2 Superman movies were severely damaged by the studio's scheduling incompetence, they've chosen a simply inspired choice here. Though Feb and March have a few serious films opening, none of them look to challenge anything beyond the 50 or 60 million range at best. BVS will collect buzz all for itself generally for a 3 month period of time. The Hunger Games showed March has the potential to deliver big time grosses. The date also means BATMAN v SUPERMAN should be able to get pretty much whatever record it wants for theater counts, show times, etc. Everybody is going to get the hell out of the way.



With INFLATION and 3D, THE HUNGER GAMES opening weekend is right around $200 million. BATMAN V SUPERMAN is going to sell substantially more tickets on opening weekend than THE HUNGER GAMES will.



Jurassic World didn't open with enough show times. Star Wars opens in December in 2015 and Episode 8 opens over Memorial day in 2017, spreading out the gross. The demand clearly is not there with Marvel.



BATMAN v SUPERMAN represents are best bet to really get a feel for what max capacity opening weekend gross is. Whatever the character of Batman lost from Bale/Nolan is more than made for overall with the addition of Superman. The concept is enormous. The release date is perfect.



This is going to be the biggest opener in history, and I would guess the record is going to stand for some time.

quote: (post)

Originally posted by Zack M
Wall of text, but this poster on the BO forums mentions some good things:

quote: (post)

Originally posted by Zack M
Wall of text, but this poster on the BO forums mentions some good things:

quote: (post)

Originally posted by Inhuman
Holy shit lol

Didnt think there were more die hard dc'ers than you.
Apparently your favorite sites you frequent are full of them.

quote: (post)

Originally posted by Zack M
It's not a DC site, moron. It's from BO forums.

http://forums.boxofficetheory.com/f...x-office-clubs/

quote: (post)

Originally posted by Inhuman
You must be a doofus if you think thats what i meant.
Never said it was a DC site. Ill simplify it for you.

More than likely your favorite movie sites and such you frequent are usually full of die hard fanatics like yourself. Explains the endless amounts of links to blogs, articles, ect consisting of imaginary numbers and conclusions that are nothing more than hopeful speculation.

quote: (post)

Originally posted by Quincy
You don't think the logic of that post is pretty sound?

quote: (post)

Originally posted by Quincy
You don't think the logic of that post is pretty sound?

quote: (post)

Originally posted by Zack M
It's INHUMAN. He never brings anything to the table other than his trolling self.

quote: (post)

Originally posted by Inhuman
lol,Thats like Hitler calling OJ Simpson a disgusting murderer